does anyone have a derby horse yet?

[jagger]

Thanks, Zinn21.

I made quite a few bets that took several methods of handicapping into consideration, including my own. I lost all but one of them....an exacta with Bodemeister and I'll Have Another. I have Bill from WA to thank for that as I don't imagine I would have used him had it not been for Bill's assessments. This one MORE than paid for all the other bets

[Bill from WA]

I set aside $500 every year to wager on this race. I bet $200 to win on Went The Day Well (had the same wager on Animal Kingdom last year) hoping for another big pay day. I think that with a little better racing luck he would have had a real chance to win. Several horses, who were compromised early on, may have changed the order of the top four, but that's the nature of this race. I put a $50 win bet on I'll have Another (great pedigree for the distance) as a saver. I blew $250 on the exotics by leaving Bodemeister out (he ran a superb race). I didn't think he had the best pedigree for the distance as compared to some of the others. Obviously I (and my evaluation system) was wrong. No way of measuring heart. I netted about $325 on the race. I'm very pleased that some of you did well, and that I may have helped. On to the Preakness, where an entirely different handicapping approach is in order.
Good luck.

Bill
_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

[jagger]

How can you not like/love Bill!!!

Is it really that much different than handicapping the Derby, Bill? I can see where the Belmont would be different but the Preakness?

[bdw0617]

[Bill from WA]

I think the Preakness is (in a way) different from the Derby in that in the Derby you are trying to project what the runners will do at a distance (in my case, based on an aptitudinal analysis of their pedigrees) that none of them had ever tried. Depending on who runs, the ability to get the distance (or not) has already been established. There will be new shooters to assess, but many of the runners have already established themselves. I will use pedigree along with an analysis of their performance in the Derby and the running styles of the entrants. Different track, different adaptations toward that particular surface. Now, the Belmont will be another race that I can use pedigree to cull the field somewhat.

Bill
_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

[Joltman]

Bodemeister carried the burn out pace farther than anyone expected, but whether he is beaten by a length or 15 - too fast, too fast, too fast.

Bodemeister wins if he had a deeper bottom - ie. had he raced as a 2yo. Suicidal fractions and no 2yo bottom - that he went as far as he did amazes me.

Union Rags - amazing to finish as he did with horrible trip. If I'm M Matz I've got him in the Preakness with Edgar Prado up. He could cruise with the frontrunners. That he finished 7th after a riding debacle like that is just as amazing as BM IMHO.

Two or three others would have nailed BM with a decent trip - Dullahan, Went the Day Well, etc.

The time under 2:02 was good, considering. A quality field despite whatever the usual naysayers will say (did Beyer weigh in?)

One of the characteristics of the winner that impressed me was his face - very cool, professional. That's the kind that has T Crown possibilities.
_________________
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

[bdw0617]

union rags did not have the best trip on earth but he's fastly becoming the reincarnation of dollar bill. at some point, you have to admit the horse is just getting his butt handed to him. in the BC oh he was so wide he realy was the best horse in the race in the florida derby oh look at that horrible ride look how he was galloping out at the end of the race in the derby i can't believe he had that much traffic trouble and still ran as good as he did.

at some point the horse has to be held accountable for his race record.
_________________
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein

[kimberley mine]

[stancaris]

Joltman: Bodemeister ran much too fast early on with fractions of 45 and change and 109 and change in a 10 furlong route. He did not lose the Derby because of his lack of experience as a 2 year old. He lost the Derby after running ridiculous fractions for the first six furlongs.

[jagger]

Jockey's fault?

[kimberley mine]

[jagger]

Agree, Kimberley mine......which is why experience as a 2 yo is so valuable

[bdw0617]

[kimberley mine]

[Shammy Davis]

I've finally decided on my derby horse!

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER.