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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:04 pm 
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I would not send this mare to a distance stallion like Drosselmeyer is likely to be. There is a lot of grass and a lot of distance in Golden Encore's breeding. If the goal is to keep this mare for a sales-yearling broodmare, she needs to have foals who will RUN, and with grass + distance either you get cheap claiming races not suited to the foals (like their dam), or you get a bad page.

I would have a good, hard look at Power Broker. Gr-1 winner at 2 on dirt, talented on turf, came back to run well as a 3yo after an injury, fairly priced. El Prado and Pulpit have had some success: G1W Laragh, G1W Real Solution, GSW O'Prado Again, SW Hop the Six (by Artie Schiller), Bluegrass Summer. He comes from a solid Phipps family, and Pulpit is a useful sire of sires.

He may be able to ride on his close relative Trappe Shot's coattails.....he's got a hot sire in Tapit and good support with Claiborne, BUT it took him until late in his 3yo year to put things together, never could hold it together, and Private Account has about a 5% approval rating as a broodmare sire of sires. Trappe Shot's first foals are going to start running next year. If they run well, it will add to Power Broker's lustre. If not, it shouldn't hurt Power Broker too much. Trappe Shot might be a brave bubble play but I like Power Broker better as a sales horse because of the juvenile Gr-1 win.

For the Roberto line, I like the fact that for the same price, Temple City has already sired a juvenile Gr-2 winner, whereas Brilliant Speed is unproven. Temple City also has a female family with better success with stallion sons, and he is standing at a farm with much better success at starting stallions than Three Chimneys. That said I think Brilliant Speed is more commercially viable right now.....

.....but because Dynaformer is kind of big and slower to mature, another option is the early-maturing, fast, cleverly-bred ArchArchArch. He's on the bubble next year but I like him.

If you would rather not breed an unproven filly to an unproven stallion, few things have been as ridiculously successful with the El Prado line as Fortunate Prospect, and the best source of Fortunate Prospect at stud happens to be a stalwart upgrader who averages 8% SW from foals: Successful Appeal. He's not as sturdy commercially as he once was, but if the plan is to keep this mare and upgrade her page, he's likely to do exactly that. Still a really good stallion, and the right one will sell. Having a PA-bred Successful Appeal might be a good thing!


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:34 am 
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springboro wrote:
Hi Dublino.... I am so delighted you have a sense of humor with the shriveled comment! I may be developing a crush on you myself . ;)


Take a ticket get in line! :lol:
springboro wrote:
and, if you think my mare in foal to Frost Giant would bring $50K plus, let's just see how serious you are. Care to pay the stud fee and split the boarding, vet bills, farrier stuff, and of course, profits? I have the mare and she travels well. You could save me all kinds of sale prep and blanketing. I'm gonna stick her under lights in November anyhow. We might be the first pedigreequery partnership formed right here! With witnesses and everything! Let's just see how Sheldon does this weekend in the Hill Prince at Belmont and then let's talk.


Springie I take it your a woman, I have to pay the stud fee and yet everything else is split?
Just like lets go on a date this is 2014 we are equals but the man still picks up the check... :roll:

Why about $50k.
Frost Giants average is $33k multiply this by 4 = $132,000 (four foals sired before one hit the racetrack to recoup what the mare is worth)
Minus stud fee 4 x $10k
Minus 4 x (mare and foal care per year, sales entry fees etc) $10k
that leaves $52,000 profit and you still have the mare if the foals run and win you have something if not mare is next to worthless.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:55 am 
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Toccet02 wrote:
Dublino...do you see anything particularly interesting as far as a good pedigree with the Frost Giant suggestion, or is it mainly due to his good numbers and probable commercial value?


Frost Giants are winning over 6f so did the mare.
Its the same cross as 3 G1 winniners in America (Lea) Europe and Japan.
Horses can run on any surface.

Breeders awards for a NY bred, NY bred purses would make this mare more desirable compared to breeding her in KY.

The idea was to get in foal and dump for profit (excuse my simplistic vocabulary) if doing so you must make the mare desirable to "investors" being in a regional market with regional high purses and high breeders awards does this.

Frost Giant has a huge AEI 1.96 and CI of 1.12 and 5 SW he has 10 horses with over $100,000 in winnings.

Frost Giant has a winner already from female family 4-r
http://www.pedigreequery.com/go+giant+bry+go

(also a B Nick)

Both 4-r mares trace back to
http://www.pedigreequery.com/maiden2

His full sister sold for $25,000
http://www.pedigreequery.com/little+juliann

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:18 am 
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dublino wrote:
Toccet02 wrote:
Dublino...do you see anything particularly interesting as far as a good pedigree with the Frost Giant suggestion, or is it mainly due to his good numbers and probable commercial value?



Both 4-r mares trace back to
http://www.pedigreequery.com/maiden2

Interesting....so you believe in the influence of a 19th century female ancestor? I look at female families too...and would note that as well. Many here seem to think looking that far back is useless. I guess whoever has success is correct. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:53 am 
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Some people think that inbreeding to Phalaris is bad, some people think that a speed gene linked to shetland ponies is the holy grail others think that Buckpasser in the X is the way to go others think that a sire who is in the dam line of the sire in the 4th generation of a pedigree when crossed with a mare who has the same sire in the dam line of mare being bred in the same generation somehow balances things out is good.

My point with the mare above was that the female family had success with the stallion both on the racetrack and in the sales ring.

When people talk about sirelines there are only 3 and only 49 female families.
Families are important and so is racing ability results at the track makes pedigrees, sometimes people forget this - racing is what makes pedigress and racing success is commercial.

Take the unraced mare Tizamazing dam of Oxbow and the $1.6m waste of money Mrs Pope just spent of Daddys money.

$250k for Oxbow and because what he won this horse is now worth $1.6m.
Oxbow bred on a successful cross A++ Nick this horse not bred similarly.

She is chasing shadows and will end up the same way as Satish Sanan did -$100m and no-one to blame only herself.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:06 am 
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Quite possibly she will...but I thought her money was spent because of how Tizamazing is shaping up in general. That mare is really producing. And I know certain folks think this virtual stable hobby of mine is ridiculous, but for what it's worth--I "bought" Awesome Patriot a few years back, also out of Tizamazing...for much less $$, and while he only made a third of it back at the track (he was Baffertized), he will stand at stud....I went for him as I believed the family would amount to something...and there you go. As you say, on the track, and at the sales.

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:58 pm 
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Temple City's fee just went up to $12,500 based on recent success.


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:53 pm 
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So, I see that BOTH Toccet and Springboro are now enamored of Dublino.
I thought I was his only true love. Clearly, he is a faithless ratfink. Well,
you ladies are welcome to him! He has betrayed me for the last time!
Just see if I continue to cyber-stalk him! May the junk in his trunk stay
in his trunk!!!!!!
Sign me (a dissatisfied),
Affirmed1 :twisted:
P.S. Dubs, just keep the child support money coming my way. Maybe we
can still have a snog now and then. I know the others mean nothing to
you. :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:51 am 
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oh dear... I'm a dude. What have I done to give the impression of being female. The man-crush on Dublino? What can I say?


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:12 am 
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Had you given more thought to whether to put her in a sale or hold on and breed her? Rather than the body parts of board members?

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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:16 pm 
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Hill'n'Dale has a big big big deal going on with Power Broker. Hill'n'Dale really supports their young stallions, he's well-priced, he's well-bred, and he was fast.

If the goal is to breed and then sell in-foal, Trappe Shot was firing on all cylinders at the sales this year. He'd be on the bubble, too, but whoever gets the first Really Good Son of Tapit gets the prize. Lot of risk, lot of potential reward, and the foal would be on the same cross as G1 winner Laragh (Tapit - El Prado).

Another son of Tapit is Flashback...again with Hill'n'Dale behind him, and the same very favourable terms set out for Power Broker. On pedigree I like Power Broker a lot more. A first-year Tapit son might hold more appeal at the sales.

Temple City is probably priced out for Golden Encore, and it's really, really hard to warm up to Brilliant Speed because of the farm he stands at. I just can't get past their record in starting young stallions. Even if 90% of new stallions flop, there should be that 1 in 10, right? Gainesway got Tapit, Hill'n'Dale has Midnight Lute and developed both Candy Ride and Medaglia D'oro, Claiborne has War Front, Winstar has Tiznow, Speightstown, and Distorted Humor, Darley had Street Cry, Adena has Awesome Again and Ghostzapper. Three Chimneys has....Sky Mesa? The best stallions TC has had recently all started out somewhere else: Wild Again, Dynaformer, Rahy, Seattle Slew, even their current leading horse, Exchange Rate, started elsewhere, as did their best-value breed-to-race horse, Yes It's True. They are under new management, so things might change, but between that and being on the bubble, Brilliant Speed is really risky.


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 Post subject: Re: new mare... ideas?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:16 am 
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I'm seriously leaning at putting her under lights and popping her in the January sale. I think that's probably the best idea for me at this point.


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