What's with all the Invasor Front Runners?
They win as front runners when they are young, but stop winning as front runners when they face older horses. This is most obvious with the Euro-Invasors who run at longer distances. They look good at 3, late at 3 and at 4 they stop progressing. "Led early, weakened" - and finished up the track. After one or 2 of these they are sold and the new owners get a horse whose ratings drop like a stone from the 80s where they were. Once a horse is used to front running it seems hard to change but it can be done. Two dropping stones, Rawaafed and Enzaal, got their best results after being covered up. Enzaal just won a Class 6 (the level just above a claiming race) at 14f . Can he move up the ranks again or has he found his level? I don't know. The most important question is would he have done better all along if he'd been trained to use his speed as tactical speed in the first place?
The same pattern occurs in the US - more on this next time.
Invasor [ARG]
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Two really promising Invasors are the Very Funny turf sisters Invading Humor and Distorted Beauty (8,4,2,0).
Invading Humor is 4 and started out on dirt, coming from behind, She won a dirt claimer before being moved to turf where she was more forwardly placed. She wired 2 of her 5 turf wins, stalked 2 and ran mid pack in another. In her stakes win at 1 1/8 she stalked, was passed, then came on again for the victory. In her next stakes at 1 1/16 she was stuck in the middle between horses and didn't run her race. Then she tried to steal a 1 1/2 mile G3 on yielding turf, tracked by the horse with the fastest speed figures in the field. They were caught after 1 1/4 and finished unplaced. Invading Humor missed the mark but she can win a Graded Stakes - if her new trainer rearranges the pieces. She doesn't need the lead, can come on again if she has something left. Was yielding turf the problem? The distance? Should she have let the other speed horse "walk the dog"? An interesting puzzle.
Distorted Beauty is 3 and went right to turf after running 4th on dirt in her debut. On turf she is (7,4,2,0) and is stakes placed against an excellent, mostly European, field. She started out coming from behind but has been more and more forwardly placed. She tried to steal the Pebble Stakes and nearly succeeded, lost first place near the wire, finished 2nd. After that she was entered in the G2 Mrs Revere at Churchill along with 4 fillies from the Pebble Stakes. Distorted Beauty finished next to last after getting no closer than 8th. Does she need to break well and be forwardly placed these days? Was she trapped? The notes just say "never a threat". Horses she beat in the Pebbles did much better.
It's all up in the air. But let's hope the Very Funny Sisters don't turn into front runners.
US Invasor Front Runners - tomorrow.
Invading Humor is 4 and started out on dirt, coming from behind, She won a dirt claimer before being moved to turf where she was more forwardly placed. She wired 2 of her 5 turf wins, stalked 2 and ran mid pack in another. In her stakes win at 1 1/8 she stalked, was passed, then came on again for the victory. In her next stakes at 1 1/16 she was stuck in the middle between horses and didn't run her race. Then she tried to steal a 1 1/2 mile G3 on yielding turf, tracked by the horse with the fastest speed figures in the field. They were caught after 1 1/4 and finished unplaced. Invading Humor missed the mark but she can win a Graded Stakes - if her new trainer rearranges the pieces. She doesn't need the lead, can come on again if she has something left. Was yielding turf the problem? The distance? Should she have let the other speed horse "walk the dog"? An interesting puzzle.
Distorted Beauty is 3 and went right to turf after running 4th on dirt in her debut. On turf she is (7,4,2,0) and is stakes placed against an excellent, mostly European, field. She started out coming from behind but has been more and more forwardly placed. She tried to steal the Pebble Stakes and nearly succeeded, lost first place near the wire, finished 2nd. After that she was entered in the G2 Mrs Revere at Churchill along with 4 fillies from the Pebble Stakes. Distorted Beauty finished next to last after getting no closer than 8th. Does she need to break well and be forwardly placed these days? Was she trapped? The notes just say "never a threat". Horses she beat in the Pebbles did much better.
It's all up in the air. But let's hope the Very Funny Sisters don't turn into front runners.
US Invasor Front Runners - tomorrow.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Invasor Front Runners in the US
As in Europe, once Invasors start competing against older horses they aren't successful as front runners. Street Invader's window of opportunity as a front funner is closing. The last couple of times he didn't make it to the front and didn't run a step. The swift front runner Holy Invader was claimed, gelded, and is dropping like a stone through the claiming ranks. Saint Arthur, stakes winner as a front runner at 3 won a claimer as a front runner at 4 and hasn't run since. Spanish Invader is less successful as well. Al Faatik has a new lease on life as a front runner in $2,500 claimers, hopefully that isn't the destination for the rest. American trainers place horses rather than training them and just drop them down the ranks until they're gone.
