Fasig-Tipton July Sale

[secretariat]

thankyou

[skeenan]

Very unusual to have a 3 year old racehorse in this sale - Buzzards Bay, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and a good 5th in the KY Derby.

What do you think he will sell for?

I believe he sold for $725,000...

I scanned the pricing from yesterday, and there doesn't seem to be any consistency at all... why would one El Corredor colt sell for $385,000, and some not sell at all...? (besides the reserves, which were well below that number).

Are people looking that hard at the dam's pedigree? Or is there a huge difference in his offspring's looks & conformation?

[horsenuts]

Very unusual to have a 3 year old racehorse in this sale - Buzzards Bay, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and a good 5th in the KY Derby.

What do you think he will sell for?

I believe he sold for $725,000...

I scanned the pricing from yesterday, and there doesn't seem to be any consistency at all... why would one El Corredor colt sell for $385,000, and some not sell at all...? (besides the reserves, which were well below that number).

Are people looking that hard at the dam's pedigree? Or is there a huge difference in his offspring's looks & conformation?

People are looking at looks and confirmation more than pedigree.. which is the right way to start in the purchase of any horse.

[Sysonby]

[quote="skeenan]I scanned the pricing from yesterday, and there doesn't seem to be any consistency at all... why would one El Corredor colt sell for $385,000, and some not sell at all...? (besides the reserves, which were well below that number).

Are people looking that hard at the dam's pedigree? Or is there a huge difference in his offspring's looks & conformation?[/quote]

Not just looks although certainly that is part of it. Some horse vet out better than others. Some horses don't scope and others have bad X-rays.

Pedigree is kind of secondary at a sale like Fasig Tipton. Most of these horses really don't have much residual value--they have to be runners or at the very least preview well early next year. So generally these buyers are looking for athletes first and pedigree second.

[skeenan]

Hmmm... interesting for sure! Thanks for the insight...

[StrawberryFelidos]

People are looking at looks and confirmation more than pedigree.. which is the right way to start in the purchase of any horse.

Which is why I hear that hip#133, the Smarty Jones half-brother, sold for only $40k. Something about those legs... HoosierShadow has a picture of him in her finalturngallery.com album, the legs are kinda Gumby-like

[Ill-bred]

A few novice observations about the first-year sires after spending four days at the Fasig-Tipton sale

The first day of the sale that featured the newer sires was considerably weaker than Day 2. Very few of the first-year sires impressed me. The only two that consistently caught my eye were Officer and Jump Start.

Officer was a surprise b/c I was not a big fan of him as a racehorse but after seeing his babies I'd say he has a real chance to succeed as a sire. Saw a bunch of well-balanced individuals that looked like race horses, and I also like that he is not from one of the typical sire lines.

The Jump Starts (AP Indy, and they look it) are very interesting. They mostly sold in the 30-60k range, but I predict one or more of these babies could pop up big.

I wrote previously on the board that I was rooting for Exchange Rate. He did have a 1/2 bro in the sale to Closing Argument, but overall I have to admit the Exchange Rates were not much to look at.

Probably forgetting a few things, but I looked at a ton of horses and I'm still recovering....

-The Songandaprayers continue to look good and sell way above stud fee. Wonder what they'll set the new price at? 25k? 40k?

-El Corredor appears the real deal.

The sales topper, imho, was a classy looking horse but if he's the best horse to come of the sale I'll be surprised. I viewed Coolmore spending 650k on him as nothing more than an advertsing fee for Giant's Causeway. There were another half dozen to a dozen yearlings that I liked just as much or more than him.

[Sysonby]

The sales topper, imho, was a classy looking horse but if he's the best horse to come of the sale I'll be surprised. I viewed Coolmore spending 650k on him as nothing more than an advertsing fee for Giant's Causeway. There were another half dozen to a dozen yearlings that I liked just as much or more than him.

I looked at the GC the same way and I understand from good sources that there was more than a little of that going on. Personally, I view the new sales integrity guidelines as window dressing--they propose changing the curtains in a burning house.

With regard to the real sales, I heard that there was just no bottom. Lots of people were prepared to play in the $100-300,000 range if you brought the right horse. Practically no one wanted to buy the under $50,000 horse and only a few were there to pick up a horse between $50,000-100,000. Apparently those people would have been much better served being at Keeneland later this summer--and perhaps some of them will be.

