Thoughts on this breeding plan please.

[Worksoplad]

We'll so far so good! Queen of the Sand won an allowance race at Santa Anita yesterday.

Probably, her next race will be at Del Mar.

[ct2346]

Congratulations. Noticed the win via the writeup in TDN this morning.

[Jeff]

Congratulations!

[madelyn]

Great for you!!

[dublino]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... f-rides-on

[Worksoplad]

Thanks for the article Dublino. I was actually in England for 2 1/2 weeks until yesterday attending a relative's wedding in Derbyshire. I am leaning towards Candy Ride, but hope to have some racing fun with this filly first!

She won the last of her eligible conditions race on Thursday at Del Mar, a NW3. Now she has to move up to Stakes company. We were originally aiming for the Yellow Ribbon at the end of the meet, but have decided against it, because the race the other day was supposed to have been run a week earlier, but took a week to fill, so there is not enough time between races. I want to be patient with this filly. Problem is, the only available stakes race at the Santa Anita Autumn meet is at 1 1/4 miles, the Rodeo Drive Stakes on September 27th.

I also had another winner at Del Mar the day before, my 8 year old gelding, Hog's Hollow who I bred myself. He's still going strong and enjoying his training and racing, the old buggar!!

[kimberley mine]

I do find it very strange that the Truenicks nick with English Channel is B+, and yet the nick with English Channel's sire, Smart Strike is only a D, when Smart Strike has several grades SWs including My Miss Aurelia, when bred to Storm Cat line mares.

TrueNicks measures opportunity as well as success. Smart Strike will have seen many, many more Storm Cat line mares than English Channel (in part because Smart Strike has been at stud a lot longer), and compared to "background average," the Smart Strike over Storm Cat isn't outperforming the background average. English Channel is having more success relative to background with Storm Cat at this point in his career.

I quite like English Channel for this mare for breeding to race a homebred....not at $25,000 ($15,000 would be about right), but I like him. He's siring tough, sound, honest runners who in many cases are the best of their dams. You rarely see one in a bottom-level claimer, too. Even when they're not winning stakes, they're running through their conditions. Also, interestingly, there are several foals by English Channel who have 3/4 siblings by Smart Strike, and in many cases, the English Channel is the better foal of the two (including ones out of mares by the likes of AP Indy).

For a sales yearling, Candy Ride is a no-brainer. For breed to race, I'd choose English Channel, because as brilliant as some Candy Rides are, there are a lot who can be very fragile. The English Channels are more likely to start, half of his foals older than 2 are winners, and they have a higher average earnings per start than the Candy Rides.

For the "think outside the box" choice.....Denman.

Lady Juror, along with Star Kingdom, is one of the bloodlines that made the Australian thoroughbred, and even though she's really far back in pedigrees now, it's a bloodline that still likes to be crossed on itself. It's also not picky as to the source....Great Above and Mt Livermore are just as hot as Danzig and Vain. Denman has four crosses to Lady Juror, through Forli (Nureyev and First Consul) and Fair Trial (Vain and Major General). All of his black-type foals have at least four more crosses to Lady Juror, through diverse sources. Queen of the Sand has six crosses to Lady Juror via Blushing Groom, Forli, and Helen Nichols (the dam of Ahonoora).

[Worksoplad]

Thank you Kimberly Mine fr your very clearly expressed thoughts. I find both suggestions very interesting. I know that QOTS is primarily a turf runner but what are the chances of getting a dirt runner with English Channel?

[kimberley mine]

To be honest, I don't think English Channel will get a dirt runner out of a turf-bred, turf-performing mare. If he does, probably it will be that the foal is of such good racing class that it will perform well on any surface it runs on.

I would look for a horse who was well-performed on dirt, and whose breeding will be similar to other successful dirt runners.

In the $15k range, Lookin at Lucky won Gr-1 races on both dirt and synth, and he has serious turf talent in the family (closely related to champion Wait a While).

In the $20k-$30k range, Blame stands out on pedigree (I really like the Arch with her line to Woodman). So does City Zip, who ran hard and fast on dirt and sires good runners on both surfaces. City Zip is a good, good, good sire of good, good, good horses. Really like him.

On pedigree, Candy Ride and Arch both stand out in the $40-50k range. Candy Ride is more likely to get a high-class dirt runner, but like I said they're not always the soundest horses. Arch looks really, really good on paper, and has better racing stats (more SW, more SP, higher average and median earnings) than Candy Ride, but he also has a longer average win distance, they don't sell as well, and they don't usually have the brilliance that Candy Ride passes on. If she needs more speed, Candy Ride. Sales, Candy Ride. Breed to race, Arch. Kind of funky front end, Arch.

One more thing about Arch: if you look at how Blame is bred (broodmare sire is a son of Mr P over a Buckpasser mare, and further on the damline is Special), and how ArchArchArch is bred (broodmare sire is a son of Mr P over a Buckpasser mare, and one generation back is Nureyev).....that combination is very, very similar to QOTS' dam.

[Worksoplad]

Again, thank you for your input. I like both Arch and Candy Ride equally. I also like Lemon Drop Kid and will probably choose one of those three, with the outside possibility of going to Arch's son Blame also.

QOTS has shown that she has a good deal of tactical speed.

[Worksoplad]

Queen of the Sand ran in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (G-1) today at Santa Anita. She was drawn 14 of 14 runners and ended up having an impossibly wide trip. It wasn't the jockey's fault. Alex Solis did everything to try to drop her in but there was no opening anywhere and she had to check at least once. The DRF chart says: "five wide
on the hill, angled in and chased three or four wide, continued four wide on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally." Alex said the others ran a mile and a quarter and she ran a mile and three eighths!! She ended up 7th beaten 4 lengths.

I was not at all disappointed with that considering the post position and the fact that it was her first attempt beyond 1 1/8 and first attempt at any kind of a stakes race. Where better to start than a grade one!!

[jellac]

I was looking over the SA program for today, late last night, and saw Queen of the Sand in the post position outside of Serendipity so made sure to watch her race today. She was very fast out of the gate but you are exactly right - there was so much speed in that race there was no way for her to move over and drop in on the rail. For a while I thought she was going to run the race 5 paths + wide the entire way, then Alex got her tucked in a bit and I thought if she had any energy left (having run a greater distance than most at that point) she might have some late turn of foot to make a run at Emollient, who was clearly loaded. At the top of the final turn, the horse Mike Smith was on lost her footing on the grass while making a strong move, sliding down and literally spinning around on her haunch, just to the outside of where I thought your horse was positioned and beginning to move up. It almost seemed that it may have caused Queen of the Sand to change stride or jump inwards towards the rail a bit to avoid interference but perhaps that was only my imagination. It all happened very fast. I heard that the fallen mare did get up and walked away, as did Mike Smith. Hoping that both are Ok. Your mare was really stepping up in the distance being tested and in the company she drew in against - she got no help at all with that outside post position. She did quite well I thought - disappointing thought it may have been - simply by showing she's ore a stayer than you might have thought. She lacked late kick today, but wasn't staggering/fading either - and Emollient and the others who still had some gas at the end were moving. So she hung tough when the going got tough. A better post/trip and I think she might have had a better day/result.

[dublino]

Well done Del Boy, lovely jubbly.

Thats a chart to print out and hang on the wall.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA7.pdf

Some fine company your filly is keeping there a long way from a cold evening at Dundalk.

You keeping her in training next year?

[madelyn]

I think you can't really "pick" a stallion until the season arrives when she will be bred because the selection is always changing.. however her pedigree seems to say to me "something AP Indy" and there is a lot to choose from there. If you want the connection to Thong, in the tried and true category there is Stormy Atlantic and lately inbreeding to Storm Cat is not so verboten as it once was.

On the really cheap side (probably much too cheap for this mare) I like the pedigree cross with Stephen Got Even.

I don't think English Channel would throw a dirt horse with this mare given that he was a Turf Eclipse winner.. also he is maybe 15.1 hands and extremely narrow. Fortunately for the owners of all of the mares whose English Channel foals I have seen, he throws to the mare and only the mare.

Should she really step it up and bank up well by winning in a graded stakes or two, I love her with Bernardini...

[Worksoplad]

Yes Dublino. Definitely keeping her in training next year.

Jellac: I watched the race again and QOTS went 7 or 8 Wide on that final turn just as Moulin de Mougin was slipping and unseating Mike Smith (thankfully Mike was OK after that; he rode QOTS in her last two races). QOTS then set about trying to get into the race and made up ground until the extra distance she had traveled took its toll. There is a listed race for her at Del Mar at a mile on the turf on November 7th and then the Matriarch States on November 29th also at a mile. She scoped well after the race so its onwards and upwards!

Madelyn: I like A P Indy too. I have looked at the Bernardini cross and obviously like it a lot. I like the cross with Malibu Moon along those lines as well because it brings in another cross of Green Dancer, as well as the similar Mr. Prospector and Buckpasser crosses with Bernardini.