Pedigree Query

In reference to appearances in the X passion position of Kentucky Derby winners over the last 30 years I compiled data for Buckpasser and Mr. Prospector. Here are my results:

Buckpasser in the X passing position of Ky Derby winners 1987-2016

7 Derby winners
11 Derby place finishers
Total 18 appearances

Mr. Prospecctor in the X passing position of Ky Derby winners 1987-2016
1 Derby winner
3 Derby place finishers
Total 4 appearances.

The score is 18 to 4 in favor of Buckpasser. One would expect more appearances than a meager four from Mr. Prospector in that position since he led the broodmare sire list 8 or 9 times. My conclusion-- Buckpasser in the X bestows stamina whereas Mr. Prospector in the X does not.

Stan:Your enduring "X passion" is like some whacko flat earth theory based on pseudo science and definitively proven to be flat wrong. Get it, get over it and get on with it. So many chromosomes, so little time.

stancaris wrote:...in the X passion position...

Quite the Freudian slip there.

Stan

I have thought all day that I would not post here, but I cannot go past this. First, you are looking at a race that is restricted by age, money or points earned and number of starters, horses only get one shot at the race. Second, because of the full fields in the modern running of the race, post position and trouble free trips usually have an edge to get the money and the winner is not always the best or fastest horse in the race. Third, with the exception of a very few winners, this race does not produce leading sires. That being said, your continued opinion of the power of the X chromosome in general and Buckpasser's X in particular has not been verified by science, in fact, as of this date there have been very few performance enhancing genes attributed to the X chromosome. As an aside to this argument, Buckpasser is also tail male to 3 Derby winners, none of which had the magic X.

I have advised you in the past that using progeny earnings as a guide to establish greatness is flawed because it is a numbers game. Mr. Prospector led the list 8 or 9 times in a row and for many of those years he was represented by the most mares in production and the most runners racing each year. The Mr. Prospector/Raise A Native sire line has produced the most Derby winners of any modern sire line, and because his daughters have only produced 1 winner in the Derby that makes him a chump when it comes to the X passing position in your opinion.

In my opinion Buckpasser is the greatest Broodmare Sire in the modern era, possibly of all time. When you think about the fact that he had limited books which resulted in 20-25 daughters a year during his stud career it should make one wonder how he did it. The answer is, he passed along 31 additional chromosomes with his X or Y.

DDT

How much evidence do you need? Here is some more overwhelming evidence that Buckpasser in the X provides stamina and Mr. Prospector in the X path does not provide stamina.

Belmont Stakes Winners and Place Finishers regarding Mr. Prospector and Buckpasser in X passing positions over the last 30 years: 1987 thru 2016.

Winners of Belmont with Buckpasser in the X passing position--------- 9
Place finishers of Belmont with Buckpasser in the X passing position-----7

Winners of the Belmont with Mr. Prospector in the X passing position-----0
Place finishers in Belmont with Mr. Prospector in the X passing position---2

So how many Belmont stakes winners did Buckpasser have in the X passing position since 1987. The answer is 9. How about Mr. Prospector in the X? The answer is a big fat ZERO.

The final score is astonishing: 16 for Buckpasser in the X and 2 for Mr. Prospector in the X for winners and place finishers over the last 30 years.

Interestingly, Mr. Prospector's daughters had over 4000 foals whereas Buckpassers daughters had approximately 1,300 foals.

For anyone interested in credible and objective evidence of where the genomic variants relevant to differences in best racing distance within the TB are, see the Manhattan plot below covering the 31 autosomes and the X chromosome (#32). Clearly, the major genetic factors in the speed/stamina equation are not on the X.

stancaris wrote:In reference to appearances in the X passion position of Kentucky Derby winners over the last 30 years I compiled data for Buckpasser and Mr. Prospector. Here are my results:

Buckpasser in the X passing position of Ky Derby winners 1987-2016

7 Derby winners
11 Derby place finishers
Total 18 appearances

Mr. Prospecctor in the X passing position of Ky Derby winners 1987-2016
1 Derby winner
3 Derby place finishers
Total 4 appearances.

The score is 18 to 4 in favor of Buckpasser. One would expect more appearances than a meager four from Mr. Prospector in that position since he led the broodmare sire list 8 or 9 times. My conclusion-- Buckpasser in the X bestows stamina whereas Mr. Prospector in the X does not.

Hi Stan,

I think you have certainly made your point, and we're all quite aware that Buckpasser on tbe bottom of the pedigree is a good thing and most race horse people will consider that it might stretch the distance out a bit to have Buckpasser on the bottom side or the sire's bottom side. Your denigrators and detractors are put to shame.

The OP's conclusion as stated in the initial post is disproven by genome-based evidence and it's been a matter of years since the OP was made aware of that fact. The criticism offered has been true, fair, and deserved.

The facts on the ground are that Buckpasser in the bottom of the pedigree lends to improved racing distance. Plain and simple, somewhere in the billions of dna there is something that gets passed on that helps descendents get a little extra distance. Not always but often enough. Nameless trolls ganging up on Stan on the topic is just shameful.

I posted this link to the X-Factor thread:

In it the author states:

Buckpasser is easily the most influential thoroughbred sire in today's pedigrees when attached to the female line.

The web site is: http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/
You have to scroll down a bit to see the table he created of the Top 100 Broodmare Sires of the 4th dam of North American runners racing in 2016

aethervox

aethervox wrote:I posted this link to the X-Factor thread:

In it the author states:

Buckpasser is easily the most influential thoroughbred sire in today's pedigrees when attached to the female line.

The web site is: http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/
You have to scroll down a bit to see the table he created of the Top 100 Broodmare Sires of the 4th dam of North American runners racing in 2016

aethervox

Unfortunately, the site is down now.

vineyridge wrote:

aethervox wrote:I posted this link to the X-Factor thread:

In it the author states:

Buckpasser is easily the most influential thoroughbred sire in today's pedigrees when attached to the female line.

The web site is: http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/
You have to scroll down a bit to see the table he created of the Top 100 Broodmare Sires of the 4th dam of North American runners racing in 2016

aethervox

Unfortunately, the site is down now.

See: http://www.thematchmaker.ca/

...but even before GWS's ISP stopped offering web space to their clients the most recent version of the linked page no longer included the analysis of who appears and how frequently as 4th damsire. Can't find it the on the other/new site either.

Now I don't have the time or wherewithal to study genetics. But is it possible that:

- Something genetic is making it evident that Buckpasser passes superior characteristics through genetics, through female offspring
- That it's not necessarily the X itself, but perhaps a combination pattern in other genes that happens to be 'sustained' so as to be more probably through a generation to the daughter's colt or filly
- That something genetic may (semi-consistent) emerge (above probability norms) from a subsequent generation that was not dominant in the first generation after the BM sire

Just trying to square what is obvious in BPs superior performance as bm sire that doesn't rely on the X or a X factor.

Who do y'all think might be this decades Buckpasser?

jm

Joltman wrote:Now I don't have the time or wherewithal to study genetics. But is it possible that:

- Something genetic is making it evident that Buckpasser passes superior characteristics through genetics, through female offspring
- That it's not necessarily the X itself, but perhaps a combination pattern in other genes that happens to be 'sustained' so as to be more probably through a generation to the daughter's colt or filly
- That something genetic may (semi-consistent) emerge (above probability norms) from a subsequent generation that was not dominant in the first generation after the BM sire

Just trying to square what is obvious in BPs superior performance as bm sire that doesn't rely on the X or a X factor.

Who do y'all think might be this decades Buckpasser?

jm

There is so much that we don't know about genetics, epigenetics, and all the stuff in between the genes that trying to speculate on why Buckpasser is so great through his daughters is like throwing darts blindfolded.

vineyridge wrote:There is so much that we don't know about genetics, epigenetics, and all the stuff in between the genes that trying to speculate on why Buckpasser is so great through his daughters is like throwing darts blindfolded.

Viney, we're long past complete ignorance about the 'stuff in between the genes' and ten years out from the sequencing of the equine genome, most of which is invariant (typical of most species). For what variation that is there, equine SNP chips are available to identify which variant is present. They're routinely used for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) designed to identify variants that have significant correlation w/ diseases, performance traits, et al.

It's unlikely that any single variant accounts for 100% of the genetic component in the 'equation' that equals Buckpasser's distribution in contemporary pedigrees. One particular variant on the X chromosome is a potential contributing factor but it doesn't have as strong a correlation with elite performance as some other variants on the autosomes (chromosomes 1-31) and, btw, it has nothing to do with heart size/function.