Let the Games Begin!

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DDT
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Postby DDT » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:36 pm

Whirlaway

Twilight Meteor, one of Marty Wolfson's horses went wire to wire, set pretty nice pace. This horse had some back class and looked good to me but you cannot play them all. Next week will get here soon enough.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:49 pm

Looking forward to next week!



LET THE GAMES CONTINUE!
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~
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DDT
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Postby DDT » Fri Dec 10, 2010 4:12 pm

Whirlaway

This Saturday we have the Hollywood Starlet from Hollywood Park 300K, G1 at one mile and a sixteenth.

Turbulent Descent is almost a double Beyer qualifier but she is changing distance from 7 furlongs to this 1 1/16th so although she comes in with a speed advantage the new distance eliminates her from the play. I like her and think she can win this race but I am going with #8 Tell a Kelly. I think she did not like Churchill and may not have been giving it her all. She can handle the distance and I think she is the class of this bunch. $2.00 across the board on Tell a Kelly.

Good luck.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Fri Dec 10, 2010 5:09 pm

DDT,

This Saturday we have the Hollywood Starlet from Hollywood Park 300K, G1 at one mile and a sixteenth on the synthetic surface.

Nice group of fillies here - this should be a good one.

Nina Fever shows blistering 22 second fractions, gets a positive jock switch, just missed in her last and she should be able to extend her speed - can she do so on this surface and can she get the distance? She'll have to contend w/Baffert trainee May Day Rose showing four nice bullet works, two at racing speed - she is happy and likely to improve. I agree w/your assessment that Tell a Kelly is the class of the field, didn't like the CD surface in her last and if there is a speed duel, Tell A Kelly is the one to beat.

No pick at this time.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Dec 11, 2010 7:18 am

Class and condition, pace makes the race . . . I'd like to see Nina Fire wire this one but its tough to bet against Tell a Kelly in this race. $ 2 across the board on the eight horse, Tell a Kelly.
~
How about a new revision to the games - our first choice and a long shot? We could do a $2 win bet only on the long shot making a total investment of $ 8.00 for each race - point system can remain the same. Tell me what you think.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

~

It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

DDT
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Postby DDT » Sat Dec 11, 2010 7:28 am

Whirlaway

Well, basically we would be getting two shots, the regular pick and then a long shot pick. Points and money would be the same, of course what you want is a dead heat, then you would get the money and points for both. I don't mind tossing in a long shot, the problem will be when it is a short field and there are no real long shots.

I have changed my mind for today, the more I look at this race the more I like Turbulent Descent, so I am changing my bet to $2.00 across the board on Turbulent Descent. As a long shot I like the Florida invader #4 Luna Grande.

Baffert's horse might wire this bunch, she has been working very well.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:12 am

DDT,

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner.

The first pick is good for the $ 2.00 Win, Place and Show. The long shot pick is only good for the $2.00 Win - if the long shot does not win, no points. "The problem will be when it is a short field and there are no real long shots." We can define a long shot as closing odds of 5-1 or better.

For today's race as an example, my first pick is $ 2.00 across the board on Tell a Kelly, my long shot pick is $ 2 W on Nina Fever. The closing odds on Nina Fever must be 5-1 or better to qualify as a long shot - if not, she is disqualified as a pick and therefore no points should she win. Indeed the best scenario is a dead heat where one could score ten points and get the money! The best and most likely scoring would be to have the long shot come in first and the first pick get the place where one could score eight points. Let me know what you think. If you wish and agree, we can extend the closing time today to 3:00pm EST to sort out and agree to these changes.



Best of racing luck



LET THE GAMES CONTINUE!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

~

It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

DDT
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Postby DDT » Sat Dec 11, 2010 12:54 pm

Whirlaway

Fine, I have $2.00 across the board on Turbulent Descent and $2.00 to win on my long shot #4 Luna Grande.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Dec 11, 2010 1:16 pm

Good enough, they are all in the gate!

