Invasor [ARG]

[bdw0617]

[Brigitte]

Holy Invader puts his 3 race winning streak on the line in a Parx allowance on May 19 at a mile&70 for a purse of $47,000.

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PRX051912USA-EQB.html#RACE9

[clh]

The biggest obstacle for these horses is getting the maiden won and then figuring out what their distance preference is (longer I'm thinking ? ), and what type of surface they really like. Like that is rocket science right? But in all honesty, it takes time to figure that out sometime and at least for Fortin it sounds like they know what he likes now, so hopefully they'll keep him going in that direction and on that surface. That isn't to say they can't run shorter (Vader certainly has run long and short) but finding out what their real preference is and then trying to keep to it so they can find their niche is the key in my opinion. I know I'm rambling here, but it is frustrating for me to to know that with a limited book of mares for Invasor that first crop, "I" know he got a good crop of mares, I'm just surprised that he hasn't really gotten some good runners yet. Then again, I'm waiting for these three year olds to hit the tracks running - and I'm worried a bit because so far I haven't seen that happening. Where are all these colts/fillies at?
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

[Brigitte]

CLH: What you say about getting a first win and figuring the horse out is right on for owners with some commitment to their horse. It must be like solving a puzzle, a great result for horse and connections! That's what I'd want, if it were possible. I'm also surprised Invasor hasn't got any stars yet and I've spent time thinking about it.

What I see is that there are different kinds of owners with different goals. Invasor's problem is that in the US the best racing opportunities are for 2 & 3 year olds. So owners want a TC candidate, or indications that they have a stakes horse early in training. Late development isn't something they deal well with. Example: Runnymede bred and owned Galilee. He trained with Michael Matz and raced twice in maiden claimers, last the first time and 6th in a cheaper race. Runnymede dropped him from their stable and probably tried to sell him. He hasn't had a work since. Runnymede wants stakes winners and breeds plenty of candidates every year. American fillies often race a few times at 2 and are bred. Cheechako, owned by Mary Lou Whitney, looked terrific in an MSW fat Churchill, she was a fast closing 2nd. Never been seen since, maybe bred. Invasor's first winner was bred at 2, his second hasn't raced at 3, probably bred. Most of the mares bred to Invasor had short careers. A lot of Invasor's first crop started training, but didn't race. Don't know why. None posted fast works, something trainers and owners love.

Haras al Aquila is a different kind of owner/breeder. They bred Holy Invader and Fortin from mares with South American ancestry. Fortin was nominated to the TC but developed too late. The owner isn't discouraged. No accident that those two are 2/5 of the Invasors that seem headed for stakes races (the others are Five Sixteen and Photon. Vader has already raced in stakes, will again). Expression should have been another, no idea what happened there.

I don't have an answer but I've learned a lot about racing. Invasor is crawling up the stallion list the hard way - without a big money winner. He's moving up because lots his offspring are good, even if no stars yet. It sure would be nice to see one of them mug one of today's hot horses at longer distance.

[Brigitte]

Rawaafed (IRE) is making his 3 yo debut in a Maiden stakes in the UK at 10f on turf. Click on the Timeform Comments box to see what they think about all the runners. The course is really interesting, ends going uphill.

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/170512/Newmarket_%28ROWLEY%29-GB-Nmr/1900

Oceanic Queen returns May 19 in a $12,500 MCL for 3, 4 & 5 (2 are 4 years old) at a mile&70.

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CRC051912USA-EQB.html#RACE1

Her last race was an $8000 mcl at 7f and she jumped a horse that fell.....

I found a colt born in 2010, Dominate Force, in training at Keeneland:

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8879107&registry=T

He's relatively fast, one work was 1/18. He's a full brother to the unraced filly Invasion who had some works at Saratoga last year.

[clh]

I hate to inform everyone but the TC races can only handle so many - the Kentucky Derby will let 20 race, so if your horse doesn't make it in that you give up on him? I know, I know - that is the mindset of a lot of the bigger racing stables but that seems a little, well stupid, to me. Don't even get me started on breeding a filly at 2 - excuse me - I mean, the beginning of her three year old season.

Vader is back at River Downs and should be starting back at things soon. He has enjoyed his time off, have been assured he hasn't gotten too fat with his lay off so hopefully soon we'll see some works from him
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

[Brigitte]

Great to have Vader back! Will he be trying turf?

[Brigitte]

Rawaafed was "Close up, weakened 3f out " and finished 14/15. My interpretation is that he cruised with the best for 7f, but had no kick when the real running started.

http://www.racinguk.com/results/race/70535/1

Light Zabeel is back in action in a Maiden Filly Stakes at Newmaket tomorrow, May 18th at 1 1/2 miles, the turf classic distance. The timeform server isn't responding so here's another, less detailed version of the race - I assume the race is on turf:

https://gg.com/racing/18-may-2012/newmarket-1630

[clh]

Brigitte - Vader has run on turf in the past (at least once if my feable mind serves me correctly) and he didn't "not like it", so I am sure he will be running on both dirt and turf this year until Ivan decides he doesn't like the turf at all. He really likes the mud and slop (as did his half sister Slew's Night Moves), so a yielding turf wouldn't be too terrible for him to run on I wouldn't think. We'll see how he does once he's back at it again. He may have changed his whole style now that he's a grown-up and all manly and studly I'm just hoping he goes back to some of his winning ways. Because, as we all know, winning is so much better than losing
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

[Brigitte]

Light Zabeel is running on the same course as Rawaafed, but the race is longer. Her competition is maiden fillies, some of whom have run at 10f, Light Zabeel ran at 7f and a mile and wasn't closing at the end - her connections seem to be experimenting. Here's the Timeform version of the race, click on Timeform comments to see their opinion of the runners.

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/180512/Newmarket_%28ROWLEY%29-GB-Nmr/1630

Clh - If he loves turf what a Christmas present! He did seem to have a bouncy stride in one video, high action? It would be fun if he beat the Euro-Invasors to a turf win. Could happen.

[Brigitte]

Light Zabeel ran 9th of 13 at Newmarket about 8 lengths behind the winner. She chased the leaders from the start, was 2nd from 9f to after 10f. She weakened after 11f.

9 of 13 says she threw a clunker but 2nd till 10+ f and didn't weaken till 11 f sounds promising. After reading the comments on the other horses I've been doing a slow burn. Sunday quarterback, so what? Here's the race, followed by the rant:

http://www.racinguk.com/results/race/70622/1

The first 5 horses were all kept at or towards the rear and started running between 9 and 10 f. This couldn't have been a surprise to Light Zabeel's jockey or trainer. So why was she ridden to chase the front runners and get mugged when the real running started? Invasor didn't run like that, he was usually not too far back and made his move in the stretch. She could have relaxed in 5th or 6th and moved when the front runners started coming back to her and maybe stolen a march on the closers. We've seen that Invasors that aren't devoid of early speed like to be close early, then they fade. But what's a trainer for? Do trainers have so many horses that they don't work on horse behavior anymore? News flash! Horses can be trained to respond to a rider. If the jockey had no sense of the race hire a better one. Light Zabeel seems like the best of the Euro-Invasors, she likes turf, doesn't deserve a string of bad results. Oh yeah, shorten her to 10 f, that'll do it - no, not necessarily. It's just as likely the front runners will go a bit faster, Light Zabeel will have to run a bit harder to get to 'em and when the running starts she gets mugged again. She needs to relax, says the armchair trainer!a

[clh]

Amen sister! Sometimes I think the trainers just phone it in and the jockeys are on auto-pilot - but again that is coming from another Monday quarterback . Oh if we only control the world of racing .
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

[Brigitte]

The two of us! A new era of racing!

[clh]

Hopefully everyone picked a winner for the Preakness today. My dream of having a homebred in one of the big three is officially dashed:(.
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

[Brigitte]

Holy Invader finished 3d, 6 lengths behind the winner in his allowance. He stalked 3 wide just off the pace, asked to run on the final turn, weakened in the stretch. He was the front runner in his previous wins, this time the 1-2-3 finishers were 1-2-3 the entire race.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PRX051912USA9.pdf

Oceanic Queen didn't do any running at all: "trailed, pulled up".

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CRC051912USA1.pdf

Clh: That's 2 races Oceanic Queen didn't run. After she was a non-participant in her debut the trainer dropped her way down in class. She did race but had to jump a fallen horse. Got a new trainer, who moved her up in class and she didn't run. We've seen this behavior before: Galilee didn't run a step in his debut, responded to a drop in class by making an attempt. Kiha didn't run when she moved up to a starter allowance. You hear of horses that "take care of themselves", do some decide it's hopeless and refuse to try?