Derby Trail 2013 2YOs: Champagne Stakes G I

[Whirlaway]

Maybe this thread will catch on - maybe not, but one thing not doubt for sure, it is gonna be fun.

I'm gonna post the past performances for and a brief history about important races leading up to the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Hopefully I'll learn a fact or two about he history of the race and hopefully some of you handicappers and horseplayers out there will teach us rookies a thing or two about handicappin' .

First race is the Sanford Stakes. Inaugurated in 1913 as the Sanford Memorial Stakes, it was modified to its present name in 1927. The race is named for Stephen Sanford and his son John, Amsterdam, New York businessmen from one of Saratoga's original horse racing families. Their horses first appeared in the Saratoga races in 1880. Stephen Sanford named all his best horses after members of the Mohawk nation. (Wikipedia) The past performances for the 2012 Sanford Stakes can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm - scroll to Pletcher>Sanford.

Synopsis:

Ainslie said it best.

At distances of six furlongs and up, under allowance and stakes conditions, the player often finds too many sound, evenly matched two-year-olds to chose among. Stickouts like Native Dancer turn up too infrequently to make the player's life simple. But when one does, the juvenile stakes are a joy. A Native Dancer, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Graustark, Moccasin, Ruffian, Hail to Reason or Buckpasser pays miserly odds. But who cares? Animals of that kind figure to win big. Any race is playable in which the horse not only figures much the best but, in the manner of two-year-old champions, can be counted on to give it all he's got. The young champ loses now and then, but not enough to throw the player's accounts out of joint.

Looks like we've got one that figures to be much the best in Bern Identity. If he is anything like the character in the movie, he'll be tough to beat. Looks like he knows he is a racehorse and he likes to run - shows a set of textbook works but think maybe that 3fl in 34.2 may be a little fast. Brave Dave brings in an interesting Dosage: DI 11.0 / CD 1.50, pure speed. Pletcher has two live ones here in Rose Junction and 128 and last I've read he has won the past few runnings of this race.

I like the Asmussen trained Special Jo. Drew off in his first, came up third in the Bashford. I like the 5fl work; if Julien can sit tight off what no doubt will be a fast pace, I think he can catch the front speed late.

Special Jo
Bern Identity

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

Next race: Best Pal Stakes, G2, August 5th
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

That Ainslie sure knows how to pick em'.

Bern Identity brushed with a rival a the start then was hustled, raced on the inside while urged along, saved ground on the turn, moved out under left hand urging in upper stretch, switched to a right-handed whip inside the three-sixteenths pole, rallied into the final furlong, gained the lead near the sixteenth-pole and inched clear under continued right hand urging.

Nice ride by Rosie . . . I believe she is the first woman to win the Sanford Stakes.

Interesting Dosage numbers for Bern Identity: DI 2.11 / CD 0.64. The numbers for I'll Have Another: DI 2.11 / 0.50. The average for Derby winners: DI 2.26 / CD 0.49 - the CD is the key. I like this guy and the way he ran that race sittin' tight and patient off the speed and gettin' after em' late. Should he hold together, no doubt we will see him near the top of the Experimental Free Handicap come next year, likely a Dual Qualifier. I thought the Pletcher trained Onetwentyeight finished well and should improve next time out. Lookin' for him to turn the tables should both of em' go in the Hopeful Stakes. I liked Special Jo in this one and he was sittin' sweet first part of the race, but he just wasn't special and weakened in the stretch. Maybe I'll get em' next time come the Best Pal Stakes.

The Bloodhorse story and video replay of the Sanford Stakes can be found here: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71469/bern-identity-fires-late-to-capture-sanford

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[dublino]

[Whirlaway]

[TJ]

Hi Whirl,
Rosie will prove to be a great rider...stats aren't everything and you have to look outside the box for true talent in this business. She's only been riding for 7 years. She's had 4 serious injuries during that span of time and just recently broke into the top echelon of race meets. It was her ability that brought her there and into the cream of the crop of horse racing's elite. What she's accomplished, in this short period of time, is very impressive to say the least.
There is one other thing that you might want to add to this post....it seems you forgot about the ladies. Especially in light of recent events and having 2 ladies back to back as horse of the year....you should keep your eyes on the 2YO filly races as well as just the colts.....after all it wouldn't be the first time a 3YO filly won the roses. TJ

[Whirlaway]

TJ,

Nice post.

I wish Rosie all the best . . . and then some. I have always been impressed with her as a person and as a rider and I look forward to watching her beat the boys.

