Griff,
I love his pedigree, love that Numbered Account RF, I'd have gone 3X3 with her in the pedigree too, but conventional wisdom says don't breed that close.
The next RF is through Selene 8S x 7S x 9S x 8S x 8S x 8D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D for a 6X6 equivalent.
With Caucasus for a 2nd damsire, he certainly should be a sound horse, capable of making lots of starts, hopefully he'll get better as he gets a little older and matures. Wish I could see him, sounds like he's quiet the looker.
Jeff
Need advice on open Mare
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- Patuxet
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1150
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
- Location: New England & Florida
As begiling a concept as The Rasmussen Factor may be -- and I've employed it in matings -- I have to admit that when statical mavens crunch the numbers the concept seems to prove to be somewhat less than as advertised. To wit:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/ra ... factor.htm
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... or-part-1/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2a/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2b/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2c/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2d/
http://www.pedigree.me.uk/Articles/rf2.htm
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/15 ... almahmoud/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/22 ... nclusions/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/04 ... -patterns/
http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/ra ... factor.htm
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... or-part-1/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2a/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2b/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2c/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2d/
http://www.pedigree.me.uk/Articles/rf2.htm
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/15 ... almahmoud/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/22 ... nclusions/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/04 ... -patterns/
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V
Patuxet wrote:As begiling a concept as The Rasmussen Factor may be -- and I've employed it in matings -- I have to admit that when statical mavens crunch the numbers the concept seems to prove to be somewhat less than as advertised. To wit:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/ra ... factor.htm
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... or-part-1/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2a/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2b/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2c/
http://fmitchell07.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... r-part-2d/
http://www.pedigree.me.uk/Articles/rf2.htm
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/15 ... almahmoud/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/22 ... nclusions/
http://ddink55.wordpress.com/2011/10/04 ... -patterns/
Hi Patuxet,
Thanks for posting all those articles, always interested in reading what the 21st century thinks of Leon's work. It was a different time and a lot more work was put into such research in his day...lots of hours put in, libraries of extra large books, notes, patience and paper work. It's a lot easier today to aim and click on a computer and have a 5 or more generation pedigree appear before your eyes.
I was wondering which superior producing mares you sought out in creating your RF foals....if you would, could you post the mares and which 1/2 or full siblings were responsible for the RF in your horse. Not the actual name of your foal....as it's best to remain anonymous. Thank you, TJ
http://www.robertsfox.com/fabersham_on_factor.htm
http://www.equicross.com/Bookcontents.html
http://www.pedigreequery.com/chocolate+candy2
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ryehill+dreamer
http://www.pedigreequery.com/stirred+up3
http://www.pedigreequery.com/sensational+slam
http://www.pedigreequery.com/cowtown+cat
http://www.pedigreequery.com/henrythenavigator
http://www.pedigreequery.com/pretty+discreet
http://www.equicross.com/Bookcontents.html
http://www.pedigreequery.com/chocolate+candy2
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ryehill+dreamer
http://www.pedigreequery.com/stirred+up3
http://www.pedigreequery.com/sensational+slam
http://www.pedigreequery.com/cowtown+cat
http://www.pedigreequery.com/henrythenavigator
http://www.pedigreequery.com/pretty+discreet
One of the greatest examples of the RF in this era is none other than FRANKEL. He carries the RF 4x5x5 to Natalma, through half siblings Northern Dancer and Spring Adieu.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frankel3
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frankel3
Street Sense is another in recent times showing a 5x4 RF to Natalma through 1/2 siblings Northern Dancer and Raise The Standard. TJ
http://www.pedigreequery.com/street+sense
http://www.pedigreequery.com/street+sense
What is the percentage using the established and proven formula that are unsuccessful and what is the baseline for success? Is it three horses out of 10 that need to be good to be considered proven or is it one? Seems the results are slightly skewed so maybe those who think the data provided is useful could expand on what the baseline is?
TJ wrote:One of the greatest examples of the RF in this era is none other than FRANKEL. He carries the RF 4x5x5 to Natalma, through half siblings Northern Dancer and Spring Adieu.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frankel3
How much better are three crosses than two and is this 100% successful compared to, let's say JUST a 4 x 5 or maybe a 2 x 4 and since there's been so much research done, is it two positions on the sire and one on the dam or two on the dam and one on the sire and is it in position one?
Jeff wrote:Table 3. Distribution of Racing Class for RF and Non-RF Stallions
G1 G2 G3 SW ALW MDN n/wr UNR
ALL 30.5 17.3 16.2 13.0 12.4 4.5 2.6 3.7
RF 30.6 18.4 18.4 12.2 10.2 4.1 2.0 4.1
NON-RF 30.5 17.2 16.0 13.0 12.5 4.6 2.6 3.6
Looks like RF is an advantage to get a graded stakes win.
I'll take that.
Jeff
Could you provide more details and also what positions in the pedigree for G1 RF? Is it 2 x 4, 3 x 4, 3 x 3, 3 x 4?
http://www.robertsfox.com/fabersham_on_factor.htm
There are several examples of graded winners on this link, it's probably a 10 year old article though.
I found several more recent RF stakes horses this way:
Google: ironmaidenthoroughbreds Rasmussen Factor and it links to
several others.
There are several examples of graded winners on this link, it's probably a 10 year old article though.
I found several more recent RF stakes horses this way:
Google: ironmaidenthoroughbreds Rasmussen Factor and it links to
several others.
TJ wrote:One of the greatest examples of the RF in this era is none other than FRANKEL. He carries the RF 4x5x5 to Natalma, through half siblings Northern Dancer and Spring Adieu.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frankel3
Seven consecutive G-1 wins in Europe, amazing!
Jeff
Tappiano wrote:TJ wrote:One of the greatest examples of the RF in this era is none other than FRANKEL. He carries the RF 4x5x5 to Natalma, through half siblings Northern Dancer and Spring Adieu.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frankel3
How much better are three crosses than two and is this 100% successful compared to, let's say JUST a 4 x 5 or maybe a 2 x 4 and since there's been so much research done, is it two positions on the sire and one on the dam or two on the dam and one on the sire and is it in position one?
Hi Tappiano,
As far as the RF qualifications are concerned, position within the pedigree is not of a concern...although there are 3 crosses of Natalma showing, the two showing through Northern Dancer in reality isn't a true RF because it is not through two siblings. Yet because there is a sibling from Natalma in the dam's pedigree it allows for the 3 Natalma crosses as being inbred.
To think 3 crosses would add to a single (2 crosses) RF to Natalma would be a guess, but the horse who carries the 3 crosses is after all Frankel, so maybe that means something? Yet in the other example of the 2 crosses to Natalma was Street Sense....so it's a tough call. TJ
If it's a fair study what percentage of horses with this RF turn out to be claimers? I'm not questioning that it exists, I'm questioning what the success rate is. To use it as a sales pitch simply because there might be one good runner when there are 1000 who are not is misleading. A 5K mare is not going to sell for 10K in the auction ring just because the foal she's carrying is bred similarly to Frankel or any other RF pedigree.
Tappiano wrote:If it's a fair study what percentage of horses with this RF turn out to be claimers? I'm not questioning that it exists, I'm questioning what the success rate is. To use it as a sales pitch simply because there might be one good runner when there are 1000 who are not is misleading. A 5K mare is not going to sell for 10K in the auction ring just because the foal she's carrying is bred similarly to Frankel or any other RF pedigree.
Hi Tappiano,
If you're talking about our ongoing discussion, it's just that....it's not a RF study or a "sales pitch"...it's simply some examples of what the RF has produced. If you are referring to the other links posted by Jeff and Patuxet, I couldn't answer as to whether or not they are fair studies. There is a lot of competition with breeding advisers and such, so who knows if they fall on a curve.....also keep in mind, Mr. Rasmussen is long passed and can't dispute any of these other studies. I do believe you won't find as many RF pedigree's in the horse population as you will find outcrosses and inbreeding to sires in a pedigree.
I have no figures, other than my own research which was done as a young stud myself:>) I was impressed with John Nerud who incorporated the RF into his foals when possible and the reason why I studied the RF. Strange too is that Tappiano was owned by Mrs, Genter whose greatest achievement (among so many that she had) came through a RF colt bred by Tartan farm (where Mrs. Genter would keep her breeding stock) who's breeding was scheduled by John Nerud....a RF advocate. When Tartan was dispersing all its stock, Nerud advised Mrs. Genter to buy that RF foal for $70,000, it was Unbridled. Here's a nice story about Mrs. Genter, Nerud and Nafzger:
http://call-to-post.com/cms/index.php?o ... &Itemid=18
Today I try to employ it in all phases of the business, claiming, buying privately, public sales and even when deciding on the proper training program to put a horse through...I rely on breeding very much when developing the proper training program that will benefit a particular horse due to his inherent ability. I can only speak for myself when I say I think it has merit as well as affording an edge in the business. TJ
Last edited by TJ on Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.