I'll stay with my previous picks: $ 2.00 across the board on the Tell a Kelly and $ 2.00 to win on my long shot Nina Fever.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

Shergar
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Postby Shergar » Sat Dec 11, 2010 5:27 pm

xx
Last edited by Shergar on Sat May 12, 2012 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DDT
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Postby DDT » Sat Dec 11, 2010 6:16 pm

Whirlaway

Well she did not pay a lot of money but a win is a win. Too bad both long shots are still running, but it does spice up the play. She paid $4.20, $3.20 and $2.20 for a total of $9.60 - $6.00 wager = ROI +$3.60. Totals to date, 2 winners =10 points and an ROI of +$5.40.

Good luck next week.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Dec 11, 2010 9:10 pm

DDT,

I just watched the replay and congratulations on another fine pick - she was much the best and won going away and no doubt a win is a win. There they go now, those long shots just crossed the finish line . . . I agree, having a long shot pick spices things up.

Let it show for the record that Turbulent Descent was the even money favorite and she paid $4.20, $3.20 and $2.20 for a total of $9.60 - $6.00 wager = ROI +$3.60. DDT totals to date, 2 winners =10 points and an ROI of +$5.40. Total bet in three races = $ 20.00 total ROI = $ 5.40. Let is also be shown for the record that Tell a Kelly did show and she paid $0.60. Whirlaway totals to date, 1 show = 1 point and an ROI of +0.60. Total bet in three races = $ 20.00 Total ROI = $ 0.60. Please review these numbers for accuracy. These running totals will suffice for now. On the first Sunday in May, after I pick the Derby winner, we can get the final percentages.

~

I believe a lot can be said about playing the favorites at the right time. In the Remsen and in the Starlet both winners showed prior wins described as "handily" - neither one of them having seen the whip. Do these late maturing horses have an advantage going into next years Classics? Going into the fourth week I will be behind 9 points and behind $ 4.80. I'm behind early, I've got some work to do and fortunately I've got some time to do it. Once again, congrats.

Looking forward to next week!

LET THE GAMES CONTINUE!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

~

It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

DDT
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Postby DDT » Sun Dec 12, 2010 4:05 am

Whirlaway

The ROI figure is off, I forgot the $6.00 2nd week wager and the new $2.00 long shot win wager for a total wagered thus far of $20.00, I have collected $7.80 from week 1 and $9.60 from week 3 for a total of $17.40. I have a negative ROI of -$2.60. You have wagered $20.00 and collected $.60 which gives you a negative ROI in the amount of -$19.40.

As it turns out all three of my wagers have ended up going off as the favorite, but as I said before, handicapping stakes races is not a good measure of handicapping skill because they tend to run more true to form which makes them easier to handicap. May be I'll catch a good one soon and get the ROI on the positive side.

DDT

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Sun Dec 12, 2010 2:30 pm

DDT,

Please see PM.
~
" . . . but as I said before, handicapping stakes races is not a good measure of handicapping skill because they tend to run more true to form which makes them easier to handicap."

I agree they tend to run more true to form but I don't know if that makes it any easier (especially for me). Take a look at the race last week, the Tropical Turf where Twilight Meteor won at 15-1.

My initial idea was to alternate which race to choose by using the free trainer past performances. We could incorporate this idea into the Games every other week; this week the DRF race, next week one of us could choose a race from the free trainer past performances, then the next week the DRF race . . . that might spice things up a bit. I'd like to keep it simple but I am open to any ideas that make it more interesting.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

~

It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Thu Dec 16, 2010 5:09 pm

DDT,

I have reviewed this race.

The race for this week: 1 Mile. (Inner Dirt). Mdn 46k Purse $46,000 INNER DIRT (UP TO $8,740 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs .

Link: Go to: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm.
Click on Darley Stallions PPS> First race at the top of the page. Bernardini>Saturday December 18>Iscar>Aqueduct-Race 6>Ulitmate PPs (they don't allow a direct link).

First bet: $25.00 WP on # 5 Cross the Line Class fit; drop in distance; strong works; good trainer stats; weak competition; Looks set to run the best race of his young life; he lacks early foot. I'll take him at 5/1.

Long shot: $5.00 W on # 9 Distorted Appeal Looks like the class but hasn't raced in some time; strong works - could surprise at 6/1.

Best of racing luck

THE GAMES CONTINUE!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas

~

It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire