Raise A Native Sire Line

DDT · Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 6:16 pm Post subject:

Stan

I do not need a sire line definition from you. Of course Raise a Native is a son of Native Dancer, however, he is directly in the line for 17 of those KD winners and should get the credit, or maybe it should be Fappiano that gets more credit than Mr. Prospector, who cares. If Rommy says it is the Native Dancer line he is not wrong, but then I guess it is because why would it not be Polynesian? One would not be wrong saying it that way either, however, I believe one should use the youngest common sire to all of them.

DDT

Jorge · Moderator Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 5479

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

DDT and ALL: The following data may be helpful in handicapping the Triple Crown events. This data concerns the last 24 years from 1988-2011 and lists the number of Raise A Native and Northern Dancer sire line winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in that period.

RAN sire line Derby winners---------- 13
Northern Dancer sire line winners ----4

RAN sire line Preakness winners------11
ND sire line Preakness winners---------8

RAN sire line Belmont winners --------15
ND sire line Belmont winners-----------3

Totals------RAN------39
Totals-------ND------ 15

One can see by the above data that the RAN sire line winners more than double the ND sire line winners of the three Triple Crown events.

DDT: Regarding sire line naming I proposed the question to Rommy and am waiting for a reply.

DDT · Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 7:33 pm Post subject:

Stan

I never said the Raise a Native sire line did not produce classic winners, you are using those three annual races as some kind of proof that the RAN and in particular the Mr. Prospector sire line is dominant over the Northern Dancer sire line, I disagree with that assessment. And I told you I do not care what Rommy says, and I absolutely do not care what you have to say.

DDT

xfactor fan · Breeder's Cup Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 2186

This is one of those lumper vs splitter arguments. Common in biology, folks can argue endlessly over what to include in the "species" Lumpers go for broad limits, splitters want to make endless small divisions.

Where do you guys want to draw the line? Sire lines going back 4 generations? 5, 6? And what about tracking the mtDNA? This probably has more impact on the distance races than the Y chromosome itself.

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

Now your getting all bent out of shape. The stats I presented clearly show that the Ran sire line is best in the Triple crown races. When handicapping those three races it makes sense to look closely at contenders that carry that line.

DDT · Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:50 am Post subject:

Stan

I apologize for getting snippy, I took a look at the top 10 sires for 2011 for individual states and they included Kentucky, California, Louisiana, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Texas, Oaklahoma and Washington. The Raise a Native sire line had 31 representatives in the top 10 and Northern Dancer had 36. I am basing my conclusion and opinion on the fact that Northern Dancer is represented by the largest number of stallions on those sire lists. When one looks at leading sires from 1977 onward, Northern Dancer is represented by 12 and Raise a Native by 11, pretty even. After all, it is just my opinion and I could be wrong.

DDT

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

X Factor Fan:

You make a good point about mt-DNA as being important for distance racing. Interestingly, in 16 of the last 22 years the tail female line of Derby winners traced to the conduit mare, Doxa four times: SupHer Saver, Smarty Jones, Go for Gin and Sea Hero. No other conduit mare appears more than once in the last 22 years.

This year the Doxas that seem to be making some noise are Castaway, In the Beat, Heavy Breathing, Sabercat, and Thunder Mocassin.

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

What I meant to say in my post directly above was that in 16 of the last 22 years the Derby winner traced to one of the conduit mares in tail female that I found to be influential conduits. In 4 of the above 22 years Doxa was the mare in tail female of the Derby winners I listed above. At any rate, Doxa is the most influential of all conduit mares with regards to generating Derby winners (in the tail female line).

Bast · Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: confusion abounds

diomed · Grade III Winner Joined: 04 Oct 2004 Posts: 1107

Bast · Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: mt-DNA

aethervox · Allowance Winner Joined: 15 Mar 2008 Posts: 336

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

Doxa is a conduit mare which was defined by William Lathrop as the mare born closest to 1900 but not before. So, in using conduit mares, Bill Lathrop traces the tail female descendants of Doxa who was born in 1901.

stancaris · Allowance Winner Joined: 16 Sep 2004 Posts: 427

Bast: Of course, looking at all the data would make for a better body of evidence to support any claim that Doxa was clearly the best of all conduit mares and horses who had Doxa in tail female are actually outperforming their opportunities. I can tell you one thing for sure and that is that the total percentage of starters in the Derby who trace in tail female to Doxa is no where near the percent of winners over the last 20 years which is 4 of the last 20 or 20% Derby winners had Doxa in tail female.

It is a known fact that most of the horses that trace to Doxa in tail female also carry La Troienne her tail female descendent born in 1926 and probably one of the greatest influential mares in North America.

When I cashed in on the Doxa exacta in 2010 comprised of Super Saver who traces to La Troienne by way of Doxa and Ice Box who traces to Doxa but has no strains of La Troienne in tail female , I did not separate the two branches of the family.