Derby Contenders - Locked?

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Shammy Davis
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Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby Shammy Davis » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:31 am

I was listening to TVG this morning. Both commentators seem to think that with the graded earnings standing as they are without any significant derby preps completed, horses in the top echelon would seem to be a "lock" for the race. I don't ever recall being this many months out and have this many contenders locked into the race.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-d ... s-earnings

I guess CD is also going to have an also eligible list, which I think is great.

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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby Bast » Sun Feb 12, 2012 2:30 pm

Shammy Davis wrote:I was listening to TVG this morning. Both commentators seem to think that with the graded earnings standing as they are without any significant derby preps completed, horses in the top echelon would seem to be a "lock" for the race. I don't ever recall being this many months out and have this many contenders locked into the race.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-d ... s-earnings

I guess CD is also going to have an also eligible list, which I think is great.


I think the Derby would be a lot more interesting if earnings were limited to races of 1 1/8 and beyond...
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!
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Postby griff » Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:46 pm

I find it interesting as is

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Postby Bast » Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:50 pm

griff wrote:I find it interesting as is

griff


It's a mile and a quarter race.

If you put 20 Quarter Horses in the starting gate, there would be a winner, but would that winner represent a top mile and a quarter horse? Unlikely.

Just so filling the gate with last season's precocious sprinters does not yield the best field.

Remember when these horses ran several 1 1/8 mile preps?
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!

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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby Linda_d » Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:35 am

Bast wrote:I think the Derby would be a lot more interesting if earnings were limited to races of 1 1/8 and beyond...


I think "1 1/8 and beyond" for the first Saturday in May of their 3 yr old is probably too limiting. I'd only count 2 yr old earnings at a mile or longer and 3 yr old earnings at 1 1/16 and longer.
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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby bdw0617 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:11 am

bast is correct IMHO. just like some races, just beucase a horse wins at that distance, doesn't mean he actually wants to run that far, just means he wants to run that far better than the horses that were behind him. you get alot of that when it comes to 3YO's these days. I don't tihnk shackleford for instance really wants anypart of a race over a mile, and his preakness win kept them going back to the welol.e he face real 3YO 2 turn horses he was beaten repeatedly.

I have actually put some thought into this before. If i were the commissioner I would elimate the earnings all together and impliment a system where the following horses got in

1. top 2 finishers in the santa anita derby
2. top 2 finishersr in the arkansas derb yy
3. top 2 finishers in the florida derby
4. top 2 finishers in the wood memorial
5. top 2 finishers in the bluegrss
6. winner of the coolmore lexington
7. winner of the louisiana derby
8. winner of the sunland park derby
9. winner of the spiral stakes
10. one wildcard horse that a selected committe could chose of any horse not already included
11. winner of the UAE derby


that would accomplish a few things


1. it would make euros who seriously want to be play in thte derby have to come and compete in our preps as well which makes for better preps
2. it wil make connections take preps more seriously. also you will have horses enter more of them. instead of the really good horses all avoiding each other you will have horses competing as early as the louisiana derby or hte spiral stakes to ensure as many shots as the derby as possible. this will also put more of a foundtation in the horses thus making for better racing
3. only horses a that somewhat want 10F will be running. no sprinters
4. it will create more drama and more reasons to put prep races on national TV
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Postby Bast » Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:25 am

A few decades ago, horses competed several times in their 3 y o year prior to a Kentucky Derby start. The entries were far more known quantities, and they weren't there because they earned a pile of money sprinting at 2, and then made a single start at 3.

Kentucky Derby entries now largely consist of horses with bankrolls and not a lot of proven substance beyond sprint distances.

How many really good horses have won in the last 15 years, horses that went on to confirm their Derby performance?

How many horses have (unintentionally) used the Kentucky Derby as a prep race, finding out what works/does not work and winning other stakes afterward?
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!

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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby ct2346 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 5:08 pm

bdw0617 wrote:bast is correct IMHO. just like some races, just beucase a horse wins at that distance, doesn't mean he actually wants to run that far, just means he wants to run that far better than the horses that were behind him. you get alot of that when it comes to 3YO's these days. I don't tihnk shackleford for instance really wants anypart of a race over a mile, and his preakness win kept them going back to the welol.e he face real 3YO 2 turn horses he was beaten repeatedly.

I have actually put some thought into this before. If i were the commissioner I would elimate the earnings all together and impliment a system where the following horses got in

1. top 2 finishers in the santa anita derby
2. top 2 finishersr in the arkansas derb yy
3. top 2 finishers in the florida derby
4. top 2 finishers in the wood memorial
5. top 2 finishers in the bluegrss
6. winner of the coolmore lexington
7. winner of the louisiana derby
8. winner of the sunland park derby
9. winner of the spiral stakes
10. one wildcard horse that a selected committe could chose of any horse not already included
11. winner of the UAE derby


that would accomplish a few things


1. it would make euros who seriously want to be play in thte derby have to come and compete in our preps as well which makes for better preps
2. it wil make connections take preps more seriously. also you will have horses enter more of them. instead of the really good horses all avoiding each other you will have horses competing as early as the louisiana derby or hte spiral stakes to ensure as many shots as the derby as possible. this will also put more of a foundtation in the horses thus making for better racing
3. only horses a that somewhat want 10F will be running. no sprinters
4. it will create more drama and more reasons to put prep races on national TV


It would also accomplish the elimination of three actual Derby winners in the last 10 years.

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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby Bast » Tue Feb 14, 2012 8:11 pm

ct2346 wrote:It would also accomplish the elimination of three actual Derby winners in the last 10 years.


The present rules have reduced the race to a mob stampede of relatively green horses, with the outcome not having much to do with sorting out the best 3 y os. Almost every horse with sufficient earnings goes into the gate, whether they are suited for the distance or not.

The Kentucky Derby is becoming less of a race than a spectacle.
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!

*****************************

A horse gallops with his lungs

Perseveres with his heart

And wins with his character. --Tesio

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Postby Shammy Davis » Wed Feb 15, 2012 7:37 am

The problem is that many horses don't complete the derby trail to race day. A great many juveniles, who look to have a great potential, can't be physically sustained to derby day. With some of the limiting requirements as mentioned above, the selection system will continually have to make exceptions when horses drop out. I personally think the graded stakes earnings system is the only one that works. I just don't recall this many young horses having a accumulated enough earnings to be eligible this early in the year.

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Postby da hossman » Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:05 pm

hey guys if we eliminate the obvious sprinters/non-2turners from the Derby the odds on the horses we like will certainly decrease and our selection process will be much more difficult - don't ruin a good betting thing!!! :lol:
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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby bdw0617 » Wed Feb 15, 2012 6:07 pm

ct2346 wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:bast is correct IMHO. just like some races, just beucase a horse wins at that distance, doesn't mean he actually wants to run that far, just means he wants to run that far better than the horses that were behind him. you get alot of that when it comes to 3YO's these days. I don't tihnk shackleford for instance really wants anypart of a race over a mile, and his preakness win kept them going back to the welol.e he face real 3YO 2 turn horses he was beaten repeatedly.

I have actually put some thought into this before. If i were the commissioner I would elimate the earnings all together and impliment a system where the following horses got in

1. top 2 finishers in the santa anita derby
2. top 2 finishersr in the arkansas derb yy
3. top 2 finishers in the florida derby
4. top 2 finishers in the wood memorial
5. top 2 finishers in the bluegrss
6. winner of the coolmore lexington
7. winner of the louisiana derby
8. winner of the sunland park derby
9. winner of the spiral stakes
10. one wildcard horse that a selected committe could chose of any horse not already included
11. winner of the UAE derby


that would accomplish a few things


1. it would make euros who seriously want to be play in thte derby have to come and compete in our preps as well which makes for better preps
2. it wil make connections take preps more seriously. also you will have horses enter more of them. instead of the really good horses all avoiding each other you will have horses competing as early as the louisiana derby or hte spiral stakes to ensure as many shots as the derby as possible. this will also put more of a foundtation in the horses thus making for better racing
3. only horses a that somewhat want 10F will be running. no sprinters
4. it will create more drama and more reasons to put prep races on national TV


It would also accomplish the elimination of three actual Derby winners in the last 10 years.
this is a logical fallacy


you are assuming if the rules were in place, that the horses would have ran the exact campaigns that they ran which is not necessarily the case. plus, you are making the assumption thqat beucase a horsea won the race that he was a justified winner hwich is not necessarily the case.

super saver would not have not split the field in the 2007 derby
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”

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Postby Bast » Wed Feb 15, 2012 8:30 pm

I still think that offering a 1 1/16 Derby Alternative on Derby Day, complete with a decent purse, might serve to draw off some of the horses who are just not suited for 1 1/4 miles, especially if one could leave the Derby and opt for the Alternative as late as Friday.

A full field is exciting to watch, but a full field of mediocrities is less than scintillating.
May 2013: Plan ahead now for the Phalaris/Teddy Centennial!

*****************************

A horse gallops with his lungs

Perseveres with his heart

And wins with his character. --Tesio

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Postby Shammy Davis » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:46 pm


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Re: Derby Contenders - Locked?

Postby reenci » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:43 pm

Bast wrote:
Shammy Davis wrote:I was listening to TVG this morning. Both commentators seem to think that with the graded earnings standing as they are without any significant derby preps completed, horses in the top echelon would seem to be a "lock" for the race. I don't ever recall being this many months out and have this many contenders locked into the race.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-d ... s-earnings

I guess CD is also going to have an also eligible list, which I think is great.


I think the Derby would be a lot more interesting if earnings were limited to races of 1 1/8 and beyond...
... :idea: :!:
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