RON THE GREEK exposed potential extraordinaire in LeComte-G3

[Mahubah]

I'm certainly not about to peg Ron the Greek as a superhorse, but given that the chart shows him as 15 lengths off the lead after 6 furlongs, he had to have shaded 25 seconds for his last 480 yards if I'm doing the math right. Not a bad closing run, especially considering that he flew wide on the final turn.

[da hossman]

RTG did win impressively, but I was more impressed by Winslow Homer. And I have to comment that Maximus Ruler ran a very brave race, making all the fractions and not throwing in the towel in only his 3rd start. If he learns to rate MR could be a serious horse. Also impressive was a 3yo 1st time starter that won a MSW @ the Fair Grounds while running very greenly through the stretch, FORMAGGIO.

As far as pedigree goes, he is a Dynaformer out of a Danzig mare so I don't think distance will be a problem for Formaggio.

As far as the "look of eagles" goes, it is a great poetic phrase and the John Taintor Foote short story is a must read for all racing fans. I think the "look" is a very personal interpretation, a subjective thing that is often not seen by everyone looking at the same horse at the same time. If FOS says he saw it, then good for FOS. I can't say that I have "seen" it as much as I may have "felt" it, which for me may have only been in when seeing a race live.

[bdw0617]

RTG did win impressively, but I was more impressed by Winslow Homer. And I have to comment that Maximus Ruler ran a very brave race, making all the fractions and not throwing in the towel in only his 3rd start. If he learns to rate MR could be a serious horse. Also impressive was a 3yo 1st time starter that won a MSW @ the Fair Grounds while running very greenly through the stretch, FORMAGGIO.

As far as pedigree goes, he is a Dynaformer out of a Danzig mare so I don't think distance will be a problem for Formaggio.

As far as the "look of eagles" goes, it is a great poetic phrase and the John Taintor Foote short story is a must read for all racing fans. I think the "look" is a very personal interpretation, a subjective thing that is often not seen by everyone looking at the same horse at the same time. If FOS says he saw it, then good for FOS. I can't say that I have "seen" it as much as I may have "felt" it, which for me may have only been in when seeing a race live.

the internal splits of the holy bull were 21 seconds, 24 seconds and 26 seconds.. roughly.

i'd take ron the greek over anything i saw in gulfstream. nothing in that race will run a step over a mile outside maybe williams kitten in allowence 2 turn races

[da hossman]

I agree, not impressive splits. However WH showed the ability to rate, decent cruising speed and more or less made the hole he came through.

It is only January and these horses should continue to improve as they mature.

[bdw0617]

lol, potential extraordinaire huh

[Georgerz]

Not the second coming of Secretariat, in my opinion.

[FOS]

hi bdw0617...hi Georgerz

lol, potential extraordinaire huh

The key word is potential...

...read on

Not the second coming of Secretariat, in my opinion.

Certainly not in the Risen Star...but it may not be that simple. Consider the following.

Secretariat's trainer Lucien Laurin (Secretariat's trainer) recognized (very early on) the potential that the 'Big Red' colt had, and Laurin had proven skills, knowledge, experience and downright ability to develop Big Red's potential into a horse for the ages.

In the case of Ron the Greek...I get a sense his trainer (Tom Amoss) didn't recognize (early on anyway) the colt's potential. It seems (to my way of thinking) that RTG may have been handled more like what some may consider a cheap (if you will) horse, than a potentially very good one. Even if/when trainer Amoss recognized the potential...he hasn't yet convinced me he has what it takes to not only best develop RTG's talent...but also get the sought after consistent results v good (and better) company.

Connecting some dots; first out...trainer Amoss ran Ron The Greek 6 1/2 furlongs at Hoosier (Indiana). Despite Hoosier's somewhat bull ring-like turns the big colt won, and was then shipped to Delta Downs (Louisiana), where he ran (second lifetime start) and again won. Ah ha...the colt was two for two (be it at Hoosier and Delta Downs) and his trainer (Amoss) then shipped RonTG to Remington Park (Oklahoma). Not very Lucien Lauren-like (if you will), do ya think ?

At Remington Park (Oklahoma) Ron the Greek ran well, finished very strong, and got up to be 4th (approx a length and a half behind the winner) in a $200k stakes race. Not bad for a colt that was accumulating frequent traveler miles, and arguably didn't go into that race as best prepared/rested/fresh as he may have been...nor did he have a rider on his back that was likely to best enhance his chances to be successful. Hmmm...not exactly Lucien Laurin-like management. Oh well.

Regardless RTG's fourth place finish (at Remington)...I liked what I saw of him, and hoped (if not expected) that once and for all he'd be managed and trained like a horse with genuine potential. After all, up until now it seemed pretty clear (from my distant view) that RTG was being handled more like a thoroughbred gypsy (if you will) than a colt with real potential.

After his short stint in Oklahoma, the decision was apparently made to ship the colt to the Fairgrounds.

Fast forward...after accumulating thousands of frequent traveler miles via horse van/transport...RTG found himself in a stall at the Fairgrounds. One could only hope he'd be allowed to settle in.

Ron the Greek was entered to run in the LeComte-G3. He appeared rested from his travels (including Hoosier to Delta, Delta to Remington, Remington to Fairgrounds) and looked fresh, strong, sharp and ready. He had apparently been training well and his work schedule seemed to be very nicely timed in advance of the LeComte.

RonTG won the LeComte impressively; rolling freight train-like down the lane, appearing to be a colt on a mission, and galloping out super strong. I know exactly what I saw in the LeComte and was confident (considering too what I saw in his previous start at Remington) the colt had potential extraordinaire.

It takes a special kinda horse to make a powerful sustained move like that, and finish as strong as he did (in both the LeComte and his previous start in the $200k stake at Remington). There's no faking it...he did it.

After Ron the Greek's Lecomte win, I was willing to give Amoss the benefit of any doubt (I may have had)...UNTIL he worked the colt 6 furlongs in a co-bullet 1:13 4/5 ten days prior to the race (on Wednesday Feb 10th). I wondered what was up, and my concerns (re how the colt was being trained/worked/managed going into the Risen Star) heightened.

When trainer Amoss worked RTG on Tuesday (Feb 16th)...going 4F in 49 3/5 (6/40) just 4 days before the mile and a sixteenth Risen Star (and just 6 days after a bullet 6F in 1:13 3/5), my concerns heightened SIGNIFICANTLY

Fast forward...after digesting it all (pre Risen Star) I was not surprised that Ron the Greek didn't kick it into gear and close like a freight train (on race day). I felt Amoss likely sent the colt into the Risen Star after squeezing too much out of him ('don't squeeze the lemon dry' was a comment [and a warning of sorts ] credited many years ago to Hall of Fame trainer Horatrio Luro)...and RTG's dull performance was (the way I see it) more (maybe MUCH more) about that than luke warm fractions or the ride and the timing of a move.

Oh well...I just can't lay it all on Ron the Greek.

My belief in Ron the Greek's potential is intact, but (all things considered) my doubts are growing (by leaps and bounds) that he's currently in the hands of a trainer who may best enhance his chances for big-time success.

Best to ya.

Respectfully

[Shergar]

FOS:

A very good analysis on RTG. Some things to ponder that I didn't think about.

Also hard for a stone cold closer to run into such slow fractions.

Shergar

[da hossman]

C'mon FOS, don't throw Amoss under the bus just because the horse you pitch runs a "so so" race. Amoss has trained some good horses (Heritage of Gold, Hot Wells, Lone Star Sky, etc) and many more workmanlike horses. Anyone familiar with his stable will tell you it is a quality operation and that he is a quality guy.

And although you try to hide it, Amoss's move of RTG to Remington ("not very Lucien-like") was for a stakes race (a logical progression following his prior performances), a stakes with a big purse and suspect competition. If you ask me it was damn good placement for the horse to earn the most possible prestige & purse against the least possible competition. Oh and remember RTG probably wins that race rather than running 4th if he is not stopped hard by another horse on the turn. Don't think for a minute or try to insinuate that RTG was ever intended to be in Remington any longer than it took to run the race.

Any analogy or comparison of RTG/Amoss with Secretariat/Laurin is laughable, ridiculous and invalid from the very inception as the only commonalities may be that each is a registered thoroughbred and each is a licensed trainer. The circumstances are completely different.

So your horse did not run the race you would have liked - sometimes they have an "off" day, sometimes you just can't explain it. Sometimes a problem becomes apparent a few days later that was brewing at the time of the race. Sometimes the race just does not set up well for your horse. Accept it. Trying to blame it all on Amoss and then trying to make a ridiculous comparison between RTG/Amoss and Secretariat/Laurin does help your case FOS.

[bdw0617]

amoss has taken a legit blue collar claimer (cool bullett) and already won the sugar bowl stakes with him and is somewhat on the derby trail.

amoss can train. you dont' claim off amoss.

[Fireslam]

FWIW, he was only beaten 4 lengths, in spite of the pace being very slow. Im not saying he wins the Derby, but he'll win again. He's a very very nice horse, and by far the best horse by his failure sire.

[da hossman]

I need to learn how to edit my posts...

In my previous post I inadvertently omitted a word that is a significant -

"Does NOT help your case FOS."

My apologies for any confusion this may have caused.

[FOS]

hi da hossman

C'mon FOS, don't throw Amoss under the bus just because the horse you pitch runs a "so so" race.

Not lookin' to throw trainer Amoss under the bus. Clearly though, he made a MAJOR change in Ron the Greek's work schedule going into the Risen Star, and I sense that may have been key to the colt's lackluster performance in the race.

