Oaks Trail 2013 2YOs: Frizette Stakes G I

Whirlaway · Last edited by Whirlaway on Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:06 pm; edited 6 times in total

I usually focus on the colts, as there is nothin’, nothin' like the Derby Trial, but it was brought to my attention by an astute reader of Derby Trail 2013, that the Horse of the Year for two years runnin’ has been female, so I thought I'd take a journey outside the box this year and follow the fillies. I’m thinkin’ this is gonna be interesting and I am lookin’ forward to where the fillies take me.

I'm gonna post the past performances for and a brief history about important races leading up to the 2013 Kentucky Oaks. Lookin’ to learn more about the fillies, a fact or two about the history of each race and hopefully some of you handicappers and horseplayers out there will teach us rookies a thing or two about handicappin'. Very Happy

The first race will be the Sorrento Stakes G III. The Sorrento Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race held annually at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California. It is open only to two-year-old fillies and is run at a distance of six and one-half furlongs on Polytrack. A Grade III, it offers a purse of $150,000. Since inception the race has been contested at various distances and surfaces:

7.5 furlongs : 1967 (on turf)
6 furlongs : 1970-73 (on dirt)
1 mile : 1974-1985 (on dirt)
7 furlongs : 1986-1992 (on dirt) 6.5 furlongs : 1993-2006 (on dirt)
6.5 furlongs : 2007-present (on Polytrack)

Speed record:
(at current distance of 6.5 furlongs) 1:15.60 - Batroyale (1995)
Most wins by a Jockey:
6 - Laffit Pincay, Jr. (1976, 1980, 1987, 1989, 1993, 2000)
5 - Bill Shoemaker (1972, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1984)
Most wins by a trainer:
5 - Bob Baffert (1991, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004)
Most wins by an owner:
3 - Elmendorf (1974, 1975, 1978)
(Wikipedia)

I did a fair amount of research for this race. I was interested in finding out why the Sorrento Stakes was named the Sorrento Stakes - couldn’t find the answer. I can only think the race was named after Sorrento Valley or the city of Sorrento, only a few minutes south of Del Mar Racetrack.

Onto the race!

Nice one . . . after taking a quick look at the past performances, I thinkin’ this race is gonna be a barn burner! Most exciting race on paper thus far. Got some nice fillies goin in this one. O'Neill and Reddam team up again with Renee’s Titan – I’ll be payin’ close attention to this combo; Burt Bacharach sends out Serious, a son of Flower Alley; got a European invader son of Shamardal in Wittgenstein; Cassidy brings in a War Chant filly Somethingabouther; Miller brings in Speedthruthecity, he pulled her from the Best Pal Stakes; Baffert, five time Sorrento winner brings in Pegram, Watson and Weitman’s Executiveprivilege – whew! What a race! I’m a likin’ these fillies thus far, tryin’ not to get too excited as the Oaks is some ten months away.

The past performances for the Sorrento Stakes can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Baffert>Sorrento Stakes. Lookin' forward to handicappin' this race.

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!
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Class and condition, pace wins the race.

madelyn · Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:28 pm Post subject:

Interesting that they are letting those colts run in a race for two year old fillies! Only in California..
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So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

Whirlaway · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:52 am Post subject:

Whirlaway · Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:38 am Post subject:

Should be a fun one to watch.

Executiveprivilege should be tough. Purchased for 650K and shows a nice couple of works gotta be the class of the field. Won her first two relatively easy, Mr. Five time has her ready to fire - no excuses. To her inside is the Miller trained filly Speedthruthecity who chased Executivveprivilege in the Landaluce, another two nice works and likely to turn the tables on Executiveprivilege. To the outside of Executiveprivilege is the Biancone trained Switch to the Lead, winner last time out in a 70k MSW, shows a bullet 3fl work in 34.4 from the gate - I figure scratch a second for the gate and she runs a blistering 33.4, nice - gotta be ready and coming back after two short weeks. To the outside of Switch to the Lead is the Miller trained Bares Tripper coming in after an easy win in an 80k MC, Gomez switches from Bacharach’s Serious to this one . . . interesting jock switch. Hard to know for certain if the European invader Wittgenstein fits in this group, can’t quite understand the logic here, but another one owned by Reddam . . . this one is disconcerting. Somethingabouther ships in coming out of two relatively low level restricted races, this nice filly has some work to do but deserves a chance at the big time.

Big time race with particularly ambitious and avaricious owners and trainers bringing their horses back in relatively short periods of time, all of them seeking the long sought empire. I’ve seen this fashion bred wilt under this stressful racing and training regimen - they win two races then a sudden and inexplicable reversal in form - I’ve defined it as Fashion Bred Syndrome (FBS). In contrast is the Reddam owned and O’Neill trained Renee’s Titan coming back after forty-eight days rest and four nice works. She came in as a 50k MC so difficult to know if she is a class fit, but they must think well enough of her to give her a shot at a GIII second time out. I like the fact that they have given her time to develop – they’ve given her time for her bones and ligaments to shore up, given her some time to grow while still developing her racing ability through a structured and regimental series of workouts. I’ve seen this same pattern with other O’Neill trained horses and I believe he understands what it takes to have these fashion breds ready to run at full capacity. O’Neill tagged em’ in the Best Pal Stakes, will he be overlooked again in this one? If they give me good numbers, I’ll take Renee’s Titan.

Renee’s Titan
Executiveprivilege

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks . . . I like it!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:30 am Post subject:

Executiveprivilege wins the Sorrento Stakes!

Executiveprivilege had speed off the rail then between horses, stalked outside a rival or off the inside, bid three deep on the turn and into the stretch, gained the advantage in upper stretch, inched away and proved best under some urging.

Gotta give the credit where credit is due. Nice piece of work by Mr. Baffert here and happy to find him in good health. He knows how to bring out the best in these horses and they just love to run for him. Next year, I'll call him six time! Must be nice. Mr. Six Time comments on the fine filly, "She just trains herself," trainer Bob Baffert said. "We just let her run around there in the mornings, we haven't really done a lot with her. She loves this surface, she loves dirt, Hollywood Park (synthetic)—she didn't have any problem with it." Will be keepin' an eye on this filly as she is headed for the Del Mar Debutante come September 1st.

Renee's Titan ran a game race. She "pressed the pace inside then stalked along the rail leaving the backstretch, came out on the turn, re-bid alongside a foe then took a short lead between horses leaving the turn, fought back off the rail into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong." Gots a lot of fight in her! Lookin' for her to spank em' next time out.

The Bloodhorse story and the video of the Sorrento Stakes can be found here:http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71915/executive-sweet-in-sorrento

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!

Next race: Adirondack Stakes G II
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Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:15 am Post subject:

The second race is the Adirondack Stakes G II.

The Adirondack Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race first run in 1901. Held in the middle of August at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, the Adirondack Stakes is open to two-year-old fillies willing to race six and a half furlongs on the dirt. It is a Grade II event with a purse of $150,000. Named for the Adirondack Mountains of northeastern New York State, the race was first run in 1901 as a handicap for two-year-olds of either sex. Beginning in 1930 the race was restricted to fillies.

Since inception, the Adirondack has been contested at various distances:
5.5 furlongs : 1952-1955
6 furlongs : 1901-1910, 1913-1945, 1962-1993, 2005
6.5 furlongs : 1994-2003, 2006-present

This race was at Belmont Park in 1943, 1944, and 1945; and at Jamaica Racetrack in 1953 and 1954. It was not run in 1911 and 1912; from 1946 to 1952, from 1956 to 1961 and in 2004.

Speed record: (at current distance of 6.5 furlongs) 1:15.16 - You (2001)

Most wins by a jockey: 4 - Jorge Velasquez (1980, 1981, 1983, 1985)

Most wins by an owner: 3 - Harry Payne Whitney (1908, 1917, 1920) 3 - Edward R. Bradley (1934, 1935, 1944)

I’ve read other articles about Mr. Edward R. Bradley and thought his history rather compelling. For those interested I have added additional history about Colonel Bradley.

In 1898 Edward Bradley purchased his first race horse which quickly led to the acquisition of others and in 1906 he bought Ash Grove Stock Farm, a 400-acre property near Lexington, Kentucky which he renamed Idle Hour Stock Farm. Acquiring additional land, the expanded 1,000 acre farm became the leading Thoroughbred breeding operation in the American South and added greatly to the rise of Kentucky as the most important horse breeding state in America and the Kentucky Derby as the country's premier race.

At Idle Hour Stock farm, Bradley built first class stables and breeding and training facilities. The Colonial style architecture of its barns featured vita glass windows, designed to be transparent to ultraviolet rays of the spectrum. Bradley also established an equine cemetery where horses each received a marble headstone. A constant innovator, Bradley introduced the fibre skullcap worn by jockeys and as a racetrack owner made improvements to the starting gates.

All of his horses were given a name that began with the Bradley "B". His stallion Black Toney, purchased from James R. Keene in 1912, became the farm's first important sire. In December 1930, Bradley purchased the French mare La Troienne, who had been consigned by owner Marcel Boussac to the Newmarket, England Sales. La Troienne became one of the most influential mares to be imported into the U.S. in the 20th century.

Over the years, Bradley's horses were conditioned for racing by several trainers such as Willie Knapp and Edward Haughton, but William J. "Bill" Hurley and future U.S. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Herbert J. Thompson met with the most success.

Bill Hurley trained Kalitan, who won the 1917 Preakness Stakes, and Bagenbaggage, who won the 1926 Latonia and Louisiana Derbys and was second to Bradley's own Bubbling Over in the Kentucky Derby. Hurley won the 1935 Florida Derby, Coaching Club American Oaks and American Derby with the great filly and 1991 Racing Hall of Fame inductee Black Helen. Another of Bill Hurley's important Hall of Fame horses was Bimelech, who earned U.S. Champion 2-Yr-Old Colt and 3-Year-Old honors in 1939 and 1940 respectively, and just missed winning the U.S. Triple Crown when he finished second in the 1940 Kentucky Derby, then won both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Known as "Derby Dick", Herbert Thompson trained Bradley horses that won numerous important stakes race including four Kentucky Derbys, two of which were the first ever back-to-back wins by a trainer or by an owner. Thompson won one of the Derbys with Burgoo King in 1932, who also won that year's Preakness Stakes. The most important horse Thompson trained for Edward Bradley was Blue Larkspur. The colt won the 1929 Belmont Stakes and was voted United States Horse of the Year honors and in 1930, U.S. Champion Older Male Horse.

Edward Bradley's wins in the American Classic Races were as follows:
Kentucky Derby
1921 - Behave Yourself
1926 - Bubbling Over
1932 - Burgoo King
1933 - Brokers Tip
Preakness Stakes
1917 - Kalitan
1932 - Burgoo King
1940 - Bimelech
Belmont Stakes
1929 - Blue Larkspur
1940 - Bimelech

For a time Edward Bradley served as president of the Thoroughbred Horse Association of the United States and in recognition of his substantial contribution to the prosperity of the State of Kentucky, he was honored with a Kentucky Colonel title by the Governor.
Nice history.
(Wikipedia)

On to the race!

Mr. Pletcher looks like he has a lock on this one with Stonerstreet Stable’s Kauai Katie. The 490k purchase ran lights out first time; shows a substantial pace advantage getting the 5fl in 57.1, no of the others is even close – but she only shows one work on the tr.t. Anna Rose is up. Will Anna Rose win the Adirondack and the Saratoga Special stamping herself as the first woman to win both? Nice. Sweet Shirley Mae and Fully Living both came up empty in their last; Cayllano looks to be a nice filly, but appears short on class coming out of Delaware; Vitameta and Salamera, both shipping in from Calder look good, Salamera the better of the two, but both hardly look like a match for Kauai Katie. Now Kauai Katie and Executiveprivilege that will be a hoss' race come the Breeders' Cup!

Kauai Katie

Past performances for the Adirondack Stakes: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

Bloodhorse article Adirondack Stakes: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/71942/pletcher-holds-strong-hand-in-adirondack-saratoga-special

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:24 am Post subject:

Kauai Katie wins the Adirondack Stakes!

Kauai Katie quickly established control, pulled on the bit from the left side but otherwise proved ratable, make it to the quarter pole with none having been latched on, was giver her cue entering the stretch and responded positively, scampered away from the competition to emerge from the furlong grounds on possession of her biggest advantage, maintained it, crossing the finish line under a hand ride.

These chart writers, some of em' are pretty good, and they write it so well. I would add, it was a walk on the beach! Will be keepin' an eye of this fine filly.

Next race, the Del Mar Debutante Stakes, G I

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks.
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:23 am Post subject:

The third races in this series is the Del Mar Debutante Stakes G I. Should be a live one! Pegram, Watson and Weitman’s $ 650k purchase Executiveprivilege, winner of the G III Sorrento comes back in a G I against Bernsen and Makin’s 32k purchase Heir Kitty who almost beat the boys in the G II Best Pal Stakes!

The Del Mar Debutante Stakes is an American thoroughbred horse race restricted to two-year-old fillies run each year in early September at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California. A Grade I event since 1996, the Debutante is raced on Polytrack synthetic dirt at a distance of seven furlongs and offers a purse of $250,000.

Inaugurated in 1951 at a distance of six furlongs, in 1974 the race was changed to a one mile event then in 1993 to its current seven furlongs. The Del Mar Debutante Stakes was raced in two divisions in 1984.

Speed record: 1:21.40 - Call Now (1994) (at current distance of 7 furlongs)

Most wins by a jockey: 5 - Bill Shoemaker (1953, 1954, 1972, 1974, 1979)

Most wins by a trainer: 9 - D. Wayne Lukas (1978, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1996)

Most wins by an owner: 3 - M/M E. B. Johnston (1959, 1970, 1971)
(Wikipedia)

Past performances: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Baffert>Del Mar Debutante.