[roving boy]

I agree with both Sysonby and Ill-bred that the GC was a nice horse but not exceptional.

The price and position as the sale topper was certainly advertising, but I can assure you that the consignor had no part in it.

I also agree strongly that the buyers were not interested in anything less than $75,000 in value. Those horses less than that struggled.

The El Corredor colt that sold for $385 was special, probably my favorite horse of the sale. Great walker with great balance and athleticism (he got away from his handler 3 times the first day he was shown) and definitely a natural horse - not overly muscular (anabolics). Also a real sale, no funny business. The consignor is the breeder; she owns about 6 mares and does all her own work on her own little farm near Lawrenceburg, KY.

I hope the CBA is more than windowdressing as some of the organizers are serious and have strong ethics. Just knowing that Rob Whiteley worked so hard on it makes me want to support it without reading the fine print.

[FOS]

hi Ill-bred...hi Sysonby

Ill bred you wrote "The sales topper, imho, was a classy looking horse but if he's the best horse to come of the sale I'll be surprised. I viewed Coolmore spending 650k on him as nothing more than an advertsing fee for Giant's Causeway."

Sysonby...you wrote "I looked at the GC the same way and I understand from good sources that there was more than a little of that going on. Personally, I view the new sales integrity guidelines as window dressing--they propose changing the curtains in a burning house.

A very funny...but also sad commentary.

Respectfully

[ZiaLand]

Very unusual to have a 3 year old racehorse in this sale - Buzzards Bay, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and a good 5th in the KY Derby.

What do you think he will sell for?

I believe he sold for $725,000...

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?!

I'd love to hear some comments on this. I didn't see BB as a particularly interesting stud prospect. Do you think the buyers are intending to race him and they are expecting a huge improvement as he matures? I honestly thought he'd go for 1/10th to 1/5th this price. But what do I know? LOL I'm floored.

Laurie

[roving boy]

He is a G1 winning 3 year old eligible for all the 3 year old restricted stakes left in 2005 - he worked 1:12 and change last Monday (July 11) and will probably run in the August 14 $750,000 West Virginia Derby (G3). I think he has a great chance of earning $500,000 plus before the end of the year.

Talk at the sale ground was that he could bring more than a million in spite of his lack of value as a stallion prospect.

Wouldn't all of that make him a good buy at $725,000 for someone that wanted to race at the upper levels?

[ZiaLand]

Roving Boy,

Thanks for the additional info. Yes, he could be a very good buy, or a huge gamble that doesn't pay off. At any rate, at least the buyer knows he's capable of winning a G1, unlike some of these high-priced yearlings that are total unknowns. I really like this horse, but other than his one G1 win I don't feel he showed a lot running at the top.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on him as the next year or two unfolds. I wish his connections all the best and hope this turns out to be a tremendous buy for them.

Laurie

[HR LLC]

ZiaLand,
Regardless of his weak pedigree, I am surprised you dont think BB was a value at 725k. Of course, any horse is a risky investment but the fact that you got a 3YO Grade 1 winner with a ton of 3YO only races left this year. I thought he would bring over 1 million. You got people at the sale paying 500k plus for yearlings that may never break their maidens or make it to the track.

[ZiaLand]

HR LLC, I understand your argument, but I just don't think the price was justified. I'm looking at this strictly from an investment standpoint. To me, it would be like buying a business that's in decline and may have already had it's best profit quarters. Yes, it could conceivably make a profit in the future but if the recent sales figures have been on a downhill trend, these buyers are paying (what I consider) top dollar for a business (horse) that may have already seen it's best days. (Excuse the analogy.)

If Buzzard Bay had had a better showing after that G1 win, I might feel differently. I'd also feel differently if the colt had a strong enough pedigree to be an attractive stallion prospect. That way, the investment would have at least two chances for some kind of return.

It has already been stated that the horse has "a chance at" earning $500,000 yet this year. Even if he does so, the new owners are still a quarter million dollars in the red. If he comes back to run his 4YO season he may be able to earn an additional $250K-$300K, and that would barely bring them to the breakeven point once you consider all the training fees, entry fees, board, care and other expenses associated with a horse running at this level.

Again, no slam against Buzzard's Bay. I like the horse. I hope he earns his new owners a couple of million and proves my argument all wrong. But based on what I've seen, I don't think it's likely. I'm really just trying to understand the business concepts behind such a purchase.

Thanks all,
Laurie