So is I'll have Another a triple crown horse? Looked like he wanted more ground.
That would be a story : no 3 crown horse since 1978, then a 15-1 shot does it?
Your thoughts?
Triple Crown Horse?
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
- bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
i do not think it will happen becuase I believe the TC always goes to the best horse and I think BM is overall a better race horse than IHA. i don't think he will lose all three legs of the triple crown if he is in all 3 races.
]
with that said, i will say this... Doug O'Neil, though not my fav trainer in the world to say the least, made a brilliant strategic decision to skip the middle prep back in April. when everyone else was running in the FOY and the rebel and the Tampa bay derby he sat his horse out. what that means is that unlike the other horses, IHA has only raced 2 times in the last 2 months and not 3 or even 4, i.e he's a fresh horse.
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.
]
with that said, i will say this... Doug O'Neil, though not my fav trainer in the world to say the least, made a brilliant strategic decision to skip the middle prep back in April. when everyone else was running in the FOY and the rebel and the Tampa bay derby he sat his horse out. what that means is that unlike the other horses, IHA has only raced 2 times in the last 2 months and not 3 or even 4, i.e he's a fresh horse.
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
- pfrsue
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1079
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:42 pm
- Location: You can't get there from here.
bdw0617 wrote:
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.
Granted, Bodemeister ran insane splits in the Derby, but no matter the reason, he did visibly start to run out of gas before the finish and got caught. Why are you so sure that he'll win at a mile and a half?
-
- Chef de Race: Classic
- Posts: 4451
- Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Certainly not an expert in this arena but why would a horse need more than 2 weeks to recover from an 8 1/2 when his next race is a 9 1/2?
When I was a kid we ran our ponies and pony/horses at least every weekend. Granted not for 8 1/2 but we did do multiple races with the same horses the same day and, while this was problem not very smart, I never had a problem and neither did any of my friends.
Also, when I played football we were back on the field early Sunday morning running wind sprints if we had lost the day before.. I should probably add that I now have two metal knees.
I ran a gelding in a 5 1/2 last night and am thinking about considering that as a good hard work for a miles race in 9 days.. However, only if his trainer and Vet says he is up to it.
griff
When I was a kid we ran our ponies and pony/horses at least every weekend. Granted not for 8 1/2 but we did do multiple races with the same horses the same day and, while this was problem not very smart, I never had a problem and neither did any of my friends.
Also, when I played football we were back on the field early Sunday morning running wind sprints if we had lost the day before.. I should probably add that I now have two metal knees.
I ran a gelding in a 5 1/2 last night and am thinking about considering that as a good hard work for a miles race in 9 days.. However, only if his trainer and Vet says he is up to it.
griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]
Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.
I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this year.
I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this year.
Last edited by casallc on Thu May 10, 2012 8:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle.
- Alexis de Tocqueville
- Alexis de Tocqueville
- bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
pedigree and the fact that most people do not understand that in 12F races, front runners have an advantage, not closers.pfrsue wrote:bdw0617 wrote:
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.
Granted, Bodemeister ran insane splits in the Derby, but no matter the reason, he did visibly start to run out of gas before the finish and got caught. Why are you so sure that he'll win at a mile and a half?
everyone will be so concerned about trying to get the trip they will hold back, plus he won't have to run anywhere near as wicked fractions in a 12F race.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
casallc wrote:
I think the Preakness comment is an excellent assessment but believe if Bob skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont he will win by many. The horse can probably canter the first three quarters in 13 and change and run the last three quarters in 1:14. I don't think any of the rest can run faster than 2:29 for the mile and a half..
Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.
I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this yea
I think the Preakness comment is an excellent assessment but believe if Bob skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont he will win by many. The horse can probably canter the first three quarters in 13 and change and run the last three quarters in 1:14. I don't think any of the rest can run faster than 2:29 for the mile and a half..
- bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
pretty much this. he literally gallops faster than they run. the only way they beat him in the Belmont is if they go the Eddington route and just burn one of their own horses into the ground to get to him. you let this horse gallop 24 -48 -1:13 and you can forget it i don't care if they were running 2 miles they wouldn't catch him. like i said it's funny cide all over again. FC won the Derby and preakness but there was really little question that year as to who was the best 3YO, and he finally got his trip in the belmont.zinn21 wrote:casallc wrote:Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.
I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this yea
I think the Preakness comment is an excellent assessment but believe if Bob skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont he will win by many. The horse can probably canter the first three quarters in 13 and change and run the last three quarters in 1:14. I don't think any of the rest can run faster than 2:29 for the mile and a half..
i just realized BM's dad won the belmont.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
griff wrote:Right, my bad!
So why would a horse need more than two weeks to recover from a 10 furlong race when his next race is 9 1/2 ?
Some one must have once thought it was a good idea.
see original post for other stuff?
griff
It worked prior to race day medication. It still works in Australia.
There were even a few years in the 1960s when the Belmont was run only 2 weeks after the Preakness.
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!
*****************************
A horse gallops with his lungs
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio
*****************************
A horse gallops with his lungs
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio