TRUE and E Nicks

Tappiano · Grade III Winner Joined: 20 Jan 2007 Posts: 1095

Yes, I understand what you are saying, but I guess I'm not communicating my point clearly enough.

If breeders rely on these to help guide them towards a particular stallion and it shows a D it's a bit misleading simply because the sample is too small. The absence of Mr. Prospector blood in Europe and the infusion of bloodlines that we do not have here is obviously going to affect the result, but what it does indirectly is make it a harder sell if a horse is imported TO this country.

We are at a point where we could desperately use some new bloodlines but if products like this are incomplete because of a lack of relevant sample data, it's going to produce a result that's inaccurate.

These products are not the be all and end all, but if the data is not complete than perhaps it should stipulate it?

Barcaldine · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:20 pm Post subject:

Im glad to see you're beginning to catch on to E-tricks and Untrue-Tricks, Tappiano.

Why dont you ask about the quality and quantity of the stakes winners studied?

brogers · Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:52 am Post subject:

Barcaldine · Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:30 pm Post subject:

Byron Rogers' assumptions on many counts explains why most professional horsemen snicker at him, Alan Porter, Sid Fernando, Jack Werk and their products:

The assumption that the pedigrees of stakes winners in minor races should help serve as the basis for making decisions by breeders interested in important horses is bogus.

So is the assumption for including "stakes winners'' in minor countries, and in countries where racing conditions---and class---has no relevance in the U.S.

And the assumption that horses which have placed in, but not won, Graded races in the U.S. should be excluded from study.

Let's not forget the assumption that sire line nicks with dams' relations other than their sire lines are inconsequential in deriving the coveted letter grades. It apparently doesnt concern them that of 30 ancestors in each horse's first four generations only two of them are "studied."

And what about their indefensible assumption that---even though their sample sizes of relevant horses is pathetically small---historical pairings will produce the same outcomes in the future? Someone should have told them about BOLD RULER and NASCO.

Of course, the Nicksters' biggest assumption that enough naive horse owners will actually pay (or at least pay attention to) their ill-conceived and misleading conclusions may be the only supportable assumption they make.

Tappiano · Grade III Winner Joined: 20 Jan 2007 Posts: 1095

Okay, so let me ask you this one last question. I asked it in another thread but never got an answer.

Hypothetically speaking if I wanted to send my mare, Another G to Posse it's a fantastic match because it says Silver Deputy loves Forty Niner so it gives Kodiak Kowboy as the example. Well, if I do a hypo on KK to Another G it gives the same rating and cites Kodiak Kowboy as the best example of the cross. The application does not factor in TWO crosses of Forty Niner which is present in the second hypo. Now, if there had already been some kind of Nick established when inbreeding 3 x 4 to Forty Niner where would I ever see it? This is where there is, IMHO, a narrow lens because what takes priority, the most stakes winners, the biggest sample?

I could design my own database to do what you all did so I'm not going to knock what you've put together because I know what goes into it, but I guess I don't see as much value in the tool as you all do.

brogers · Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:53 pm Post subject:

Barcaldine · Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 10:25 pm Post subject:

"return to the sire the best blood of his dam" is attributed to Col. E. R. Bradley, not Gentry. He bred BLUE LARKSPUR, among others, using this principle.

NORTHSTAR1 · Yearling Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 54

interesting discussion on the nicks thing but i think there are many sure fire matings that have proven to be spectacular failures and there are a lot of spectacular successes that have been in the mold of big brown pin cushions ----there is an interesting saying in the mining industry that says gold mines are where you find them ----

Pan Zareta · Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:31 am Post subject:

Tappiano · Grade III Winner Joined: 20 Jan 2007 Posts: 1095

NORTHSTAR1 · Yearling Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 54

the cross of storm cat on daughters of rahy has produced 4 stallions ---two pairs od full brothers who are in turn 3/4 to each other
giants causeway/ freud ------- after market/courageous cat

true nicked each with my mare ----
gc with mr p----A
freud with mr p-----C+

storm cat with carson city ----C
storm cat with carson city-----C

the matching of sire lines is inconsistent and the rating from full brothers A vs C+ probably says the females have a lot to say about the mating potential as i suspect GC has had better mares than FREUD

the FREUD/ GC choice is getting easier ---offspring of 10,000 dollar freud earned 30,242 dollars per starter while 85,000 GC earned 24,493

brogers · Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:31 pm Post subject:

Northstar1

Actually I believe this shows the strength of TrueNicks.

Freud has 98 foals of racing age out of Mr Prospector line mares. He has 6 SW. Freud, bred to all other broodmare sires except Mr Prospector line mares has produced 254 foals and 22 SW. He does better with mares NOT by Mr Prospector line stallions.

Giant's Causeway Has 454 foals of racing ae out of Mr Prospector line mares for 41 stakes winners. Giants Causeway as 1012 foals out of all other broodmare sires for 61 SW. He does really well with Mr P mares.

Freud and Giants Causeway react differently to Mr Prospector line mares, but that is genetics for you. Sadlers wells was dynamite with Mill Reef line mares but his full brother Fairy King was not so it is not like this is unusual. The important thing is that it needs to be acurately represented which it is with TrueNicks.
_________________
Byron Rogers
Performance Genetics
www.performancegenetics.com

NORTHSTAR1 · Yearling Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 54

MR ROGERS
i beg to differ ---i think it actually shows the major fault with stallion to stallion nicks ---they completely ignore 50% of the gene pool presented to a sire line ----they give no weight whatever to the female families ---of course to get to that influence one would have to drill a little deeper and find out what if any are the common characterisics in the female families in the stakes winners ----what elements are present in the winners and whats missing from the non stakes winners ------zenyatta --- pretty good horse has a great many lines(from the three streams under the stallion pedigree) leading back to pocahontas in what i call direct line----- female -female-female etc or female- male -female ----no female male -male which of course is a stop sign for some gene transmission ----i would even take it one step further and say female families have affinities ---for example 6e / 4m mix ----more study is needed in this area.

brogers · Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:51 pm Post subject:

Barcaldine · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:33 pm Post subject:

Did anyone else catch the new E-Nicks ad promoting it's $595 "enrollment fee" for stallions?

To be eligible for an E-Nicks recommendation a stallion must be enrolled. For mare owners this means that the only stallions that E-nicks will recommend are the ones whose owners paid to play.

So, even though 'better nicking' stallions may be available for a breeder's mare, they will not be promoted by the Werk Company.

To my knowledge, all of the Nicksters operate their businesses in the same manner.