~

I've got a hankerin' I'm likin' your idea to include the fillies along this 2013 Trail. I've always paid strict attention to the colts . . . thinkin' I should, as you've written, "look outside the box" and take the time to learn more about the fillies and the races they run. Not only will I learn somethin' new, including the fillies will make it that much more fun and exciting!

Thanks for the suggestion.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
Nothin' like the Oaks Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

The second race is the Best Pal Stakes, an American thoroughbred horse race held annually at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California. The race is open to horses, age two, that are willing to race six and one-half furlongs on Polytrack. A Grade II event, it carries a purse of $150,000.

Inaugurated in 1967 as the Balboa Stakes, it was raced on turf and open to horses age three and up. For 1967 only, the race was run in two divisions. It was not run again until 1972 when it was changed to an event for two-year-olds. For 1995 the race was renamed to honor Best Pal, a California-born racehorse who won the Balboa Stakes in 1990 and whose career earnings totaled more than $5.6 million for his owner-breeder, Golden Eagle Farm.

Since inception the race has been contested at various distances and surfaces:

1⅛ miles : 1967 (on turf)
7.5 furlongs : 1972-1973 (on turf)
1 mile : 1974-1985 (on dirt)
7 furlongs : 1986-1992 (on dirt)
6.5 furlongs : 1993-2006 (on dirt)
6.5 furlongs : 2007-present (on Polytrack)
(Wikipedia)

Early Synopsis:

The early past performances for the Best Pal Stakes can be found here: http://www.dmtc.com/horsemen/noms/ Scroll to Best Pal Stakes > PPs. Another nice one, this one on the synthetic surface. I find it difficult to and avoid playing races on the plastic stuff. I've seen em' lose traction and "slip", particularly coming out of the gate and when trying to dig in deep stretch - horses just can't "get a hold" of the surface. Here is what Steve Davidowitz writes about the Del Mar racing surface in his book, Betting Thoroughbreds For the 21st Century in the chapter Synthetic-Track Handicapping:

For one thing, during morning hours, Del Mar seemed perfectly normal, as hundreds of horses turned in the typically fast clockings that had been seen for decades at all Southern California tracks. But once the racing began, the surface slowed down to such an extent that final times were off by three, four, and five seconds . . . In 2008, Del Mar and Polytrack officials decided to add some water to the racing surface a few times each week and the result was a smoother, faster, truer racing surface that produced relatively formful results. So long as Del Mar continues to water this track, the tendencies of 2008 should continue in 2009 and beyond . . . The faster better maintained 2008 Del Mar surface favored midpack closers and deep closers through much of the meet at all distances. There were some front running winners, of course, more often in route races when the pace was soft, but more horses came from off thepace during this meet than any Southern California race meet in many years.

Once again, Ainslie said it best over 40 years ago and I've got to repeat it to myself so that it sinks into my thick skull:

At distances of six furlongs and up, under allowance and stakes conditions, the player often finds too many sound, evenly matched two-year-olds to chose among. Stickouts like Native Dancer turn up too infrequently to make the player's life simple. But when one does, the juvenile stakes are a joy. A Native Dancer, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Graustark, Moccasin, Ruffian, Hail to Reason or Buckpasser pays miserly odds. But who cares? Animals of that kind figure to win big. Any race is playable in which the horse not only figures much the best but, in the manner of two-year-old champions, can be counted on to give it all he's got. The young champ loses now and then, but not enough to throw the player's accounts out of joint.

I just need to follow his advice! Looks like we have a "stickout" in Scherer Magic. Looks like a racehoss' to me. Claimed by Gary Barber for 50K (nice!) in a maiden claimer that he won by seven lengths, he came right back and spanked em' in the G III Hollywood Juvenile Cup - nice piece of work by the trainer John Sadler here. Roman gave him a Performance Figure of -3. His running style suits the surface requirements written about by Davidowitz and he shows a nice 4fl work - looks like Sadler will have him ready. Interesting Dosage numbers for Scherer Magic: DI 2.11 / CD 0.71. Deja Vu and once again, there is that Dosage Index of 2.11 we saw with Bern Identity but a little higher CD. He possesses the same Dosage as Dual Classic Winner Afleet Alex: DP = 5-0-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71. No doubt Scherer Magic he is gonna be tough to beat but I'm a lookin' at Moreno . . .

Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

Nice article in the Bloodhorse magazine regarding the Best Pal Stakes this weekend. John Sadler, the trainer of Scherer Magic had this to say regarding the youngster . . . "With young horses two or three races into a career you don't really know exactly how far or how good they're going to get but he hasn't shown me anything yet, any limitations on his distance or his ability. So we're excited about going out there for number three and see if he can do it again." The full article can be found here: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71757/best-pal-next-for-surprising-scherer-magic

Couple of nice fillies goin' in this one, gonna give the boys a run for the money! Now we're talkin' a hoss' race! Lookin' forward to this one as it should be a fun one to watch; interested in seein' the past performances and how the track is playin'. The past performances can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Scroll down to Doug Oneill>Best Pal Stakes.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

Best Pal Stakes

Synopsis:

Looks like the track Superintendent has the surface where it should be. May change in the next day or so, but all one can ask is for an even playing field and looks like track personnel has the Polytrack surface dialed in.

Scherer Magic has the filly Miss Empire to the inside and the filly Heir Kitty to the outside. Heir Kitty gets 6fl on grass in 1:10.3 (nice) and shows textbook works – she is right there at the 5fl marker in 58.3 and won it in a hand ride. Her Dosage indicates she is a turf router, but she possesses Dominant Classicity and that gives her versatility. Miller had her in the right spot first time out on the grass, now he is gonna try her on the synthetic against the boys - gutsy move and nice work by the trainer here w/this filly. She has the fastest time for the distance, but speed ain’t everything. Lookin’ to see if she will fight or fold goin’ in there against the boys.

The past performance pattern for Miss Empire is a bit perplexing. I think the Race Rating (RR) and Class Rating (CR) are helpful here. If one trusts either or both, she fits. She was much the best in the Cinderella, but that race appears to have taken something out of her - and it was only five and a half furlongs. Her works are a bit softer when compared to Heir Kitty, maybe a negative indicator. It’ll be interesting to see if she can bounce back.

Scherer Magic is no doubt the class of the race and is in top condition - his last work is faster than most of em' race. Chart for the Hollywood Juvenile Championship says “won clear under some left hand urging.” I don't believe he has felt the whip. He shows all the markers of a nice one - race ready and tractable possessing early speed, late drive and a good bit of determination. If the last race didn't knock him off form similar to Amarish, and that happens with these fashion breds, Ainslie says he’ll be tough to beat.

O'Neill and Reddam have teamed up again and have a nice one in here with Know More. He hit the ground running, shows textbook gate workouts and gets the top jock, but I think a bit ambitious first time out against this group. We'll see if they know more than the rest of us. Barba Alexis has Heir of Storm ready with those blistering works, this one should be tough. Moreno bothers me . . . interesting breeding and a troubled start. He goes from post position ten to post position three and shows two nice works. I’d like to see him win it.

Should be a fun race to watch with them fillies in there - lookin' forward to the Best Pal Stakes.

Scherer Magic
Moreno

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

First timer Know More wins the Best Pal Stakes!

Know More stalked four wide then three deep on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch, lugged in a bit in midstretch but rallied under left handed urging to get up late.

Nice . . . looks like O'Neill and Reddam team up again.

How was one to think they would Know More than the rest of us? I should have known Takin' a look back at the past performances which sometimes can be difficult, he showed a nice set of works; dam had three winners from four starters and one stakes winner and was purchased for $ 210k. I think the 210k and the workouts may have pointed the way here and I'll give those two pieces of information a better look next time out but those two pieces of info - insufficient data to pick him as the winner - difficult to believe Know More would be able to get this group first time out in a graded stakes. Hoss racin', gotta and still love it. Will I Know More next time out ? Think so. Nice piece of work by the trainer here and a nice bit of ridin' by the jockey Gomez who said of his mount, " It takes a special kind of horse to do what he did. We just have to be hopeful that he’s all that we think he is.”

As for Scherer Magic, the betting favorite wasn't particularly magical: " . . . tugged his way along between horses and was shuffled back five eights out, stalked between rivals to the stretch, came out some but could not offer the necessary response." Maybe suffered from the same ailment as Amarish. Nice race by the filly Heir Kitty in this one, she should have won it! It will be interesting to see where she lands on the Experimental and should she run against other fillies next time out, given sufficient rest and recovery, I expect her to trounce em'.

The Bloodhorse story and video replay of the Best Pal Stakes can be found here: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71839/debuting-know-more-surprises-best-pal-rivals

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

Next race: Saratoga Special Stakes GII !
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

The third race is the Saratoga Special Stakes GII. Wonderful history and a great deal of prestige associated with this race.

The Saratoga Special Stakes is an American grade II thoroughbred horse race run annually in mid-August at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. The race is for two-year-olds willing to race six and a half furlongs on the dirt. With its first run in 1901, the Saratoga Special was a winner-take-all race until 1959 when it became a standard stakes race. The race was held at Belmont Park on the Widener Course in 1943, 1944, and 1945. There was no race in 1911 and 1912 due to the New York State legislated ban on pari-mutuel betting that led to the closure of all New York racetracks. There was also no race held in 2004.

Since inception it has been contested at various distances:
5.5 furlongs: 1901-1906 6 furlongs: 1907-1993, 2005 6½ furlongs : 1994 to present

Only four horses have ever won all three Saratoga Racecourse events for two-year-olds.
Regret (1914), Campfire (1916), Dehere (1993), and City Zip (2000) each swept the Saratoga Special, Sanford Stakes and Hopeful Stakes.

Speed record:1:09.55 - Caller I. D. (1991)

Most wins by a jockey: 7 - Eddie Arcaro (1935, 1947, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1958, 1959)

Most wins by an owner: 4 - Harry Payne Whitney (1914, 1920, 1922, 1929) 4 - George D. Widener (1923, 1930, 1950, 1969)

Nice history.
(Wikipedia)

On to the race!

Interesting speed figures and workouts in this one.

Shanghai Bobby clocks a BRIS 103; Spurious Precision a BRIS 101; Southern Honor a BRIS 97; Dan the Tin Man a BRIS 99 and Drum Roll gets a BRIS 95. Hard to think two-year-olds can run this fast, but they’re breedin’ em’ for speed and speed is what we’ve got.

Kinda hard to sort em’ out. Pletcher has two runnin’ in this one, Drum Roll (300k) and Shanghai Bobby (105k), both show workouts on the same day, same track and likely worked in company. Anna Rose, ridin’ Shanghai Bobby, is winning at 7% while JohnnyV, ridin’ Drum Roll, is winning at 35% - I give the edge to Johnny V. Neither has works comparable to Dan the Tin Man (22k) who worked at WO on the training track, his first in 59.4 his second in 60.2. Ainslie tells us the training track is deeper and a bit more tiring than the main track and he advises to scratch one second off the training track time, so Dan the Tin Man runs his workouts in 58.4 and 59.2 – settin’ the track on fire and he is only two-years-old; gets a jock switch to Castellano. I did some research and found WO has four training surfaces. “In addition to the one mile oval main track and the incomparable E.P.Taylor 1 1/2 miles turf track, Woodbine has four additional training surfaces; the one mile dirt training track, the 7 furlong turf training track, the 1/4 jogging ring or sand ring, and the field. At no other racetrack in North America does such a variety of training options exist.” The past performances show Dan the Tin Man racing on the AWS, but he has been working on dirt and been’ workin’ blistering fast! Trainer Ricky Girffith has this horse dialed in! Gotta watch out here! I like him, but hard to know if he is a class fit; ships in running on a new surface - askin' a lot from this youngster. Spurious Precision shows a nice bullet work and no doubt he is ready. Speed bias for the meet is 80%, for the week 75% - hard to catch the front end. Pace likely wins this race. Anna Rose and JohnnyV hook up, burn off and Dan the Tin Man picks up the pieces. Get em' DanO!

Havin’ fun . . .

Dan the Tin Man
Drum Roll
Shanghai Bobby

Past Performances for the Saratoga Special: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Pletcher>Saratoga Special

Bloodhorse article Saratoga Special Stakes here: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71943/shanghai-bobby-favored-in-saratoga-special

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

Spurious Precision wins the Saratoga Special!

Spurious Precision was away early, sit the pace through blistering fractions while under pressure, vied a bit off the rail early on the turn then on the inside, was asked for more passing the five-sixteenth pole, came under a right-hand whip in upper stretch, disposed of Drum Roll outside the furlong marker, drew off under continued right hand urging then was eased up late while much the best.

Nice colt. No doubt ran off Shanghai Bobby and Drum Roll didn't stand a chance. Went off as the bettin' favorite, I didn't see this guy coming. Nice job the the trainer here.

I liked Dan the Tin Man . . . well, he just didn't have any heart! Dan the Tin man moved near the five-eights pole while just off the pace, dropped back leaving the backstretch, raced inside on the turn and stopped then was put under a protective hold late. Nice job by the jockey here to keep hold of this horse for a better day.

I'm gonna be taking a look at the data set thus far . . . I'm thinkin' there is a relationship, some kind of pattern between purchase price and winning.

