Friends:
Mare is Never Out 1999, by Take Me Out . 16.2 hands. She was very fast out of the gate...G II placed....bad osselets cut her career short. This years short list:
1.Forestry(nice linebreeding to Dr. Fager)...thought about him when his fee was alot more
2. Artie Schiler (not thrilled about turf sire angle but everything else lines up beutifully)
3.Pure Prize (he's very underrated,I think)
4. Include: (this mating would take courage but might be worth it)
Thanks for your opinions! They are valued!
Comments on my stallion short list?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn, Diane
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1811
- Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Include: 74% runners, 58% winners from foals of racing age. Avg $58,717; median $29,813. AEI 1.51/CI 1.35.
Forestry: 64% runners, 45% winners from foals of racing age. Avg $63,692; median $26,633. AEI 1.53/CI 2.46.
Pure Prize (NH only): 59% runners, 44% winners from foals of racing age. Avg $61,882; median $25,858. AEI 1.64, CI 1.32.
Artie Schiller is a new sire so take his numbers with a serious grain of salt. 47% runners, 25% winners. (Actually that's not bad for a horse whose first crop is only 4.) AEI 1.37, CI 1.56.
So with Include, the average earnings are lower than the other two proven horses, but you have the greatest chance of getting a runner, greatest chance of getting a winner, and the highest median earnings (50% of his foals will earn that much or more).
My sense with the Includes is that they're also very, very sound--your mare's half sister Differentiate has run out 44 starts for about $220k with her most recent win being last week. His first winner, A Slick Chic, has run out 92 starts and is still trucking.
My sense with Forestry is that he needs a good physical match, and that he's feast or famine. When they're good, they're very, very, very good, but it's a steep dropoff from there. His crops running right now were bred at $75-$125k, so we're seeing the offspring of mares who SHOULD have good foals. It might be a worthwhile exercise to look at the dams of his current very good runners, and see how the Forestry foals compare to their other progeny. If the Forestrys are nice but not the best, that tells you something different than if the Forestrys are the best produce of those dams.
Pure Prize is a nice meat and potatoes horse but I confess to being surprised at his low starters/runners to foals ratios. Don't know what's up with that. That might be why his fee is half of Include and Forestry's, despite having comparable average/median earnings and improving his mares.
Forestry: 64% runners, 45% winners from foals of racing age. Avg $63,692; median $26,633. AEI 1.53/CI 2.46.
Pure Prize (NH only): 59% runners, 44% winners from foals of racing age. Avg $61,882; median $25,858. AEI 1.64, CI 1.32.
Artie Schiller is a new sire so take his numbers with a serious grain of salt. 47% runners, 25% winners. (Actually that's not bad for a horse whose first crop is only 4.) AEI 1.37, CI 1.56.
So with Include, the average earnings are lower than the other two proven horses, but you have the greatest chance of getting a runner, greatest chance of getting a winner, and the highest median earnings (50% of his foals will earn that much or more).
My sense with the Includes is that they're also very, very sound--your mare's half sister Differentiate has run out 44 starts for about $220k with her most recent win being last week. His first winner, A Slick Chic, has run out 92 starts and is still trucking.
My sense with Forestry is that he needs a good physical match, and that he's feast or famine. When they're good, they're very, very, very good, but it's a steep dropoff from there. His crops running right now were bred at $75-$125k, so we're seeing the offspring of mares who SHOULD have good foals. It might be a worthwhile exercise to look at the dams of his current very good runners, and see how the Forestry foals compare to their other progeny. If the Forestrys are nice but not the best, that tells you something different than if the Forestrys are the best produce of those dams.
Pure Prize is a nice meat and potatoes horse but I confess to being surprised at his low starters/runners to foals ratios. Don't know what's up with that. That might be why his fee is half of Include and Forestry's, despite having comparable average/median earnings and improving his mares.
Thanks to all who responded. My hesitation with Include was less the 3x4 inbreeding, and more in giving the foal so many strains of Turn-To, who can pass on a weak foot.......but Include's influence on soundness cannot be denied. If I breed to him I would probably do it twice. I bred her twice to Victory Gallop . We got one colt that looked like he should be pulling a donkey cart and then a full brother who reeled off 3 straight before hurting himself (suspensory) in a workout before the Pa. Derby.
Forestry, in my mind is the big ??? but he may be worth a shot here too.
Forestry, in my mind is the big ??? but he may be worth a shot here too.
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1811
- Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Some more stats on Forestry:
From the information in the DB--so again grain of salt--his average earnings per runner for his crops in 2001-2007 (e.g. not his crops bred at $125k) is $67,400. Throw out the highest and lowest earner--Discreet Cat and Magic Forest--and his average earnings are $63,381. That's good, it means his numbers aren't being skewed by one good horse.
Edit for clarity: the following stats are ONLY for his 2001-2007 crops.
Winners of one race averaged $27,500. Winners of 2-4 races (allowance conditions) averaged $86,738. He had 305 winners, of which 126 were winners of only one race (43%). I'm not segregating by black-type here, nor am I segregating by quality of race, just by wins. By statistics you can bank on 1 out of 6 of his foals winning one race and between $15000-$30000.
On the other end, he has 7 foals who have won 10 or more times, with average earnings $341,070. All but one of those are high-running geldings, the lone exception being the very good filly Smokey Glacken.
He has 29 horses who earned $200k or more. Their broodmare sirelines are Mr Prospector (9), Alydar (4), Nearctic including Northern Dancer (7), Damascus (3), Le Fabuleux (2), Ribot (2) and Meadowlake, Riverman, and Cox's Ridge with 1 each.
He has two foals out of Cure the Blues mares, one of whom won 1 race for about $16k and the other is unraced.
On to the fuzzier side--
Two foals out of Charm a Gendarme, one Gr-3 winner of $281k. Their half-sister Tout Charmant is a Gr-1 winner.
One foal out of Christmas in Aiken--allowance winner of $113k. Half to Gr-1 Harlan's Holiday.
One out of Clever Bertie--unraced, half to winner of $980k and winner of $250k
One out of Copelan's Bid Girl--won one race and $35k, half to Purge and Namaste's Wish (graded)
One out of Deputy Jane West--won 2 listed stakes, half to another listed winner who won about $50k more
One out of Dream of Summer--filly won one race for $34k, half to Gr-1 Creative Cause
Two out of Extend (by UBS)--both winners in the ballpark of $48k, half to a Ghostzapper colt who won $83k
One out of Frio Town--won one race for $31k, half to Beau's Town ($697k) and Frio Flag ($125k)
One out of Golden Petal--Golden Glen, one of Forestry's top 20 at 71 starts and $456k. Half to multiple Gr-3 winner Lotus Pool ($694k) and Golden Larch (Gr-1 placed, $604k).
One out of Halo River--the Forestry foal won $462k and is a listed stakes winner, and is the best foal out of his dam.
One out of Goulash--unraced.
One out of Olay Monique--won 8 races for $102k, half to Gr-2 Diane's Halo and Listed Pugnacious
One out of Oatsee--highest earner of his dam, half to Gr-1 and 4-time graded winner Lady Joanne and 3-time Gr-3 winner Baghdaria
Two out of Pretty Discreet--one a champion and best of his dam, the other unraced; brothers are half to multiple Gr-1 Discreetly Mine and listed Gr-1 placed Pretty Wild
One out of Unbridled Elaine--best of his dam by a long way.
So---he's getting good horses (winners and more) out of mares where he should be getting good horses. Out of that sample of 15 horses, the Forestrys were the best of their dams 25% of the time.
Oatsee and Etched are bred on the same cross--Unbridled/Unbridled's Song mare with an additional line to In Reality on the dam side.
I hope this is useful.
From the information in the DB--so again grain of salt--his average earnings per runner for his crops in 2001-2007 (e.g. not his crops bred at $125k) is $67,400. Throw out the highest and lowest earner--Discreet Cat and Magic Forest--and his average earnings are $63,381. That's good, it means his numbers aren't being skewed by one good horse.
Edit for clarity: the following stats are ONLY for his 2001-2007 crops.
Winners of one race averaged $27,500. Winners of 2-4 races (allowance conditions) averaged $86,738. He had 305 winners, of which 126 were winners of only one race (43%). I'm not segregating by black-type here, nor am I segregating by quality of race, just by wins. By statistics you can bank on 1 out of 6 of his foals winning one race and between $15000-$30000.
On the other end, he has 7 foals who have won 10 or more times, with average earnings $341,070. All but one of those are high-running geldings, the lone exception being the very good filly Smokey Glacken.
He has 29 horses who earned $200k or more. Their broodmare sirelines are Mr Prospector (9), Alydar (4), Nearctic including Northern Dancer (7), Damascus (3), Le Fabuleux (2), Ribot (2) and Meadowlake, Riverman, and Cox's Ridge with 1 each.
He has two foals out of Cure the Blues mares, one of whom won 1 race for about $16k and the other is unraced.
On to the fuzzier side--
Two foals out of Charm a Gendarme, one Gr-3 winner of $281k. Their half-sister Tout Charmant is a Gr-1 winner.
One foal out of Christmas in Aiken--allowance winner of $113k. Half to Gr-1 Harlan's Holiday.
One out of Clever Bertie--unraced, half to winner of $980k and winner of $250k
One out of Copelan's Bid Girl--won one race and $35k, half to Purge and Namaste's Wish (graded)
One out of Deputy Jane West--won 2 listed stakes, half to another listed winner who won about $50k more
One out of Dream of Summer--filly won one race for $34k, half to Gr-1 Creative Cause
Two out of Extend (by UBS)--both winners in the ballpark of $48k, half to a Ghostzapper colt who won $83k
One out of Frio Town--won one race for $31k, half to Beau's Town ($697k) and Frio Flag ($125k)
One out of Golden Petal--Golden Glen, one of Forestry's top 20 at 71 starts and $456k. Half to multiple Gr-3 winner Lotus Pool ($694k) and Golden Larch (Gr-1 placed, $604k).
One out of Halo River--the Forestry foal won $462k and is a listed stakes winner, and is the best foal out of his dam.
One out of Goulash--unraced.
One out of Olay Monique--won 8 races for $102k, half to Gr-2 Diane's Halo and Listed Pugnacious
One out of Oatsee--highest earner of his dam, half to Gr-1 and 4-time graded winner Lady Joanne and 3-time Gr-3 winner Baghdaria
Two out of Pretty Discreet--one a champion and best of his dam, the other unraced; brothers are half to multiple Gr-1 Discreetly Mine and listed Gr-1 placed Pretty Wild
One out of Unbridled Elaine--best of his dam by a long way.
So---he's getting good horses (winners and more) out of mares where he should be getting good horses. Out of that sample of 15 horses, the Forestrys were the best of their dams 25% of the time.
Oatsee and Etched are bred on the same cross--Unbridled/Unbridled's Song mare with an additional line to In Reality on the dam side.
I hope this is useful.
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stlouiskid
- Maiden Special Weight
- Posts: 101
- Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:39 pm
- Location: illinois
All 4 of your options are decent breed to race sires. If you are breeding to sell the yearling, to be honest I think you would have a hard time recouping your stud fee and expenses based on a potential sales price out of your dam at this point in her broodmare career.
But breeding to race you can get any kind of horse out of her, so go for it. She obviously could run.
I bred to Forestry last year and my mare is due to foal in April. Going to be Indiana bred.
Think if I were you, I would use Include. He is getting some real racehorses. Gov. Jones and his son have always been great to work with, and are often negotiable if the horse is not super hot. I bet you might get a discount for this mare with the G-2 black type.
But breeding to race you can get any kind of horse out of her, so go for it. She obviously could run.
I bred to Forestry last year and my mare is due to foal in April. Going to be Indiana bred.
Think if I were you, I would use Include. He is getting some real racehorses. Gov. Jones and his son have always been great to work with, and are often negotiable if the horse is not super hot. I bet you might get a discount for this mare with the G-2 black type.
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stlouiskid
- Maiden Special Weight
- Posts: 101
- Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:39 pm
- Location: illinois
Should add about Include, a negative is he only had 20 foals in 2011 and 31 foals in 2010, and was bred to 55 mares last year. So he is not going to have a lot of runners in the pipeline, so will probably hurt him sales wise the next few years. Breed to race it won't matter.
Forestry was 51 foals in 2011, 94 in 2010, and bred to 104 last year.
Artie was 82, 52 and 81 bred last year.
Forestry was 51 foals in 2011, 94 in 2010, and bred to 104 last year.
Artie was 82, 52 and 81 bred last year.
stlouiskid wrote:Should add about Include, a negative is he only had 20 foals in 2011 and 31 foals in 2010, and was bred to 55 mares last year. So he is not going to have a lot of runners in the pipeline, so will probably hurt him sales wise the next few years. Breed to race it won't matter.
Forestry was 51 foals in 2011, 94 in 2010, and bred to 104 last year.
Artie was 82, 52 and 81 bred last year.
Artie had 91 mares last year and 131 the year before so he's been getting good sized books. I don't know how many he's booked to this year but at 10K there is room to make money if you get a nice looking foal and put it through a sale. I think the world of him, obviously, since I had other choices at lower stud fees but he's well worth what it is going to cost me. Just wish they did not tax sperm....
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FiftyYearsPlus
- Weanling
- Posts: 49
- Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:39 am
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Another idea
It's late and I don't have time to go on at length now, but I would strongly suggest that you look at My Pal Charlie: Indian Charlie out of a strong producing Halo mare. He's close to you and in my experience, inbreeding Hail to Reason blood is dynamite. Your mare by Take Me Out-Cure the Blues should work well with this horse.
Against all "Kentucky" logic I bred my multiple allowance winning Pine Bluff mare to his brother, Bwana Charlie, and she just dropped a buster of a filly.
On a quick review of my Nicks, I don't see any evidence that Include will work with your mare. Oddly enough, I ran against his best, Panty Raid, in the 2007 Black Eyed Susan.
If you want to hear more, so post.
Good Luck
Against all "Kentucky" logic I bred my multiple allowance winning Pine Bluff mare to his brother, Bwana Charlie, and she just dropped a buster of a filly.
On a quick review of my Nicks, I don't see any evidence that Include will work with your mare. Oddly enough, I ran against his best, Panty Raid, in the 2007 Black Eyed Susan.
If you want to hear more, so post.
Good Luck