odd race.
Noble court looked so good to me breezing I had to go back and do a double take and see who he was. throw out his races across town, he won his last over the downhill and he's better at it. He looked REALLLLLLLLY good and coming from someone who doesn't put that much stock in how they look in the morning, to make me do a double take you have to be pretty damn impressive.
there are too many good horses in this race so I"m going to have to give preference to horses that have won over tthis downhill before. as much as i hate to leave Lord Shanakill off the list i ahve to. that downhill turf co urse is tricky with the go over the main surface, etc.
so that leaves us with the above horse, california flag, get funky, gotta have her, desert code
the mig himself is worth a win ticket on the downhill course. you just dont' not bet the mig. i dotn' give a damn if he's on a mule. he plays that course like a fiddle.
gotta have her's last race was quite possibly the best prep i've seen from any of these horses, and at 15 to 1... hell why not.
california flag is too fast for his own good and this race he will be cooked by the time they hit the stretch.
I'm just not that impressed with get funky
I'm going for the gold in this race lol
Win = Desert code/gotta have her
Place= Desert code/gotta have her/get funky
show-desert code/gotta have her / get funky / california flag/canidan ballet/ Diamondrella
my breeders cup turf sprint analysis
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
my breeders cup turf sprint analysis
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
Re: my breeders cup turf sprint analysis
hi bdw0617
The transition from SA's downhill course onto the dirt doesn't seem (based on my observations anyway) to have much (if any) affect on horses that are behind one or more others as they approach the transition. Seems clear to me, an obstructed view is (for all intents and purposes) a benefit to runners as they approach the turf to dirt transition.
I believe that whether or not a horse's view is obstructed or unobstructed (as it approaches the transition from turf to dirt) is often the difference maker re whether or not it will balk, hop, holdback, carry itself wide (whatever)...or not.
I's likely a valuable benefit too if a downhill runner has an experienced/savy SA regular on its back with plenty of experience on the unique downhill course. Think about it, it's not only the turf to dirt transition that has to be dealt with but also the unique downhill grade(s) and a couple of sloping turns (right then left) that experienced SA regulars may be better prepared to negotiate...than those less experienced at SA.
Respectfully
bdw0617 wrote:... I"m going to have to give preference to horses that have won over tthis downhill before. as much as i hate to leave Lord Shanakill off the list i ahve to. that downhill turf course is tricky with the go over the main surface, etc. ...
The transition from SA's downhill course onto the dirt doesn't seem (based on my observations anyway) to have much (if any) affect on horses that are behind one or more others as they approach the transition. Seems clear to me, an obstructed view is (for all intents and purposes) a benefit to runners as they approach the turf to dirt transition.
I believe that whether or not a horse's view is obstructed or unobstructed (as it approaches the transition from turf to dirt) is often the difference maker re whether or not it will balk, hop, holdback, carry itself wide (whatever)...or not.
I's likely a valuable benefit too if a downhill runner has an experienced/savy SA regular on its back with plenty of experience on the unique downhill course. Think about it, it's not only the turf to dirt transition that has to be dealt with but also the unique downhill grade(s) and a couple of sloping turns (right then left) that experienced SA regulars may be better prepared to negotiate...than those less experienced at SA.
Respectfully
-
wangkw
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 969
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:48 am
- Location: Singapore -- Small, Solid Island In Dictatorship
Betting every race ? I wont do that with my money for sure.
Last edited by wangkw on Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
-
wangkw
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 969
- Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:48 am
- Location: Singapore -- Small, Solid Island In Dictatorship
Cal Flag should be kept out...let alone at 7-2..in my view..Noble Court and Canonball both have good finish in big stakes
...good thing is..there is a suspicious absence of hype on both...Canonball was a neck 2nd vs 7th Strike The Deal in
Golden Jubilee (field 14)..and it puzzles me Kiarin Fallon will saddle the later..but cant say..its odds is a modest 15-1..so
market has not ruled him out...I will.
Diamondrella 2nd favorite..2 G1 $400,000 prizemoney events victor..prefer this lady to Cal Flag if I must take either one.
Dont think I will involve her on my ticket.
...good thing is..there is a suspicious absence of hype on both...Canonball was a neck 2nd vs 7th Strike The Deal in
Golden Jubilee (field 14)..and it puzzles me Kiarin Fallon will saddle the later..but cant say..its odds is a modest 15-1..so
market has not ruled him out...I will.
Diamondrella 2nd favorite..2 G1 $400,000 prizemoney events victor..prefer this lady to Cal Flag if I must take either one.
Dont think I will involve her on my ticket.
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
Personally think Lord Shanakill will run a big race, the trainer seems high on him and he had some good form in England 2nd in last years Dewhurst & 3rd in the St James Palace stakes just over 1L behind Mastercratsman. and then won a G1 over a mile in France.
He is by Speightstown and I don't think the drop back in trip will be too much of a problem, he has Jim Crowley on board and he is a top jock in my opinion a former Jumps jockey who is as strong as an ox in a finish I just hope he doesn't get too far back too early as I expect him to be tanking along at the finish.
He is by Speightstown and I don't think the drop back in trip will be too much of a problem, he has Jim Crowley on board and he is a top jock in my opinion a former Jumps jockey who is as strong as an ox in a finish I just hope he doesn't get too far back too early as I expect him to be tanking along at the finish.
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
FOS,
this was easily the hardest race for me to handicap. the only way I could put togehter a ticket and it not be a 300 dolalr ticket was to take some type of stance. so I had to come pu wtih something.
and not so much the horses, but the jockeys. jockies who haven't ran over this are at a signifanct disadtantage
this was easily the hardest race for me to handicap. the only way I could put togehter a ticket and it not be a 300 dolalr ticket was to take some type of stance. so I had to come pu wtih something.
and not so much the horses, but the jockeys. jockies who haven't ran over this are at a signifanct disadtantage
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein