Some Bottom Line Granddam Surprises

Understanding pedigrees, inbreeding, dosage, etc.

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Patuxet
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Some Bottom Line Granddam Surprises

Postby Patuxet » Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:06 pm

Adrian Parry posted the following on tb_breeding_theory@yahoogroups:

I've had a quick look at the dam's dam's sire position (eg Rainbow Quest is in that position for Frankel). I restricted the search to horses 2006-2009. Some results I didn't expect.

I found Nureyev there on 426 occasions but in only 1 stakes winner.

The Minstrel 232 times but in only 1 stakes winner.

Danehill 159 times for 1 stakes winner

Mr Prospector 684 times for just 4 stakes winners.

At the other end we have Never Bend occurs 43 times and 9 stakes

Indeed horses like Plugged Nickle, Quadratic, Cormorant all 8/41 are much more successful.

I'm really confused about Mr P because he's good as a broodmare sire but seems rubbish as a mares broodmare sire.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

Tappiano
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Postby Tappiano » Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:22 am

And that is because how many of those mares were bred to AP Indy?

xfactor fan
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Postby xfactor fan » Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:35 pm

How many stallions did you run in this study? Or did you just look at the horses that were named?

stancaris
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second damsire of what population?

Postby stancaris » Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:36 pm

Patuxet: What population did that study involve? All stakes winners, alll winners of Grade 1 stakes ? or what?

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Patuxet
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Postby Patuxet » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:45 pm

Address questions directly to Adrian Parry at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tb_breeding_theory/

It's a group which he developed for the discussion of theories pertaining to the breeding of a superior racehorse.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

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Patuxet
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Postby Patuxet » Tue Jan 29, 2013 7:24 am

An explanation for the results.

I asked Adrian: "What, other than year of birth, determined/characterized the groups you analyzed? Allison"

He answered: "Nothing. I just looked at all the horses I had in database in recent years to see who their dam's dam's sires where.
I just wanted to see who appears there most in current pedigrees. I expected Mr Prospector to appear most. So that was no surprise, I didn't expect him to be in so few stakes winners in that position. Regards, AP"


Rob added that: "Mr. Prospector had much better results in that position roughly a decade earlier, in North America. An analysis by David Dink showed Mr. P less common in that position in 1995-97, but with 39/379 SWs. His sire, Raise a Native, was the most common in that position, with 30/747 SWs. Doing even better than Mr. P were Bold Reasoning, 5/37, Hoist the Flag, 39/294, and good old Never Bend, 43/416.
Of the 20 sires found most often in that position, the least good performer was Intentionally, 3/87. Rob"


Yesterday Adrian posted that he'd found a programming error which explained the skewed results.

"I'm a daft sod. Just spent 20 minutes looking at the programming logic and there is not an error there. However, something that seemed odd was that no-one had more than 9 stakes winners and that supplied the light bulb moment. I checked the database and I was using 1 digit to store the stakes winning count .. so 9 + 1 became 0 etc.'
'During those years Mr Prospector was in position 684 times. 46 of them were Group winners so much more like what I expected.'.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V

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Joltman
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Postby Joltman » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:34 pm

the world is back in balance... I know the pitfalls of programming...

jm
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