If you compare RTG's pre-Risen Star works and schedule to what he did (and when he did it) going into the LeComte (a race that RTG won impressively by a length and a half, closing with a powerful move down the lane)...and the work schedule he followed going into the $200k Springboard Stakes (where RTG rallied to finish a very strong fourth; just two and a half lengths behind the winner)...you may better understand my perspective.

Consider the following...

Feb 20, 2010 - Risen Star Stakes (Fairgrounds); RTG finishes sixth off a rather dull/lacking rally, after being 11th (of 12) by 13 lengths (at the half). Fractions were relatively slow (which did not benefit a closer), regardless (the fractions) RTG appeared to be somewhat empty when asked at both the head stretch and down the lane, and he did not finish strong.

Feb 16, 2010 - 4 days prior to the Risen Star - RTG's final work (pre-Risen Star) - 4 furlongs in 49 3/5 (6th fastest work of 40).

Feb 10, 2010 - 10 days prior to the Risen Star - RTG's next to final work (pre-Risen Star) - 6 furlongs in 1:13 3/5(co-bullet work) .

---------

Jan 23, 2010 - LeComte Stakes (Fairgrounds); RTG wins impressively, after being last (of 10) by 16 lengths (at the half) and closing like a colt on a mission; finishing (and galloping out) extremely strong.

Jan 15, 2010 - 8 days prior to the LeComte - RTG's final work (pre-LeComte) - 5 furlongs in 1:02 4/5.

Jan 7, 2010 - 16 days prior to the LeComte - RTG next to final work (pre-LeComte) - 6 furlongs in 1:13 3/5.

---------

Dec 14, 2009 - Springboard Stakes (Remington Park, Oklahoma); RTG rallies impressively from dead last at the half (approx 19 lengths out of it) to finish 4th (just 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner) after rallying like a runaway freight train and galloping out extremely strong.

Dec 6, 2009 - 8 days prior to the Springboard Stakes - RTG's final work (pre Springboard) - 4 furlongs in 49 2/5.

Nov 28 - 16 days prior to the Springboard - RTG next to final work (pre-Springboard) - 5 furlongs in 1:02.

---------

Considering all of the above, I get a strong sense that going into the Risen Star, trainer Amoss may have mistimed/mischeduled/miscalculated RTG's works and what (and when) was asked of of the colt. Ten days out a co-bullet 1:13 35...then four days out a 6/40 4-furlong work in 49 3/5 .

Ten days out, then four days out, raised serious questions as far as I was concerned. If that wasn't enough...compounding my concerns was the FACT that RonTG was to carry 120 pounds (highweight)...and give weight to every other starter in the Risen Star. 4 lbs to eight of twelve in the race, 3 lbs to one other, and 2 lbs to two others.

A look back at RTG's published works indicate that his next to last work prior to the LeComte-G3 and his next to last work prior to the $200k Springboard Stakes were each 16 days prior to raceday (not 10 days out as was the case re the Risen Star), and his final work going into the LeComte was 8 days prior to the race, and his final work going into the Springboard was 8 days prior to the race...not 4 days out as was the case going into the Risen Star.

It'll be interesting to see how Amoss schedules RTG's final two works going into the $750k LaDerby. I believe that'll be key. The colt's two most recent works are as follows.

Today-Sunday 3/7/2010 - 5 furlongs in 1:03 2/5

3/1/2010 - 4 furlongs in 50 3/5

The Louisiana Derby will run on March 27th...20 days from today. I expect trainer Amoss will NOT work Ron the Greek 10 days out, then again 4 days out from raceday (as he did going into the Risen Star), but will return to a less aggressive/more conservative (if you will) work schedule (something more in line with what RTG has responded quite well to).

I'll be surprised (if not perplexed, maybe even shocked ) if Amoss doesn't adjust RTG's final works schedule (as I strongly believe it should be) going into the LaDerby. That said...if RonTG is healthy and sound, and prepared and managed properly going into the mile and an eighth LaDerby, it won't surprise me if the colt will have it in him to deliver a big (maybe huge) performance. If going into the race though, Amoss again squeezes the lemon dry...all bets are off.

Bottom line...I still believe that RTG has potential extraodinaire; as for trainer Amoss...hopefully he's up to the task.

For what it's worth...I'll go ALL IN with the chips that Amoss will NOT bring RTG into the LaDerby with a work (much less a bullet work) 10 days prior to the race, followed by a work 4 days prior to the race. If he does, that'll likely result in a squeezed the lemon dry performance...again.

I'm optimistic though...and hope that Team RTG connects the dots, and the best is yet to come.

Respectfully

[Georgerz]

After the sixth place in the Luisiana Derby, I don't think there is potential extraordinaire at all. Time to eat your crow.

[bdw0617]

they should ungrade the louisiana derby

mission impazable can't even win an allowence race at gulfstream and gets trounced at oaklawn and wins this crap race.