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PostPosted: Wed Aug 12, 2015 3:27 pm 
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Suckling

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Hi Everyone - Please bare with me as this is a little long, however, once you read it I think you will understand why.

I am new to this forum (actually didn't know it existed until recently). I am also fairly new to the Thoroughbred Industry, but not the world of horses (Quarter Horses and Egyptian Arabs). Following Thoroughbred racing has always been a passion and I said - some day I'm going to get involved even if it costs me (and it is costing me lol). I picked up two mares. One I will post on seeking advice later, but my focus is on my mare I reference in my Subject line. My mare's name is Majestic Chick. She is by Majestic Warrior by Express Chick out of Hennessy and her grand dam sire is Kingmambo. Having studied and watched every race, Majestic was a late maturing three year old who was beginning to hit the board (a 1st and 3rd in 8 tries), but on the night she won, she was claimed by a woman who thought she could afford to keep her training and racing, only to turn her out to pasture as she went broke in the first two months. Sadly, this mare sat for a year and a half until I happened across her on craigslist. She had a clean bill of health, so I bought her as my first starter mare for $4k. On the dam side, in the first four generations there have been two black-type winners. Her grand-dam is the dam of Gozzip Girl and the fourth generation dam produced Brocco (who is still standing at stud in Australia and has had some black-type and graded/stakes placed offspring). In addition, the third generation female was herself stakes placed. In total - within just the first 5 female generations (excluding my mare) there are 11 graded stakes winners/graded stakes placed/stakes placed offspring, in addition to the two black-type winners. Furthermore, a number of the offspring within these 5 female generations are producers of black-type and graded and stakes winners or placers. So the female family is fairly strong overall. However, my mare's dam has been bred on a more commercial scale, rather than a racing scale, in my opinion, and to date - Majestic is her only known winner (One of her offspring is racing in Mexico and his race history is unknown at this time). Majestic's dam has only produced three offspring thus far and is in foal again for this year so the family is fairly young.

For my mare's first mating, I bred her to Revolutionary.

So here is where I come to the challenge. Commercially, my mare matches up well with a lot of sires with multiple A+++ nicks on the Werk Rating scale and numerous A++ nicks through the Truenicks rating system. But as I have studied and researched this entire winter, I came upon a very interesting discovery: The two Black-type winners were both sired by sons of Roberto - Kris S and Dynaformer, with only Gozzip Girl sired by Dynaformer, all the rest of the graded/stakes winners/placed resulted from a mating with Kris S. Obviously these two son's of Roberto are a strong nick with the female family of my mare. But sadly, from Roberto directly - there are no direct male descendants of Roberto left alive and the only direct influence from him has been passed on to stallions currently standing by either Kris S. or Dynaformer. There are a few of their sons that remain (though some are out of my price range). However, when I test the werk nick rating and the Truenicks rating with these offspring none of them Nick out better than a B as Roberto and his sons haven't historically nicked well with the Seattle Slew offspring. Additionally, many of the Kris. S and Dynaformer sons standing in the US were mated with lines of Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat and my mare already has enough Mr. P on her dam side and her dam sire is by Storm Cat - so I'm not interested in duplicating either of them any further. This narrows my focus tremendously leaving the majority of options limited. Here is who I have narrowed it down to:

Dynaformer
Rocket Legs in MA is one possibility, but his fee is private.
Dynamometer in SC at a fee of $1,000 (but he is listed on one site for a fee of $1000 for 2015 and on Thoroughbred Pedigree Query as having died in 2013)
Dynameaux in TX - but this gives my mare another copy of Raise the Native which I would like to avoid

Kris S.
Blowing Rock in Florida for $5,000


Kris S as the Dam Sire
Awesome Bet in LA
Corollary in SC
Senor Swinger in PA
Talbot in NE listed as private

Dynaformer as the Dam Sire
Stately Victor in OH
Strong Contender in IN
Glasnost in IN
Monterey Jazz in NM
Senor Enrico - for sale for $145k - out of my league

Roberto as the dam sire
Solid Hunch - Canada
Polish - LA

Sunshine Forever (Roberto son) as Dam Sire
G. W.'s d'Oro in LA


These are my options - save for ArchArchArch - who is sired by Arch who is by Kris S.

Any thoughts, ideas or input is welcomed.

Majority of these are not very commercial and right now I can't afford to race, but I also want to be smart in my breeding decisions. I want her offspring to standout and be something, not just be another fancy name in the ring.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:57 am 
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Maiden Special Weight

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Medal Count is entering stud in 2016. $5000

http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-regi ... edal-count


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:01 am 
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Quote:
Majority of these are not very commercial and right now I can't afford to race, but I also want to be smart in my breeding decisions. I want her offspring to standout and be something, not just be another fancy name in the ring.


