Maiden Special Weight
Joined: 27 Aug 2008
|Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:41 am Post subject: Kty Derby angles
|Having followed thoroughbred horse racing since the '70s, I've used a number of different handicapping methods over the years. I recall reading a book on the Breeders' Cup (Crushing The Cup) several years ago that used angles to help narrow the field. In that vein, I've looked back through my Derby Racing Forms, and compiled a small database. This covers 439 starters over the past 25 years. Here’s an interesting stat (IMO) from that data:
Runners entering the Derby off a 1st or 2nd place finish at odds under 3-1 have won 14 times (of 125 starters) for 11.2% win pct.
On the other end of the spectrum, those who either finished worse than 4th OR went off at odds of 14-1 and higher were 0 for 107. This group includes longshot prep winners, or - as more commonly seen - longshot closers who finish underneath in the exotics in their final prep.
Those in neither category were 11 of 207, for a 5.3% win pct.
just thought this was interesting ...
Of course, recent history suggests that anything can happen (Giacomo, Mine That Bird), so I'd hesitate to rely on long term statistics as far as the Derby is concerned.
If you have any favorite angles you like to use for handicapping the Kty Derby, pls share them here!