Barretts 2yo sale: more insanity!

Talk about upcoming sales or auction results.

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Michael
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Barretts 2yo sale: more insanity!

Postby Michael » Tue Mar 15, 2005 7:22 pm

Hip 143--$1.9 million.

By first crop sire SONGANDAPRAYER (8 starts, 3 wins), out of a Washington-bred SW (at Yakima Meadows) by TOUGH KNIGHT (6 starts, 3 wins)

No graded black type on page for at least three generations.

BUT he worked a quarter mile in :20.6

So let me see: A $2 million QH whose pedigree suggests he won't make more than a half dozen starts, whose female family is non-marketable on a stallion, and whose sire hasn't even sired a starter yet.

I don't know what lunatic bought this high probability breakdown star, or what agent(s) pocketed hundreds of thousands on him. But I am going to watch with great interest how well and how long he performs when he runs in TB races longer than 440 yards.

Insanity!

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Re: Barretts 2yo sale: more insanity!

Postby LSB » Tue Mar 15, 2005 9:07 pm

Michael wrote:I don't know what lunatic bought this high probability breakdown star, or what agent(s) pocketed hundreds of thousands on him. But I am going to watch with great interest how well and how long he performs when he runs in TB races longer than 440 yards.Insanity!


The buyers were Bob & Beverly Lewis with Sid & Jenny Craig the under bidders.

And I agree with your assessment. I have to say though that since the Lewises pocketed something like $11,000,000 last November dispersing much of their breeding stock, it's nice to see them put some of the money back into the industry.

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Postby LSB » Wed Mar 16, 2005 8:11 am

The sale ended up with 88 sold and 113 either RNA'd or Withdrawn. Both the median and the average were down from last year.

Second 2yO sale in a row with fewer than half the catalogued horses sold. It will be interesting to see how the pinhookers respond to those numbers.

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Postby freddymo » Wed Mar 16, 2005 8:15 am

LSB. Bob and Bev, want to race not breed. I have seen them interviewed and all they want is to win big races, not breed. For them at there stage in life they have earned the right to have as much fun as they can. I believe they are still active purchasing yearlings as well. If I was them,had that cash, and there passion for the sport, I would be bidding right along side. CONGRATULATION LEWIS"S and GOOD LUCK. As for the 1.9mil...the .9 was a joke never mind the 1.9... Maybe 90.0k would fit into my budget lol

Respectfully

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Postby Michael » Wed Mar 16, 2005 8:45 am

Maybe the Lewis' are pointing this new colt towards the All-American Futurity. All they need is special permission to run a TB against QHs. That's about the only way they figure to break even on this lemon.

As for my second question--what agent(s) pocketed the most from this deal?

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Postby Sysonby » Wed Mar 16, 2005 8:48 am

LSB wrote:The sale ended up with 88 sold and 113 either RNA'd or Withdrawn. Both the median and the average were down from last year.



I wonder how many of those were hurt or lame. I saw a few horses pulled out after the second preview and they were ouchy. One in particular obviously had been standing in ice. One was not sold because of a pretty evident bowed tendon.

In my admittedly limited experience, par for the course for the two year old sales.

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Postby Michael » Wed Mar 16, 2005 10:28 am

If you have a little spare time, and want evidence to support your claim (with which I totally agree), simply refer to the Barretts website (or obs, or Keeneland, or Fasig-Tipton, it doesn't matter that much), for this information from the last 5-6 years:

1) Fastest pre-sale workouts

2) Highest priced horses

3) Outs and RNA's

Then, by using an APR, determine the career earnings of the above horses. You'll see, as I did several years ago when I conducted this little experiment, that only a mere pittance of these sacrificial babies break even, much less make a profit, for their new owners. Even when you factor back in the residual values of the best ones, it's still difficult to make an argument that 2yo sales are a wise bet.

I hate to say it, but I think Frank Stronach's "gallop only" policy for his 2yo sale is the only proper one.

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Postby LSB » Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:23 pm

Michael wrote:I hate to say it, but I think Frank Stronach's "gallop only" policy for his 2yo sale is the only proper one.


Am I reading you correctly that you "hate to say it" because it's hard to agree with Stronach about anything?

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Postby Michael » Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:40 pm

Yes, or perhaps more to the point, it's hard to agree with much that he has DONE. His promises often sound magnificent, but his results are too often deficient. But that's a WHOLE DIFFERENT THREAD than this! At least Frankie is operating his 2yo sale as he said he would--gallop only.

BTW, just read that Magna paid Frank $40 MILLION in 2004 for his consulting services. How much longer does anyone think Magna can continue to lose about $100,000,000 annually before it pulls the plug on him?

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Postby Tairaterces » Wed Mar 16, 2005 1:06 pm

Michael wrote:Maybe the Lewis' are pointing this new colt towards the All-American Futurity. All they need is special permission to run a TB against QHs. That's about the only way they figure to break even on this lemon.

As for my second question--what agent(s) pocketed the most from this deal?



http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27171

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Postby SilverGhost » Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:24 pm

Here's more evidence of the insanity we see at the marketplace:

www.ThoroughbredReview.com/1stYearCommSires.htm

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Postby Cathy D » Wed Mar 16, 2005 3:09 pm

Seems to me if you are planning to spend big bucks, it would be wiser to buy a good horse in training privately. War Emblem at about $1 million looks like a bargain compared to the sales topping two year olds. Wasn't there recently an article in the TB Times that tracked racing results of million and up two year olds? According to their table, highest race track earnings were $133,000, and most of them either never started or never won a race.

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Postby Michael » Wed Mar 16, 2005 4:40 pm

I agree with that, but it's hard to find a sound, proven racehorse that isn't overpriced. The prices are out of this world. My trainer recently sold a Cal-bred colt he had purchased as a yearling for $30,000, strictly off conformation. Won his second start at Santa Anita, Cal bred maiden special weight, by five lengths at 6 furlongs. Sold him for $350,000 and was sorry to lose him. He had people calling him from all over the U.S. And just off a state bred maiden race--imagine what they pay for bona fide KY derby horses!

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Postby freddymo » Thu Mar 17, 2005 7:25 am

Silver Ghost when I read the article and looked at the stats/grid I realized that absolutely nothing was insane or even wrong with the then or now market. LOOK at the graded stakes starters/winners. The article is incredibly misleading what it should say is that with 90 foals from proven sires produced 3 graded stakes winners. It should have then emphaised that the NEW HOT HYPED SIRES got 8 graded winners/participants. An increase of 35%(adjusted for additional 50 foals) from the PROVEN not to be able to have as many graded winners Stallions. lol

Why is it so hard to understand the sport costs more to play at the highest level. Unless you want to count on luck only. Once you start to inhance your opportunity to TRY to complete at the Graded and Group level, money should not be significant.

Respectfully

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Postby llbean » Thu Mar 17, 2005 11:05 pm

freddymo wrote:
Why is it so hard to understand the sport costs more to play at the highest level. Unless you want to count on luck only. Once you start to enhance your opportunity to TRY to complete at the Graded and Group level, money should not be significant.

Respectfully


Do you have any idea what you just said? Namely: "Money is not significant."

Even if money has no value (after all, it's just pieces of paper, man); don't you think that buying horses for far more than they're worth will attract hucksters?

-llbean