I noticed that 4 of the last 5 Derby winners were inbred 4X4 or closer to Northern Dancer or Northern Dancer line stallions or to Mr. Prospector.
Question: Is this the start of a new trend? I found that from 2001-2007 none of the Derby winners had inbreeding 4X4 or closer.
inbreeding
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, Lucy
Stan
I believe what you are seeing is evolution with the Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector and Bold Ruler lines. Most people that I know count 10 years as a generation in racing. There are no Northern Dancer or Bold Ruler sons at stud and they have been moving backward in pedigrees for several horse generations. The three most successful stallions in the last two decades have been Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and A.P. Indy, none of which are still in production. They now are leading broodmare sires and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation inbreeding will be the result. That is of course if you are following the dictum "breed the best to the best and hope for the best".
DDT
I believe what you are seeing is evolution with the Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector and Bold Ruler lines. Most people that I know count 10 years as a generation in racing. There are no Northern Dancer or Bold Ruler sons at stud and they have been moving backward in pedigrees for several horse generations. The three most successful stallions in the last two decades have been Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and A.P. Indy, none of which are still in production. They now are leading broodmare sires and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation inbreeding will be the result. That is of course if you are following the dictum "breed the best to the best and hope for the best".
DDT
looking over the contenders
DDT: I looked at the pedigrees for the major contenders from pools 1 and 2 and also Watchmakers top 20. Here is what I found:
18 of the contenders had 4X4 inbreeding or closer to Mr. Prospector, Raise A Native or Northern Dancer or Blushing Groom or Fappiano or Secretariat or Hoist the Flag or In Reality or Deputy Minister.
The only contenders I noticed without 4X4 inbreeding were Mylute, Vyjack, Uncaptured and Palace Malice who probably is no longer on the trail to CD. So of the 22 contenders 18 have 4X4 inbreeding or closer and only 4 have no inbreeding within the first 4 generations.
I am going to follow the above 4 closely to see if any of them run big in their next start. At least they have a reasonable facsimile of hybridization since they lack inbreeding within the first four generations. Giacomo, Funny Cide and War Emblem and Smarty Jones and Street Sense and Monarchos are some recent examples of Derby winners that did not have inbreeding within their first four generations and they all ran very well in their final prep race for the KY Derby.
18 of the contenders had 4X4 inbreeding or closer to Mr. Prospector, Raise A Native or Northern Dancer or Blushing Groom or Fappiano or Secretariat or Hoist the Flag or In Reality or Deputy Minister.
The only contenders I noticed without 4X4 inbreeding were Mylute, Vyjack, Uncaptured and Palace Malice who probably is no longer on the trail to CD. So of the 22 contenders 18 have 4X4 inbreeding or closer and only 4 have no inbreeding within the first 4 generations.
I am going to follow the above 4 closely to see if any of them run big in their next start. At least they have a reasonable facsimile of hybridization since they lack inbreeding within the first four generations. Giacomo, Funny Cide and War Emblem and Smarty Jones and Street Sense and Monarchos are some recent examples of Derby winners that did not have inbreeding within their first four generations and they all ran very well in their final prep race for the KY Derby.
The pattern is that everything "Storm Cat" went to "AP Indy" and then to Mr. Prospector (or any combination of them and/or their sires) and now, several generations later what choices are there that don't have at least two of those?
The trend I see is the one's you reference that don't have inbreeding in the first four generations were not sold for a whole lot of money.... and that would be because.... they are not sired by horses who are inbred to the one's listed above.
The trend I see is the one's you reference that don't have inbreeding in the first four generations were not sold for a whole lot of money.... and that would be because.... they are not sired by horses who are inbred to the one's listed above.