Next race the With Anticipation Stakes, G II.

Nothin' like The Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Whirlaway]

The fourth race in the series is the With Anticipation Stakes G II ! Boys runnin' on the grass! Got a full field in this one, looks competitive.

The With Anticipation Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually near the end of August or early September at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Raced on turf at a distance of one mile [1/16th], it is open to two-year-old horses. Formerly a Grade III race, the American Graded Stakes Committee upgraded it to Grade II for 2011.
The race is named in honor of George W. Strawbridge, Jr.'s outstanding turf runner, With Anticipation.

Speed record: 1:41.26 - Nownownow (2007)

Most wins by an owner: 2 - Fab Oak Stable (2005, 2007)

Most wins by a jockey: No jockey has won this race more than once.

Most wins by a trainer: 2 - Patrick Biancone (2005, 2007) 2 - Todd Pletcher (2008, 2009)
(Wikipedia)

Past Performances here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Pletcher>With Anticipation


Nice one.


Interesting how the Dosage numbers change from dirt to grass. Don't know for certain there is a link between purchase price and the winners circle, but I'm a watchin' this race with anticipation as there is a broad spectrum of purchase prices – maybe a pattern will develop.

He’s So Fine ran second to Spurious Precision in the Saratoga Special, went from a MC to a G2, likely benefited from a fast pace. I like him here but jockey has poor grass win %. Sonofsamurai ran a nice one in his last making a bold split late and running clear but a low speed figure. Balance the Books looks like a good fit here. Second to Carving Carats in his first, shows good turf % numbers and gets two solid works on the tr.t, trainer is winning 27% 2nd grass race and gets a jock switch; speed figure first time out is competitive. Pletcher looks like he has a live one in Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey's Charming Kitten, shows good turf % numbers, 2nd grass race numbers, Mdn win L/R numbers, strong jockey win % on the grass and shows two solid works – all the numbers point towards Charming Kitten, this guy should be tough to beat. Won't be an easy one for the Pletcher charge as Michael Maker brings in Joha winner of the 150k Colin Stakes, Prime Power has him ranked first. Shows good turf % numbers, good 1st at route numbers and a nice series of works; hasn’t raced in 47 days and comes in with fresh legs. How do they catch The B's And E's? Gets the 6fl in 1:10.1 and draws clear, hasn’t raced in 46 days, comes in with fresh legs and show those dogs up tough works on the grass at Saratoga, nice. Craving Carats the 320k purchase shows a good last race, but he was spanked by the 4k The B’s And E’s, it'll be interesting seein' how these two finish up.

Hmmmm . . . Meet totals: Turf 8.5, # of races: 29, % Wire: 14 / Week totals: 8.5, # of races: 4, % Wire: 25. Track appears to be favoring (S) types. Let me see if the Dosage data and Aptitudinal Type data can help. The Center of Distribution for a Router Turf Early (RTE) is 0.53 – Balance the Books hits this marker with a CD of 0.53, nice.

Balance the Books is an AE, if he gets in I take him at 5/1. If Balance the Books doesn’t get in I figure they’ve Gotta beat the Pletcher horse Charming Kitten, at 3/1 looks like a good bet. It will be interesting to see what The B’s and E’s has for em’ coming down the stretch.

Lookin’ forward With Anticipation!

Nothin’ like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

[Bill from WA]

I rather like The B's And E's at a price.
_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

[Whirlaway]

Balance the Books wins the With Anticipation Stakes !

Blance The Books was taken in hand early, dropped to the rear, lagged back while unhurried and off the inside, remained patient while still at the back on the far turn, shifted four wide and was asked in the vicinity of the five-sixteenth pole, swung six wide into the stretch, bumped with Hightail just as they straightened which tipped him into the seven path, rallied outside, gained his best stride in the final furlong and closed strongly to get up near the wire.

Wow, had to work for that one! Takes a lot to pick a winner in these races, particularly these two-year-olds, that one, just like most of em' took some racin' luck. Nice ride by the jockey here and nice piece of work by the trainer. Takes a special kinda horse and a special kinda jockey to win out front while runnin' on the grass, I've learned most of the winners come runnin' late. Joha ran a good one but was denied by the pace and Charming Kitten lacked the winning kick. Had some interesting scratches in this one . . . Lookin' forward to those three come the Breeders' Cup.

Think a little more attention is due to the Aptitudinal Type data as it may have been the difference in this one. FYI, the link to: What is Aptitudinal Type? http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/aptitudinal_type.htm

Gotta love the game.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.