my breeders cup turf sprint analysis

bdw0617

odd race.

Noble court looked so good to me breezing I had to go back and do a double take and see who he was. throw out his races across town, he won his last over the downhill and he's better at it. He looked REALLLLLLLLY good and coming from someone who doesn't put that much stock in how they look in the morning, to make me do a double take you have to be pretty damn impressive.

there are too many good horses in this race so I"m going to have to give preference to horses that have won over tthis downhill before. as much as i hate to leave Lord Shanakill off the list i ahve to. that downhill turf co urse is tricky with the go over the main surface, etc.

so that leaves us with the above horse, california flag, get funky, gotta have her, desert code

the mig himself is worth a win ticket on the downhill course. you just dont' not bet the mig. i dotn' give a damn if he's on a mule. he plays that course like a fiddle.

gotta have her's last race was quite possibly the best prep i've seen from any of these horses, and at 15 to 1... hell why not.

california flag is too fast for his own good and this race he will be cooked by the time they hit the stretch.

I'm just not that impressed with get funky

I'm going for the gold in this race lol

Win = Desert code/gotta have her
Place= Desert code/gotta have her/get funky
show-desert code/gotta have her / get funky / california flag/canidan ballet/ Diamondrella
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“We also often add to our pain and suffering by being overly sensitive, over-reacting to minor things, and sometimes taking things too personally.”

Tenzin Gyatso

FOS · Horse of the Year Joined: 19 Sep 2004 Posts: 2582

hi bdw0617

UmmYeah · Starters Handicap Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 584

Don't count out California Flag so quickly. He LOVES that hillside course, he's at peak form, and I think they learned a lot from letting him set those suicidal splits last year.

wangkw · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:54 pm Post subject:

Betting every race ? I wont do that with my money for sure.

Laughing

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Justice Is Not Man-Made But It Binds All Mankind

wangkw · Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:38 am Post subject:

Cal Flag should be kept out...let alone at 7-2..in my view..Noble Court and Canonball both have good finish in big stakes
...good thing is..there is a suspicious absence of hype on both...Canonball was a neck 2nd vs 7th Strike The Deal in
Golden Jubilee (field 14)..and it puzzles me Kiarin Fallon will saddle the later..but cant say..its odds is a modest 15-1..so
market has not ruled him out...I will.

Diamondrella 2nd favorite..2 G1 $400,000 prizemoney events victor..prefer this lady to Cal Flag if I must take either one.

Dont think I will involve her on my ticket.
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Justice Is Not Man-Made But It Binds All Mankind

dublino · Maiden Special Weight Joined: 23 Mar 2008 Posts: 103

Personally think Lord Shanakill will run a big race, the trainer seems high on him and he had some good form in England 2nd in last years Dewhurst & 3rd in the St James Palace stakes just over 1L behind Mastercratsman. and then won a G1 over a mile in France.

He is by Speightstown and I don't think the drop back in trip will be too much of a problem, he has Jim Crowley on board and he is a top jock in my opinion a former Jumps jockey who is as strong as an ox in a finish I just hope he doesn't get too far back too early as I expect him to be tanking along at the finish.

bdw0617 · Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:05 pm Post subject:

FOS,

this was easily the hardest race for me to handicap. the only way I could put togehter a ticket and it not be a 300 dolalr ticket was to take some type of stance. so I had to come pu wtih something.

and not so much the horses, but the jockeys. jockies who haven't ran over this are at a signifanct disadtantage
_________________
“We also often add to our pain and suffering by being overly sensitive, over-reacting to minor things, and sometimes taking things too personally.”

Tenzin Gyatso