very good and informative postkimberley mine wrote:bdw0617 wrote:I
the people, at the first book for the most part,are not necessarily there to.. they aren't there necessarily on the quest for the best bang for their buck. they are there to be seen, they want to be associated with the best just as much as they want to win. they don't want to just win they want to win big races. they not only want to win big races, they want to do it with the best / most established bloodlines they can. Because there is a small handful of horses that makes all this possible, you get fireworks. fireworks drive up price.
Look at it this way: the people who are fishing in the Book 1 pool are not there to buy racehorses. They're speculating on the value of future breeding stock.
Look at Fusaichi Pegasus. He was by Mr Prospector out of a Danzig mare from a high class family--breeding was perfect, if he would run. And run he did. That $4 million that was paid out for him as a yearling suddenly seemed like a bargain compared to the $60 million Coolmore paid for him in syndication--15 times his purchase price PLUS his substantial winnings on the track. At stud, Coolmore priced him in such a way that he would pay off that $60 million in his first 3 years. Everything else has been pure profit for the shareholders. Even if he stands at 15,000 a year for the rest of his career, and only covers 90 mares in a year in both hemispheres (probably on the low end), 20 shareholders would make a minimum of $60,000 each accounting for the expenses related to his care.
The same can be said for buying Mariah's Storm and putting her in foal to Storm Cat. Coolmore won BIG on that gamble, even bigger than Fusaichi Pegasus.
The reason those buyers are focusing on those bloodlines is that those bloodlines are the ones where speculation has a snowball's chance of paying off. Nobody is going to pay top dollar for a son of Pleasant Tap, even if he were a full to David Junior, either at the yearling sales or in syndication. Nobody is going to pay high 6 to 7 figures for a daughter of Include, even if she is a Gr-1 winner (Panty Raid, Cash Included). They would for a daughter of Hasili, even if her sire had been a dachshund, because Hasili has shown such an amazing ability to breed the high-dollar, high-stud fee colts.
It's gambling, off the track.
so let's look at what you just stated. with that said, the question you have to ask yourself or i have to ask is, just who interests are being served, or in other words, who is trying to hit the home run?
what i mean is, alot of those horses are bought by old money in the game. like you said who are gambling off the track.
but alot of people, who are buying the horses, could care less what the horses stud value is, or what his prospects of winning off the track are. alot of these people buying horses are people who made some money in other ventures and want to do something exciting and have a decent race horse.
do you think that it's accurate to say that agents look at a person's finances toa cess where they shoudl be playing and not their actual interest. in other words, if a client goes toan agent and says he wants a stable of 4-5 horses that could be really good race horses that can stay sound for a while and he can see them run, that no matter what his goals are, if hes playing with say, 5 million dollars, the agent is going to advise him that he needs to be on some of the horses in the first book even if that's not what's in the owners best interest?
an example I look at Frank Fletcher, guy who owns a bunch of car lots in Arkansas. he runs a very very local circuit, runs a few at Louisiana downs and oaklawn every year. he likes 2YO's. he owned officer rocket a few years ago.
so when i see he goes out and buys the most expensive 2YO in training last year, i have to think someone has gotten into his ear and told him that this is the type of horse he needs to buy if he wants to "compete". for what he does, FF has had a successful operation. high claimers, allowance horses ,without breaking the bank to get them. now he's spending a million dollars on horses.. he has a lot of money but he's not coolmore and there are only so many trips to the bank before a man like that can take before he does t just go back to being a regional guy but before he just "quits" all together.