Okay....honest opinion here.

1. This mare has black-type far back, but I would not call this branch of the family black-type. The closest black-type for foal out of this mare would be under the 3rd dam.

2. If you do not have the money to race now, you will be better off either saving up to buy a weanling from a proven racing dam or buying into a racing partnership. It would save you buckets of money in the longer-term than trying to breed winning foals from this mare.

3. Unless one of your mare's immediate siblings wins big in graded stakes, there is no point in trying to breed this mare for the commercial market. She does not have the race record and she does not have the female family to be worth the money and effort. And if one of her siblings does win big in a graded stake, you would be better off selling her, taking the money, and buying a mare with a better race record.

The reasons why:

Majestic Chick's lone win was a low-level claiming race at a second-tier track. She started in maiden special company and then dropped down the claiming ranks to a $20k tag, then to a $12500 tag, and finally to a $6250 tag where she won. (Incidentally, the equibase chart does NOT show her being claimed after her last race. I'm not sure what to make of that.)

The dam Express Chick was a Lukas trainee who started in maiden specials at Churchill. Her best performance was a 3rd place in a juvenile MSW behind a nice horse in Minewander, but never got close to the frame again. She raced 4 times as a 3yo, again at the MSW level and never finishing better than 7th, before having a long layoff. As a 4yo she made 1 start in a maiden claimer, finished dead last, and retired. She has two other foals of racing age, neither of whom have started according to this recent pedigree page: http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2015/0709/308.pdf That foal by Tapizar (stud fee $10k) did not make his $18,000 reserve: if it costs $35k to get a foal from breeding to the sales, then the breeder didn't even try to break even and is looking at a big loss.

Moving back to unraced Temperence Gift, she had a great filly in Gozzip Girl, and....very little from her other foals. Her Galileo daughter Gallileo Figaro won 6 races for GBP 26,000, which is the equivalent of about a $15,000 claimer in the US, and Galileo is one of the best stallions in the world. None of her other foals earned more than $30,000 on the track, including some by big-time stallions like Medaglia D'oro, Tapit, and More Than Ready.

Given that this female family has been bred to some GOOD stallions and had poor results, it's unlikely that you would get a good result even with a great stallion. The Roberto line might be a saviour....but it might not. The best production from a Roberto-line stallion was 3 generations back now.

If you do choose to breed this mare, the way to go is to breed her in a mid-level regional program like Indiana, Illinois, or Iowa (NY and PA at this point are too much for this mare). Breed her to a well-proven stallion who improves on his mares AND who has foals that you know have long running careers and are sought after for careers after racing (barrels, hunter/jumper, polo). Keep your stud fee to $3000 or less, and focus on physical type and proven performance over pedigree match. You can still look at pedigree, but here it's not as important as breeding your mare to a horse whose foals can run.

I'm sorry to be such a Debbie Downer, but if you really do want to get into the racing game and have a prayer of not winding up as broke as this mare's previous owner, your best bet is to pass on this one as a broodmare. Sell her for QH breeding (her dam did flash speed out of the gate), maybe, or get her started under saddle and sell her.

Either way, good luck.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:48 am 
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Very good advice in kimberley mine's post and saved me the time of drafting a similar answer.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:58 am 
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Here is a mare you could have bought for $5000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Winter Mixed in February of this year:

http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2015/0208/145.pdf

Holiday N Newport, by Harlan's Holiday out of Star of Glory, by Unbridled, 3 wins/2 places/6 shows for $56k earnings. Most of her runs and two of her wins were in the tough California circuit, including a win

She is a half-sister to a stakes-placed runner, and her dam has 4 winners out of six foals of racing age. Her second dam is a stakes winner who produced a champion, one of her daughters has produced a champion who is still racing and winning stakes, and there are black-type horses under EVERY SINGLE MARE the 2nd dam produced. In terms of being commercial, this mare's half-brother is the stakes horse in Louisiana, so a Louisiana-bred foal would appeal to that market. This family is also incredibly active in Woodbine, so a foal bred in New York or Ontario would have a ready market of Canadian and upstate New York buyers who are familiar with the family and what they do.

Aside from the sales price, the reason I picked this mare is that she won her last race in a claimer, running for a $6250 tag....the same as Majestic Chick.