We know Invasors develop late and maybe their tactical speed develops before the endurance they need to use it. We've seen only a couple of them begin to develop a real racing engine, which was Invasor's outstanding characteristic and turned his tactical speed into a deadly weapon he could use early for position and late to seize the win. Ausus was developing a big closing kick and the late Five Sixteen was starting to flash speed. On a smaller scale Invading Humor pressed, was passed, and took off again to score a stakes win and Expression made a "bold move" for her stakes win. But it seems that Quendom and Candy Stripes passed Invasor a perfectly harmonized set of genes for a big racing engine and that those genes aren't effective on their own, some minimum set must occur together. Raw speed, on the other hand has a much simpler inheritance. A lot of Candy Stripes good offspring inherited raw speed from their dam, like Le Roi Des Animaux.
The Very Funny sisters are entering a window of opportunity. Neither Invasive Humor or Distorted Beauty started out as front runners although they have run in that style lately. They both have speed but their speed figures aren't high. That indicates that they don't have huge raw speed, but if trained for flexibility and endurance they can take advantage of how a race unfolds...
As in Europe, once Invasors start competing against older horses they aren't successful as front runners. Street Invader's window of opportunity as a front funner is closing. The last couple of times he didn't make it to the front and didn't run a step. The swift front runner Holy Invader was claimed, gelded, and is dropping like a stone through the claiming ranks. Saint Arthur, stakes winner as a front runner at 3 won a claimer as a front runner at 4 and hasn't run since. Spanish Invader is less successful as well. Al Faatik has a new lease on life as a front runner in $2,500 claimers, hopefully that isn't the destination for the rest. American trainers place horses rather than training them and just drop them down the ranks until they're gone.
We know Invasors develop late and maybe their tactical speed develops before the endurance they need to use it. We've seen only a couple of them begin to develop a real racing engine, which was Invasor's outstanding characteristic and turned his tactical speed into a deadly weapon he could use early for position and late to seize the win. Ausus was developing a big closing kick and the late Five Sixteen was starting to flash speed. On a smaller scale Invading Humor pressed, was passed, and took off again to score a stakes win and Expression made a "bold move" for her stakes win. But it seems that Quendom and Candy Stripes passed Invasor a perfectly harmonized set of genes for a big racing engine and that those genes aren't effective on their own, some minimum set must occur together. Raw speed, on the other hand has a much simpler inheritance. A lot of Candy Stripes good offspring inherited raw speed from their dam, like Le Roi Des Animaux.
The Very Funny sisters are entering a window of opportunity. Neither Invasive Humor or Distorted Beauty started out as front runners although they have run in that style lately. They both have speed but their speed figures aren't high. That indicates that they don't have huge raw speed, but if trained for flexibility and endurance they can take advantage of how a race unfolds...
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Fortin returned to the races to win a 6f sprint by 4 3/4 lengths as the favorite at Tampa.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA3.pdf
Fortin was nominated to the TC and broke his maiden in a mile MSW, winning by 13 1/2 lengths.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=3
In his next race Fortin bore out on the turn and disappeared for 13 months. When he raced again he was 4th and disappeared again for 11 months. Obviously, Fortin has recurring issues. Now he is gelded and just dominated a claiming race. He was not claimed this time, but Stud El Aguila seems willing to let him go despite of his flashes of brilliance.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 14USA3.pdf
Fortin was nominated to the TC and broke his maiden in a mile MSW, winning by 13 1/2 lengths.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=3
In his next race Fortin bore out on the turn and disappeared for 13 months. When he raced again he was 4th and disappeared again for 11 months. Obviously, Fortin has recurring issues. Now he is gelded and just dominated a claiming race. He was not claimed this time, but Stud El Aguila seems willing to let him go despite of his flashes of brilliance.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Mooqtar finished 2nd of 13 in a 1400m handicap on dirt at Meydan
http://www.emiratesracing.com/node/6?id=2668&tab=1
He is slowly racing into fitness as the year ends and the racing season in Dubai gets under way. Last time he was second at Al Ain on dirt. We can hope that after a brilliant first race then not training on Mooqtar will make a career, even if not the career originally hoped for.
