Raise A Native Sire Line

[aethervox]

I would like to point out that sirelines are still used as a kind of shorthand to indicate a horse's pedigree. There are still articles on sirelines on the Bloodhorse.com web site.

I would also like to point out that it is confusing (to me at least) to say that Northern Dancer and Sarava are from the same sire line, as Northern Dancer is considered the founder of his own sire line. It would be less confusing (again to me, at least) to say that Sarava and Northern Dancer are both from the Nearctic Sire line.

Getting back to the topic (and hopefully away from the sniping)...

For the Derby:

Averaging the performance numbers of colts (divided along sire lines) and fillies entered in the Derby from 1983 through 2012 (and deleting the 'did not finish' horse, Quinton's Gold Rush) gave the following results (positive indicates top half of field, negative, bottom half):

Darley Arabian with RAN: 0.70
Darley Arabian w/o RAN: -0.17
Byerley Turk: 2.5
Godolphin Arabian/Barb: -1.81
Fillies: -0.11

Again, there's a big enough sample size for the Darley Arabian sire line to be statistically significant--144 tail male to Raise a Native, and 376 horses that aren't tail male to Raise a Native.

The data I'm seeing so far support Stan's hypothesis that horses that are tail-male to Raise a Native perform better (i.e. finish in the top half of the field) in the Derby and Belmont.

So, what factors could be causing the difference?

@xfactor fan: Any data could be analyzed the same way, but I don't have records of breeders or stud locations in my database.

[ElPrado]

Ok, I'll wave my magic wand.
Both are in the Nearctic sire line.
See how easy that was? You only had to go back one generation.
Do you see what we are trying to say now?

[xfactor fan]

My vote is to leave off the debate on sirelines, and concentrate on the interesting pattern that stan has turned up.

Given that it is not one the Y, ( or not likely on the Y) what other things could look like a male sex linked trait?

Also from aethervox

Darley Arabian with RAN: 0.70
Darley Arabian w/o RAN: -0.17
Byerley Turk: 2.5
Godolphin Arabian/Barb: -1.81
Fillies: -0.11

Byerley Turk 2.5 ??? more than 3 times that of the Darley Arabian via RAN? Is this the real number, or did a minus sign get left off?

If this is accurate then this makes a huge impact, given the relative numbers.

[diomed]

Bast: You said a similar statement could have been made about Bold Ruler in 1979. That's true but Bold Ruler's reign ended in 1979 whereas RAN's reign was just getting started around 1978 when Affirmed won the Triple Crown. RAN's sire line generated 18 Derby winners whereas Bold Ruler's sire line only generated 8 Derby winners. With all the RAN sire line horses at stud today the total foals with this sire line is immense compared to the foal total of Bold Ruler sire line back in the 70s.

I do not think the statement is the kiss of death especially since the RAN sire line has been dominant over the last 15 years in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Every sire line fades in its influence eventually but I really do not think the RAN sire line is going to fade in the near future. Some years ago I had a discussion like this on another forum and some guy stated that the RAN sire line has already begun to fade and that was in 2010 in March. Then Super Saver wins the roses, Lookin at Lucky wins the Preakness and Drosselmeyer wins the Belmont. I said if it is fading it sure didn't look like it that year where the RAN sire line accounted for all 3 legs of the Triple Crown

Sire lines come and sire lines go.

Raise a Native looks like he'll be around forever, but you never know.

Yep.
Sincerely, St. Simon and Lexington

[aethervox]

My vote is to leave off the debate on sirelines, and concentrate on the interesting pattern that stan has turned up.

Given that it is not one the Y, ( or not likely on the Y) what other things could look like a male sex linked trait?

Also from aethervox

Darley Arabian with RAN: 0.70
Darley Arabian w/o RAN: -0.17
Byerley Turk: 2.5
Godolphin Arabian/Barb: -1.81
Fillies: -0.11

Byerley Turk 2.5 ??? more than 3 times that of the Darley Arabian via RAN? Is this the real number, or did a minus sign get left off?

If this is accurate then this makes a huge impact, given the relative numbers.

The number is accurate, but it's only one horse, Dr. Devious, who ran in 1992 and finished 7th.

During the same period there were 18 starters from the Godolphin Arabian/Barb Sire Line and there were 9 Fillies.