---

Another mare who you could buy for less than $5000: http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2015/0208/435.pdf

By a champion sire, out of a stakes-placed mare, ran out over $100,000 on the track in the Mid-Atlantic circuit. Her wins were all in claiming and starter allowance company, but she ran competitively in open allowances and maiden specials. This mare with this family will appeal to the mid-Atlantic racing market. Speightstown seems to throw a lot of nice fillies like this out of good-but-not-great mares (look up Katie It's Fine for another example), he improved on the dam big-time and he's likely to turn into a really nice broodmare sire. She is eight years old, which limits her producing years and thus her sales price and commercial appeal, but unless her legs look like corkscrews put on backwards, somebody got a potentially nice producer at a VERY competitive price.

---

Finally, one more that you could have bought for $3000: http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2015/0208/31.pdf

Half to a stakes-placed winner, half to a stakes producer, ran out 10 wins for $107,000. The first dam's foals have a combined earnings of more than $435,000, with 5 winners out of 7 foals. Second dam produced two graded winners, a graded-placed listed winner, a stakes-placed winner, and 8 other winners out of 12 foals. The third dam was a solid producer and most of her daughters were solid producers. This mare was running for a $5000 tag for much of her running career, and her last win was in a race where she ran for a $4000 tag. Racing-class wise, she's a big drop below most of her family, and not as good as the Speightstown mare above, BUT she was sound, she was competitive, and she earned her keep. This mare would be breed-to-race only, but for a regional program like WV or the midwest, she'd be fine.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:33 pm 
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Listen to Kimberly Mine. Her advice is spot on.

Another rule of thumb when shopping for a brood mare is to pay attention to earnings per start. The closer to $10,000 the better. Sometimes they sneak through.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:08 pm 
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Suckling

Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:09 am
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Thank you all for your great advice. As fairly new to the thoroughbred industry, I'd been given similar advice after I started immersing myself more into learning about the female pedigree and potential mating's/nicks. But by then, I'd made the full commitment and after talking with some breeders/owners in Kentucky, they had recommended that I "breed-up" and sell in the Minnesota or Iowa sales for Cantebury or Prairie Meadow folks as they would be interested in sound, correct and decent bred offspring. Where I was struggling was how to make the most of what her pedigree offered and the Roberto Nick seemed to be something that had stood out when I dug into it. What black-type or stakes placed had come was from a cross in the female family with the Roberto sons, so I thought that maybe I could give her a fighting chance in heading that direction. I was at the Minnesota Breeder's sale yesterday and saw a number of offspring by mares bred to regional and Kentucky stallions with lesser pedigrees than this mare (even unraced with no graded stakes in any of the first 4 generations) sell for $20,000 and up - so perhaps this will at least be an entry point for me with her, just want to breed to grab attention so that I can set her up for any success she might have as a broodmare. I know that circumstances like Love the Chase and California Chrome are rare exceptions, but given for me that this is a smaller time hobby and not how I make my living, I am willing to be a little creative and see if I can take an underdog and make magic. Odd's are rare and Kimberly mine - you identified some awesome mares that you are correct - would have probably have been better investments, but for now, I'm working within the potential of what I have before me.

I consider her and my other mare my jumping off points. Given the percentages of horses that ever make it to graded stakes level racing - be them claimers or elites, one just never knows I guess. But you are 100% right, if I intend to get full on in the business - moving this mare along, and my other one would be wise and investing in broodmare's that bring a foundation that is worthy of attention in the sale ring.

Thank you again everyone - I prefer honest opinions than all the fluff and stuff you get sometimes.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:43 am 
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You can always keep the mares until after they foal, keep the foals, and sell the mares. Right there that will cut your expenses in half. If you want to stay in the breeding game, you can save the money you'd take on re-breeding two mares (stud fees, mare care) and take it to the winter mixed sales to get a better-performed mare already in foal or to keep and race the foals you already have.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:33 pm 
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Ditto to KM's comments. In trying to find a proper mare, then a proper stallion there are SO many factors. That's what makes for a marketplace. The Nicks guys are popular but not on the knife edge. There are reliable Pedigree consultants (some on this board) and investing in their opinion would be a good move. I would look for a proven stallion heading toward sunset, who throws sound, attractive mares. Get a decent runner and maybe she'll be worth upgrading to a better stallion in a half dozen years.

I'll say this much for the mare. Her half bro and sister come from top stallion lines. Somebody invested in that mare- if they still are, something could pop up to help the page. Having DWL in there is f not the positive influence it was two decades ago, but sometimes trainers look at the families of those they've trained.

jm

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:45 pm 
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Have you considered any sons of Indian Charlie? He had a good affinity with Seattle Slew/Roberto line mares. His sons might be more readily available to choose from than the Kris S/Dynaformer your currently looking at?


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