Cree wrote:TJ
I very much like this crop. I am having a hard time with deciding who I can see winning (there are too many). The Arkansas Derby will most likely add to my indecision.
I didn't think you were comparing One Lucky Dane to the "big 2", just thinking out loud that I don't think he's on the same wavelength of them (yet?). He is definitely a nice colt, but I feel (like Materiality) he is making big jumps this spring, and sometimes that gets to these young horses.
Baffert looks to have his gun fully loaded this year.
The favourites have been quite form-ful this spring. I cannot wait for the Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and so on.
Hi Cree,
I agree, great crop! That's what makes handicapping this season's Derby so interesting. The pace and the post positions will play a big role. The bloodlines will also come into play when there are so many decent horses with good form going into the Derby gate. Then all important, is how they are doing training up to the Derby. I'm very interested in seeing Mubtaahij train when he ships in to CD in mid April. How he reacts to his new surroundings and CD's dirt track which looks quite different from Dubai's. I'm hoping CD will accommodate De Kock's style of training. He does much of his training on turf and usually gallops without shoes. Mubtaahij ran a race as good as any horse here in the States...his strong cruising speed, ability to rate and rapid acceleration bodes well for a Derby run. I think if he handles the CD racing surface, he could very well be a serious Derby threat. Key will be his transition....if he stays calm, cool and collected and doesn't leave his race on the race track leading up to the Derby....he could add a new dimension to the Derby. TJ