Need advice on open Mare

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TJ
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Postby TJ » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:51 am

Jeff wrote:http://www.pedigreequery.com/salty+strike

Looks like Cosmah line is still thriving in the popping out the graded stakes winners department. Same family as Pining :D


Hi Jeff,
Take it easy...seems this appears to be a bit of a stretch, isn't it? Pining has a RF to Cosmah and Almahmoud. This filly just has one slice of Cosmah in her 5th generation:>) TJ

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Postby pfrsue » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:36 am

Jeff wrote:I like the look of the sire; Sought After, has kind of a unique look to him in the photo.


Very Quarter Horse-y, I would have said. And...I dunno...something about front legs...


http://www.ranchosanmiguel.net/pdfs/sou ... ctba12.pdf

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Postby Jeff » Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:40 pm

TJ wrote:
Jeff wrote:http://www.pedigreequery.com/salty+strike

Looks like Cosmah line is still thriving in the popping out the graded stakes winners department. Same family as Pining :D


Hi Jeff,
Take it easy...seems this appears to be a bit of a stretch, isn't it? Pining has a RF to Cosmah and Almahmoud. This filly just has one slice of Cosmah in her 5th generation:>) TJ


No RF, but still tail female to Cosmah, looks like the female family went into decline for a couple generations after Cosmah and then began an ascent.

Pining's female family looks to have gone into a bit of a decline after Cosmah also, but if one stirrup of the family can make a comeback, so can another. A stallion like Smart Strike a big boost for the female family.

Pining's 1/2 siblings by Halo line stallions More Than Ready, Saint Ballado, and Southern Halo had some ability, especially the Southern Halo, looks like they were the inspiration to go with a Halo broodmare sire in her dam's breeding to Pine Bluff. What goes up must come down, but a Blue Hen female family can't be kept down. They do rebound.

Jeff

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Postby Jeff » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:22 pm

pfrsue wrote:
Jeff wrote:I like the look of the sire; Sought After, has kind of a unique look to him in the photo.


Very Quarter Horse-y, I would have said. And...I dunno...something about front legs...


http://www.ranchosanmiguel.net/pdfs/sou ... ctba12.pdf



If you'r gonna be an unraced stallion at stud, this is the pedigree to have a shot. I don't see anything specific about his front legs, but 'unraced' could make me start seeing things if I looked long enough. :)

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Postby pfrsue » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:37 pm

Jeff wrote:If you'r gonna be an unraced stallion at stud, this is the pedigree to have a shot. I don't see anything specific about his front legs, but 'unraced' could make me start seeing things if I looked long enough. :)


I looked for about three seconds. :)

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Postby Jeff » Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:32 am

http://www.pedigreequery.com/graven+angel

Here's one I like, the BB site says she's a stakes winner, but no info. on the pedigree query.

2X3 linebreeding, not typical for a runner, but great broodmare potential.

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Postby kimberley mine » Sun Sep 16, 2012 11:17 am

Jeff wrote:

No RF, but still tail female to Cosmah, looks like the female family went into decline for a couple generations after Cosmah and then began an ascent.

Pining's female family looks to have gone into a bit of a decline after Cosmah also, but if one stirrup of the family can make a comeback, so can another. A stallion like Smart Strike a big boost for the female family.

Pining's 1/2 siblings by Halo line stallions More Than Ready, Saint Ballado, and Southern Halo had some ability, especially the Southern Halo, looks like they were the inspiration to go with a Halo broodmare sire in her dam's breeding to Pine Bluff. What goes up must come down, but a Blue Hen female family can't be kept down. They do rebound.

Jeff


Yes, but....

More than Ready and Smart Strike are elite-level stallions. Saint Ballado was an elite-level stallion. Southern Halo was an elite-level stallion in Argentina, where the broodmare population is slightly different than North America. Yet even with objectively GOOD stallions like More Than Ready and Southern Halo and Saint Ballado, the best True Love could do was a MSW winner who competed well enough at allowance level to stay there a while, but could never get past the first condition, and a horse who was exported to Europe, banished back to NA after only a few starts, picked up a maiden special at Woodbine and dropped way down the ladder until finishing his career in the wrecking yard of Mountaineer.

Pining herself won, but wasn't getting money often enough to keep in training. Her foals are not by elite-level stallions, so they won't be getting the kind of help that Lake Huron (dam of Salty Strike) did with Smart Strike, Cozzene, and Include.

You only can inherit what your parents give you (aka you can't get a grey from a chestnut and a bay). If racing talent wanes across four-five generations, as has happened with this branch of the Almahmoud family, then statistically, the most likely answer is that the mares do not have that talent to pass on. Not "it's buried," not "it will come back," but, it's not THERE. It can be regained over several generations....Lake Huron being a good example...BUT that requires being bred to stallions who are passing on racing ability above and beyond what the mares bring to the table, AND it requires going to those stallions consistently to make up for what a mare herself lacks, AND it requires brutal culling from the broodmare band of the mares who are not producing.

In a sense, that is what Patchen Wilkes is trying to do with their family of white horses. Patchen Beauty was the best racehorse of her siblings, and she has been bred to ham and eggs racehorse stallions in order to get competitive runners. Are they likely to get a stakes winner out of this family? At the moment, unlikely. Are they getting winners? Yes. Presumably they're having fun, too.

That said, OP has stated that he is trying to run this as a business, in which case the mare did not get in foal, has only gotten in foal every other year, and despite her bloodlines, her actual race record, the race record of her foals, and the racing and production of her immediate relatives is not commercially attractive. Potential RF or not, potential genetic gold or not, purely as a BUSINESS consideration he would be better off putting her under saddle for 30 days and then finding her a riding home, than spending money on board, farrier care, vet care, and stud fees for another year--and then either claiming a nice young filly off the track or buying a nicer mare in foal with the stud fee paid at the November sales.

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Postby madelyn » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:30 pm

Bang on, kimberly mine.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Postby Jeff » Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:08 pm

Kimberly mine,

Thank You for stating your position. My first witness: Sunday Silence http://www.pedigreequery.com/sunday+silence
Earnings: $4,968,554 #1 SIRE IN THE WORLD

Note his 2nd dam Mountain Flower, unimpressive race record, $2,378, not bad for 1964, but not steller, his 3rd dam Eedelweiss, unraced, his 4th dam Dowager; nothing much there either.

Had your logic been used on Mountain Flower, the graded stakes winner Wishing Well; dam of the greatest sire the world has ever known; SUNDAY SILENCE would never have been born.

Every thoroughbred has the potential, with the right alignment of genetics, to produce an exceptional runner. (Edited to add, if you don't believe this, then you have no business whatsoever breeding thoroughbred horses whether a black type family or not, if you don't believe there is the possibility that you could get a foal who is a good runner, then you are faithless and have no business breeding race horses.)IMHO

I firmly believe that Pining possess the genetic strength to produce a superior runner and is no cull.

We all know, by and large, TB's eventually get murdered, sent to slaughter, the minority are rehomed. I recall when I used to own Double Dial, the 1/2 sister to multiple G-1 winner John Henry, when I rescued her 1/2 starved in her 20's and made sure she had a home for life. So much for black type snobs having more consideration for black type mares. Black type mares EQUALLY with non-black type mares get DUMPED, just some sooner than others.

Those who deal exclusively in black type mares, the rich and famous; I guarantee you, they do not frequent this board, what happens all to often here, is people seem to feel the best way to make their horse seem more valuable to them, is to bash everybody else's horse. The easiest way to make your horse look good, is to try and make everybody else's horse look bad. The rich and famous, the elite are to kind and gracious to come on this board and rub black type in our face, they just go to a sale and spend a few hundred thousand and then take him to the track and win a few hundred thousand more or not. All the WANNABEES here trying to convince somebody else to cull their mares just shows who they really are. :idea: and what they'r really not.

Jeff






kimberley mine wrote:
Jeff wrote:

No RF, but still tail female to Cosmah, looks like the female family went into decline for a couple generations after Cosmah and then began an ascent.

Pining's female family looks to have gone into a bit of a decline after Cosmah also, but if one stirrup of the family can make a comeback, so can another. A stallion like Smart Strike a big boost for the female family.

Pining's 1/2 siblings by Halo line stallions More Than Ready, Saint Ballado, and Southern Halo had some ability, especially the Southern Halo, looks like they were the inspiration to go with a Halo broodmare sire in her dam's breeding to Pine Bluff. What goes up must come down, but a Blue Hen female family can't be kept down. They do rebound.

Jeff


Yes, but....

More than Ready and Smart Strike are elite-level stallions. Saint Ballado was an elite-level stallion. Southern Halo was an elite-level stallion in Argentina, where the broodmare population is slightly different than North America. Yet even with objectively GOOD stallions like More Than Ready and Southern Halo and Saint Ballado, the best True Love could do was a MSW winner who competed well enough at allowance level to stay there a while, but could never get past the first condition, and a horse who was exported to Europe, banished back to NA after only a few starts, picked up a maiden special at Woodbine and dropped way down the ladder until finishing his career in the wrecking yard of Mountaineer.

Pining herself won, but wasn't getting money often enough to keep in training. Her foals are not by elite-level stallions, so they won't be getting the kind of help that Lake Huron (dam of Salty Strike) did with Smart Strike, Cozzene, and Include.

You only can inherit what your parents give you (aka you can't get a grey from a chestnut and a bay). If racing talent wanes across four-five generations, as has happened with this branch of the Almahmoud family, then statistically, the most likely answer is that the mares do not have that talent to pass on. Not "it's buried," not "it will come back," but, it's not THERE. It can be regained over several generations....Lake Huron being a good example...BUT that requires being bred to stallions who are passing on racing ability above and beyond what the mares bring to the table, AND it requires going to those stallions consistently to make up for what a mare herself lacks, AND it requires brutal culling from the broodmare band of the mares who are not producing.

In a sense, that is what Patchen Wilkes is trying to do with their family of white horses. Patchen Beauty was the best racehorse of her siblings, and she has been bred to ham and eggs racehorse stallions in order to get competitive runners. Are they likely to get a stakes winner out of this family? At the moment, unlikely. Are they getting winners? Yes. Presumably they're having fun, too.

That said, OP has stated that he is trying to run this as a business, in which case the mare did not get in foal, has only gotten in foal every other year, and despite her bloodlines, her actual race record, the race record of her foals, and the racing and production of her immediate relatives is not commercially attractive. Potential RF or not, potential genetic gold or not, purely as a BUSINESS consideration he would be better off putting her under saddle for 30 days and then finding her a riding home, than spending money on board, farrier care, vet care, and stud fees for another year--and then either claiming a nice young filly off the track or buying a nicer mare in foal with the stud fee paid at the November sales.[/quo
Last edited by Jeff on Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Jeff » Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:50 pm

http://www.pedigreequery.com/damascus

Damascus, RF 4X5 to the great Selene through full brothers Pharamond and Sickle.

To bad his sire line has dwindled, but he remains strong in high class pedigrees.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/big+brown

3X4 Damascus through 3/4 genetic equivalents Edge, and Syrian Circle.

Jeff

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Postby TJ » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:30 pm

One thing I've learned in this business, you truly never know where a good horse will come from. There are many small owner's and breeder's that persevere through hope and dreams...some break through and other's don't. It's been like that from the early days of racing and it will never change unless they buy up and throw away lesser bred horses....as was attempted in this interesting article from 1900. Pointing out how some champions may never have been bred if not for people that believed a good horse can come from culls, not just through blue-bloods stock. TJ
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-fr ... 5B808CF1D3

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Postby Jeff » Sun Sep 16, 2012 4:04 pm

TJ wrote:One thing I've learned in this business, you truly never know where a good horse will come from. There are many small owner's and breeder's that persevere through hope and dreams...some break through and other's don't. It's been like that from the early days of racing and it will never change unless they buy up and throw away lesser bred horses....as was attempted in this interesting article from 1900. Pointing out how some champions may never have been bred if not for people that believed a good horse can come from culls, not just through blue-bloods stock. TJ
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-fr ... 5B808CF1D3


Thank You TJ,

Excellent article.

Jeff

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Postby kimberley mine » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:32 pm

Jeff wrote:Every thoroughbred has the potential, with the right alignment of genetics, to produce an exceptional runner. (Edited to add, if you don't believe this, then you have no business whatsoever breeding thoroughbred horses whether a black type family or not, if you don't believe there is the possibility that you could get a foal who is a good runner, then you are faithless and have no business breeding race horses.)IMHO


And every human child born has the potential to be an elite athlete--except they don't. Either they will not have the physical potential (VO2max, right combination of fast-twitch and slow-twitch muscles, anaerobic threshold capability, symmetrical bone structure, etc) or they will not have the mental potential (ability to keep to a training regimen, ability to continue training despite pain, etc) or both. A small number actually DO have the physical and mental potential to become elite athletes--via inherited traits from their parents that is strengthened by upbringing. Of that small number, an even smaller number will have the money to enter high-level training and an even smaller number still will have the physical abilities, mental abilities, monetary resources, coaching, training, and frankly good luck to make it to the elite levels.

Whether you BELIEVE that every human woman has the potential to be the mother of an Olympic athlete is irrelevant. Either she and the child's father have the genetics for high-level athleticism to pass along, or they do not. If both parents' VO2max is 10% lower than the median human VO2max, then even with training it is unlikely that the child will have sufficient oxygen uptake capacity to compete with the top 20%, let alone the top 5%.

Inheritance of racing ability in thoroughbreds has been estimated at 50% or so. Even in foals born from elite sires out of elite mares. http://www.animal-science.org/content/51/3/582.full.pdf

So, sure, every thoroughbred mare has the POTENTIAL to be the dam of a superstar. Not every mare has the reality. Even elite mares.....although with 50% heritability, those elite mares are much, much more likely to produce a runner with some ability than a mare who showed that she didn't have much running ability herself.

Of course, seeing if a mare has the genetic potential to breed a superstar is really freakin' difficult if you can't get her in foal to begin with!

I firmly believe that Pining possess the genetic strength to produce a superior runner and is no cull.


That's nice.

We all know, by and large, TB's eventually get murdered, sent to slaughter, the minority are rehomed.


Yes, which is why I suggested retraining the mare as a riding animal if she is not going to remain in the original poster's broodmare band. Sound, sane, quiet trail or family horses are much more likely to find a good home than horses without jobs. Trainers usually know who is looking for horses and can help place them. Horses of any age who are not broke to ride have a hard time finding places.

The rich and famous, the elite are to kind and gracious to come on this board and rub black type in our face, they just go to a sale and spend a few hundred thousand and then take him to the track and win a few hundred thousand more or not.


I would like to make known to you another mare who had a modest race record and a blue hen for a fourth dam: Daughter of Wolf.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/daughter+of+wolf

This mare has been my ur-example of a GOOD mare for a small breeder: she ran well, came from well-performing stock, and her produce record is...wait for it....really doggone good. She has no blacktype herself and although one of her foals has blacktype, it's little blacktype from a minor stakes. She sold in Keeneland November in 2004 or 2005 (I forget) for a couple thousand.

But....

This mare had 10 winners out of 13 foals to race, and her combined progeny earnings from those 10 winners was over $900,000. Six of those ten ran out over $100,000 and of those six, two ran out more than $170,000. Except for that one gelding, the rest made their money in claimers and allowances, but they kept running and they kept winning and they kept making enough money to be worth the cost of training them.

As a broodmare, this mare got in foal and stayed in foal from the year she began her broodmare career until her pensioning and later death from colic a year later. Looking at the birth dates of her foals, most of them look like she took on one cover, and a couple on two covers.

If the OP, who breeds in PA, had a mare like that, even bought as an older mare and bred with maybe 3-4 foals left before she was too old, and that foal performed to the average racing class of this mare (8 wins and $100,000), then 10% of the win purse in breeders awards adds up pretty darn quick.

So, no, you don't need a blacktype mare to be profitable at a regional level. A foal by a good regional sire (e.g. E Dubai or Freud) out of a mare like Daughter of Wolf could probably be sold privately for a decent price, and with the mare's history of good production be a profitable horse for the new owners as well as bring in breeders awards for the OP. Since the mare would get in foal and stay in foal, the cost per foal is the cost of keeping a single year of the mare plus stud fee, as opposed to TWO years of keeping the mare plus stud fee. One has a good chance to be a successful business proposition, the other will most likely lead to business losses.

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Postby Jeff » Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:33 am

With her RF to Cosmah, Pining has the potential to produce one runner to have higher earnings than all 10 of the other mare's put together. Graded stakes winners is the area where RF shines. Some people play the lottery with scratch off tickets, some go for the mega-millions. Pining's is the mega-million pedigree IMHO :D

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Postby Fireslam » Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:58 pm

Kimberly Mine, the only good thing about beating your head against the wall, is that it feels so good when you stop.