Triple Crown Horse?

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tbrace
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Triple Crown Horse?

Postby tbrace » Wed May 09, 2012 9:59 pm

So is I'll have Another a triple crown horse? Looked like he wanted more ground.

That would be a story : no 3 crown horse since 1978, then a 15-1 shot does it?

Your thoughts?

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Postby bdw0617 » Wed May 09, 2012 10:04 pm

i do not think it will happen becuase I believe the TC always goes to the best horse and I think BM is overall a better race horse than IHA. i don't think he will lose all three legs of the triple crown if he is in all 3 races.
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with that said, i will say this... Doug O'Neil, though not my fav trainer in the world to say the least, made a brilliant strategic decision to skip the middle prep back in April. when everyone else was running in the FOY and the rebel and the Tampa bay derby he sat his horse out. what that means is that unlike the other horses, IHA has only raced 2 times in the last 2 months and not 3 or even 4, i.e he's a fresh horse.

if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.
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Postby pfrsue » Thu May 10, 2012 6:15 am

bdw0617 wrote:
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.


Granted, Bodemeister ran insane splits in the Derby, but no matter the reason, he did visibly start to run out of gas before the finish and got caught. Why are you so sure that he'll win at a mile and a half?

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Postby Shammy Davis » Thu May 10, 2012 7:14 am

I think BODEMEISTER will regress. The KD has to have taken something out of him. Two weeks is a very short time to recover from that kind of a race.

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Postby griff » Thu May 10, 2012 7:57 am

Certainly not an expert in this arena but why would a horse need more than 2 weeks to recover from an 8 1/2 when his next race is a 9 1/2?

When I was a kid we ran our ponies and pony/horses at least every weekend. Granted not for 8 1/2 but we did do multiple races with the same horses the same day and, while this was problem not very smart, I never had a problem and neither did any of my friends.

Also, when I played football we were back on the field early Sunday morning running wind sprints if we had lost the day before.. I should probably add that I now have two metal knees.

I ran a gelding in a 5 1/2 last night and am thinking about considering that as a good hard work for a miles race in 9 days.. However, only if his trainer and Vet says he is up to it.

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Postby casallc » Thu May 10, 2012 8:44 am

Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.

I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this year.
Last edited by casallc on Thu May 10, 2012 8:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Crystal » Thu May 10, 2012 8:45 am

griff, please post photos of your pony-jockey days. I have seen a mini pony racing photo pic floating around facebook and its adorable.. I want to know someone who actually did it!

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Postby bdw0617 » Thu May 10, 2012 9:45 am

pfrsue wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
if BM is not in the Preakness i can see IHA winning that race. I don't think anyone will catch BM in the Belmont though. i see this shaping up a lot like funny cide's TC chase.


Granted, Bodemeister ran insane splits in the Derby, but no matter the reason, he did visibly start to run out of gas before the finish and got caught. Why are you so sure that he'll win at a mile and a half?
pedigree and the fact that most people do not understand that in 12F races, front runners have an advantage, not closers.

everyone will be so concerned about trying to get the trip they will hold back, plus he won't have to run anywhere near as wicked fractions in a 12F race.
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Postby griff » Thu May 10, 2012 10:06 am

did not race mini ponies just large ponies and small horses.. Besides any pictures from back would have turned yellow by not..

I did see some ponies race with chickens as jockey's. Chickens did a pretty good job.

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Postby zinn21 » Thu May 10, 2012 12:10 pm

casallc wrote:

Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.

I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this yea


I think the Preakness comment is an excellent assessment but believe if Bob skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont he will win by many. The horse can probably canter the first three quarters in 13 and change and run the last three quarters in 1:14. I don't think any of the rest can run faster than 2:29 for the mile and a half..

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Postby bdw0617 » Thu May 10, 2012 1:15 pm

zinn21 wrote:casallc wrote:

Bodemeister will not win another Triple Crown race if he runs in one, I don't think he will run though. I think he is too good of a horse to go to the Preakness so quick with nothing to win when there is no TC win at stake. He is not ready for a mile and a half and it would be dumb to train for that distance when there aren't enough races after the Belmont at that distance. I think Baffert is at least as smart as I am and will see that BM can be HOY picking his races and winning the Breeders Cup.

I doubt IHA will win another race in the TC series. I could be wrong but I don't think so. I'd bet there are three winners of the TC series this yea


I think the Preakness comment is an excellent assessment but believe if Bob skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont he will win by many. The horse can probably canter the first three quarters in 13 and change and run the last three quarters in 1:14. I don't think any of the rest can run faster than 2:29 for the mile and a half..
pretty much this. he literally gallops faster than they run. the only way they beat him in the Belmont is if they go the Eddington route and just burn one of their own horses into the ground to get to him. you let this horse gallop 24 -48 -1:13 and you can forget it i don't care if they were running 2 miles they wouldn't catch him. like i said it's funny cide all over again. FC won the Derby and preakness but there was really little question that year as to who was the best 3YO, and he finally got his trip in the belmont.

i just realized BM's dad won the belmont.
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Postby madelyn » Thu May 10, 2012 1:36 pm

griff wrote:Certainly not an expert in this arena but why would a horse need more than 2 weeks to recover from an 8 1/2 when his next race is a 9 1/2?


The Derby is 10f, the Preakness is 9.5f and the Belmont is 12f.
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Postby griff » Thu May 10, 2012 4:42 pm

Right, my bad!

So why would a horse need more than two weeks to recover from a 10 furlong race when his next race is 9 1/2 ?

Some one must have once thought it was a good idea.

see original post for other stuff?

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Postby Bast » Thu May 10, 2012 5:09 pm

griff wrote:Right, my bad!

So why would a horse need more than two weeks to recover from a 10 furlong race when his next race is 9 1/2 ?

Some one must have once thought it was a good idea.

see original post for other stuff?

griff


It worked prior to race day medication. It still works in Australia.

There were even a few years in the 1960s when the Belmont was run only 2 weeks after the Preakness.
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Postby griff » Fri May 11, 2012 7:02 am

Rapid WON 20 races in 51 weeks.

That's a race AND A WIN, every 2.55 weeks.

Certainly not a Derby horse but was probably running full out in all 20 races

And, I suspect he was on race medication in every race, also I believe he retired sound.

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