[Pan Zareta]

As for the difference between Northern Dancer and Raise a Native, it might be that Northern Dancer carried the C or speed gene. Which would create early maturing horses that would do better at shorter distances. While Raise a Native was more likely to be T/T, which has a advantage for distance.

Since his sire Nearctic is suspected of having been C/C, Northern Dancer probably did have at least one copy of the C allele. Based upon the performance of RAN's actual progeny it seems most unlikely that he was T/T. Mr. P., a record-setting sprinter, was far more typical of his sire's get than classic winners Alydar & Majestic Prince.

[vineyridge]

There some mares who are primarily dams of sires; and there are some mares who are primarily dams of broodmares; and there are some mares who are good at both.

Selene, although she does have some good daughters through mostly All Moonshine, is one of those who is a dam of sires, and she is in RAN through Sickle and in Buckpasser through Pharamond II. How many of the RAN runners also have through other sire?

Do we have any idea why some mares are dams of sires, some mares are dams of dams, and some mares produce both sexes well?

[xfactor fan]

Lets pretend there is something --multiple genes involved --so it is not a simple dominant recessive.

Here's a pattern.

Discovery--Major racehorse. Don't think the Y line is around today.

However his daughters produced Native Dancer and Bold Ruler.

Bold Ruler sired Secretariat

Secretariat is mostly seen today via two maternal grand sons:

Storm Cat and AP Indy

Native Dancer is represented by his maternal grandson Northern Dancer.

So does this pattern continue? Both back and forward?

[ElPrado]

Looks to me that it is carried on the dam line.

[xfactor fan]

Most likely autosomal, not sex linked at all.

[stancaris]

Another year goes by and we find that the first four horses crossed the finish line in the Derby all carried the RAN sire line. The first two finishers in the Preakness carried the RAN sire line and the third and fourth finisher in the Belmont carried the RAN sire line.

The evidence is strong that this is a superior sire line in all three Triple crown races over the last 20 years or more.

One explanation: There are multiple genes working to make this happen. Perhaps genes on autosomes working together with genes on the Y could produce the desired phenotypes that make RAN a standout sire line. Mutiple genes (some on the Y chromosome and some on autosomes) forming a characteristic is fairly common in the complexities of genetics.

The bottom line is still the same: The RAN sire line is superior in all three legs of the Triple Crown. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that this sire line is superior to all others in the Triple Crown.

[ElPrado]

Shhh! Someone might hear you....

[Tappiano]

Do you know what percentage they comprise of their respective foal crops?

[stancaris]

Tappiano: In order to find out the percentage of foal crops one would have to have access to the data of all those horses born in a given year and analyze the data to determine what percentage of those foals carried the RAN sire line.

I have some small sampling evidence to come up with the following statistic- my guess would be around 30-40% of all foals born carry the RAN sire line. Why do I come up with that figure ? I just counted the starters in Saturdays races at Belmont Park and found that in the first 8 races there were 77 starters and 27 of them carried the RAN sire line. So, 27 divided by 77 equals .35 or 35%. Interestingly, usually 35% of the top 20 stallions in gross earnings are RAN sire line horses. Of course the above doesn't really do justice to the overall statistic which can only be gleaned from the whole crop and the percentage of that crop with the RAN sire line. However, one can deduce that if 35% of the top 20 stallions in gross earnings are usually RAN sire line horses then once can conclude that approx. 35% of all foals born are RAN sire line. Unless the RAN sire line horses outperform their opportunities then it would be less than 35%. If the RAN sire line horses underperform their opportunities the percentage would be higher than 35%

As far as the Triple Crown is concerned the RAN sire line horse has outperformed its opportunities very strongly in all three Triple Crown events. Strong impact values are found in all three jewels of the Triple Crown with the RAN sire line horse. It wasn't pure coincidence that the first four finishers of the Derby, the first two finishers of the Preakness and the third and fourth finishers of the Belmont stakes were RAN sire line horses this year.

If what you are getting at is the abundance of RAN sire line horses, then I agree with you (they are very abundant) but so too are the Northern Dancer line horses and they do not do anywhere as well in all three legs of the Triple Crown by comparison to Raise A Native sire line runners.

[ElPrado]

Which probably has it's roots in the fact that far more of the Northern Dancer line are better on turf.