http://www.emiratesracing.com/node/6?id=2668&tab=1
He is slowly racing into fitness as the year ends and the racing season in Dubai gets under way. Last time he was second at Al Ain on dirt. We can hope that after a brilliant first race then not training on Mooqtar will make a career, even if not the career originally hoped for.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
I started following Invasor's progeny hoping to enjoy their triumphs. I learned a lot about racing. In the US there is a window for success when a horse is young and before they race older horses, and speed is the ticket. Very few Invasors are good at 2, very few win their first race. Worse, the ones that looked best at 2 didn't train on: Mooqtar, Mr Paladin, Saint Arthur are a few examples. Not only do Invasors develop late, it'a a bad idea to push them early. OK, wait till they are 3 - but then they quickly have to run against older horses and aren't ready. OK, they will come into their own later, at 4 and at 5 - that's when Invasor triumphed in the US and Dubai. But if they've been running without notable success until they are 4 they are pigeonholed as middling sprinters or milers, have run a lot of races, and may have physical issues like Photon (ankle). The exceptions were Ausus, G3 winner on grass at 1 3/8 and Invading Humor, stakes winner on grass at 1/1/8. Hopefully Distorted Beauty, already stakes placed on grass, will follow in her sister's footsteps. Expression is the best Invasor sprinter, stakes placed twice at 4 and a stakes winner at 5. Her owner/trainer, Charlton Baker, did an outstanding job of managing her - please, please, send him good horses!
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Aniar won on dirt at a mile at Fair Grounds. He stalked, vied outside on the far turn, dueled in the stretch and prevailed by a head.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA4.pdf
Invasive Cocktail was 2nd of 6 at Sunland Park in a 5.5f allowance on dirt. The winner won a Pyrrhic victory - he romped by 10 1/2 but was vanned off. Invasive Cocktail, devoid of early speed, raced between horses on the turn and finished a length ahead of the rest.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA4.pdf
Invasive Cocktail was 2nd of 6 at Sunland Park in a 5.5f allowance on dirt. The winner won a Pyrrhic victory - he romped by 10 1/2 but was vanned off. Invasive Cocktail, devoid of early speed, raced between horses on the turn and finished a length ahead of the rest.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Envahir finished 2nd of 6 in a turf mile MSW at Golden Gate. She pressed the pace, dueled with the leader and finally put her head in front of that one close to the wire. But they were both passed by the winner who had settled in 4th before making her move.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
Curious. Envahir is a slowish worker, instead of breezing she is urged ("handily"). Her first 2 races were MCL sprints and she was 2nd as a closer on dirt and synthetic. Then she was 4th in an MSW sprint on synthetic as a closer. On turf at a mile she's pressing the pace. Probably liked the slower fractions and may be a dual surface horse.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
Curious. Envahir is a slowish worker, instead of breezing she is urged ("handily"). Her first 2 races were MCL sprints and she was 2nd as a closer on dirt and synthetic. Then she was 4th in an MSW sprint on synthetic as a closer. On turf at a mile she's pressing the pace. Probably liked the slower fractions and may be a dual surface horse.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Succesful Brothers was 2nd of 7 in a Starter Allowance at a mile on dirt. He rated in 5th, circled 4 wide and closed steadily for the place finishing 4 1/4 clear of the rest.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA2.pdf
Maybe he needed more distance. But he is 20,2,9,1 - is that seconditis or what? He seems to enjoy having a target to run at so much he doesn't pass the last one. Maybe it's the name - take the s off the end so there's only one brother and use it to correct the spelling: Successful Brother. Sounds more like a winner.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA2.pdf
Maybe he needed more distance. But he is 20,2,9,1 - is that seconditis or what? He seems to enjoy having a target to run at so much he doesn't pass the last one. Maybe it's the name - take the s off the end so there's only one brother and use it to correct the spelling: Successful Brother. Sounds more like a winner.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Arbaah sold for an impressive $264,247 to China Horse Club as a broodmare.
http://www.irishracing.com/horse?prt=454415
http://www.irishracing.com/horse?prt=454415
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Fateel finished 3d of 12 in a 1 1/16 MSW on turf at Fair Grounds. He had a bad trip: stumbled at the start, bumped with another horse then trailed the field. He went 2 and 3 wide on the far turn, 5 wide into the stretch then closed strongly to just miss by 2 necks.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
Fateel has a big kick which he showed even in his first race at 5.5f on synthetic where he was dead last, 20 lengths from the front, then "displayed some late interest" in the stretch to finish 7th of 11, beaten 9 lengths. In his second race at a mile on turf he was 2nd past the 3/4 pole then ran out of gas entering the stretch and finished 9th of 12, beaten 6 3/4 lengths. Finishing 7th & 9th doesn't sound great - but Fateel showed flexibility, he could break 2nd and press the pace or he could show a closing kick that nearly got him into the winner's circle today.
Fateel is the most interesting new Invasor. He belongs to Shadwell and was foaled in April 2012 so he is only 2 by the calendar. As a turf horse he won't be pushed very hard to try for the TC here in the US, which is good. Having followed so many Invasors I have to say it: take care of him!
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA6.pdf
Fateel has a big kick which he showed even in his first race at 5.5f on synthetic where he was dead last, 20 lengths from the front, then "displayed some late interest" in the stretch to finish 7th of 11, beaten 9 lengths. In his second race at a mile on turf he was 2nd past the 3/4 pole then ran out of gas entering the stretch and finished 9th of 12, beaten 6 3/4 lengths. Finishing 7th & 9th doesn't sound great - but Fateel showed flexibility, he could break 2nd and press the pace or he could show a closing kick that nearly got him into the winner's circle today.
Fateel is the most interesting new Invasor. He belongs to Shadwell and was foaled in April 2012 so he is only 2 by the calendar. As a turf horse he won't be pushed very hard to try for the TC here in the US, which is good. Having followed so many Invasors I have to say it: take care of him!
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Expression is running in the 6f Interborough Stakes at Aqueduct Jan 17
Here are the pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... aram3=1377
Expression won her first stakes last time out. She benefitted from a speed duel at the front. Expression, a closer (normally a disadvantage at Aqueduct), made a bold stretch move to take the race. One of the speed duelists, Bridgehampton, is in this race and there are 2 others with early speed. The ML favorite, Willet, is a multiple stakes winner and G2 placed. She finished 3d in Expression's last race and was going to be retired but her connections want her to go out a winner.
Here are the pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... aram3=1377
Expression won her first stakes last time out. She benefitted from a speed duel at the front. Expression, a closer (normally a disadvantage at Aqueduct), made a bold stretch move to take the race. One of the speed duelists, Bridgehampton, is in this race and there are 2 others with early speed. The ML favorite, Willet, is a multiple stakes winner and G2 placed. She finished 3d in Expression's last race and was going to be retired but her connections want her to go out a winner.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Expression finished 3d of 6 in the Interborough Stakes. I'm blaming her jockey for this one. She broke last (not his fault) and trailed the field. She was 12 lengths from the front at 1/4 (in a sprint) then was guided to the inside to save ground. She remained last to the head of the stretch. Finally, she fanned 6 wide and made her run. Maybe the jockey was thinking she'd close as fast as she did last time when there was a speed duel on a muddy track and horses were coming back to her but speed held better on today's fast track. There was a speed duel and the favorite, Willet, had unleashed a bold charge at the front runners earlier and rolled by them. Willet "was put into brisk hand urging in the final 70 yards on espying a full of run Expression and kept comfortably in the clear". Expression missed catching the winner of the speed duel by a neck to get 3d.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA3.pdf
She ran well to cut that 12 lengths down to 1 3/4. Needed to be a bit closer and/or move a bit sooner.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA3.pdf
She ran well to cut that 12 lengths down to 1 3/4. Needed to be a bit closer and/or move a bit sooner.
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Peron made her debut in an MSW at Laurel at a mile. In the backstretch and rushed up between horses to 3d place, then faltered and finished up the track. Yesterday she finished 2nd of 6 at Laurel in a $25,000 MCL after bumping a horse at the start and moving up 4 deep in the turn. She seems to be tough but hasn't developed yet - her works are rather slow. Her connections dropped her in class and distance and got a 2nd but maybe patience would get even better results? BTW why name a filly after Juan Peron, dictator of Argentina?
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA1.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 15USA1.pdf
Re: Invasor [ARG]
Video of the Interborough stakes - Expression made a nice late move.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rborough-s
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... rborough-s