Lookin' forward to this one.

Pete Miller has three goin' in this one in Heir Kitty, Miss Empire and Speedinthruthecity, bringin' all he has got to beat that Baffert horse. Heir Kitty shows a relaxed 3fl and 6fl work but he cranks her up to 48.2 in the 4fl work; Miss Empire shows the same series of works but the 6fl and 4fl work aren't as impressive; Speedinthruthecity show two works, a relatively easy 4fl in 50 flat and a solid 5fl in 59 flat, this one should be ready but of the three I like Heir Kitty, she damn near beat the boys in her last. Pat's Back with Patrick Valenzuela, shows no works. Wasted At Midnight was squeezed and steadied in her only start and shows blinkers added and two good works, askin' an awful lot to go from a MSW 70k to a G I; Doubledown Stable's Mechaya looks tough, won her first relatively easy, shows the highest last speed rating, gets a fast 47 flat 4fl work and a racing speed 1:12.3 work, Sadler has her ready. I liked Renee's Titan in the Sorrento, but she gets a new trainer and a negative jock switch - hard to know with this one. Executiveprivilege is no doubt the proven class of the field annexing the 150k Landaluce and the G III Sorrento, she shows the most impressive works and the 6fl work in 1:10.4 means absolute business. Gotta beat this horse! Beholder also looks tough and may be the wild card in this one. She shows a solid 3fl work in 36; a solid 5fl work in 59; most impressive is her 7fl work in 1:25.1, Mandella has put some wind into her and she'll get the 7fl easy and the 6fl work in 1:14 augments the complete series of works, nice piece of art with the conditioning process by the trainer here - she might be the kind, we'll see.

Tough one. Meet totals: 7 races at 7f, only one winner wire to wire. Week totals: 2 races 50% wire to wire; surface appears to be favoring E and EP types. The race rating (RR) for the Best Pal and the Sorrento are equal at 116. Hard to think that is true as the fillies ran the Sorrento in 1:16.4 and the boys ran the Best Pal in 1:16 flat. To further confound matters the speed rating for Heir Kitty in the Best Pal is lower than the speed rating for Executiveprivilege in the Sorrento. Are the numbers everything?

Gonna be tough to beat the Baffert horse in this one . . . class and those blistering works. If runnin' against and almost beating the colts in a G II has any significance, and I think it does, then comin' back in a G I against the same types and winning isn't gonna be easy, but I think it can be done.

Heir Kitty to upset Executiveprivilege. Very Happy

These fillies are impressive!

On the Trail of The Kentucky Oaks!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:24 am Post subject:

Executiveprivilege wins the Del Mar Debutante Stakes!

Executiveprivilege stalked four wide then three deep on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch, drifted out some in the drive but rallied under urging to get up on the wire.

Won the thing by a nose! Still won it . . . an impressive filly. Nice job by the jockey here and nice job by Mr. Baffert. Baffert knows how to work these horses and get the best out of em' - key is in the workouts. We'll see what kind of speed figure she gets out of this one. I think maybe she showed a little weakness here . . .

Beholder hit the side of the gate at the start, sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace along the inside, kicked away in the stretch and held on gamely but was edged on the wire.

Mandella put in a nice series of works with this filly and I thought she might be the kind, she just missed. Interesting she went off at 8/1. I don't know that that the betting public understands the relationship between workouts and racetrack performance. l've seen this pattern a few times and I believe it represents what may be one area where a keen workout handicapper can win a few bets.

Heir Kitty also broke a bit slowly, was allowed to settle toward the inside then just off the fence on the turn, swung out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response.

Just didn't have it. One of two things: Horses of lesser class can't repeat back to back tough performances while horses of greater class can or that last race took too much out of her. Looking forward to seein' how this pattern develops.

As it goes and not doubt, Executiveprivilege and Beholder will have their work to do runnin' against them fillies stabled at Saratoga!

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks and I'm likin' these fillies!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:17 am Post subject:

The fourth race in the series is the Spinaway Stakes G I. Quite frankly, these filly races just keep gettin’ better all the time! This one here is gonna be a barn burner with Teen Pauline setting a track record in her last and So Many Ways winning the G III Schuylerville.

The Spinaway Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Open to two-year-old fillies, it is a Grade I event contested at a distance of seven furlongs on dirt. The Spinaway is a major prep to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Since inception in 1881, the Spinaway has been run at different distances:
5 furlongs : 1881-1900
5.5 furlongs : 1901-1921
6 furlongs : 1922-1993
7 furlongs : 1994 to present

The Spinaway was hosted by Belmont Park in 1943, 1944 and 1945. It was not run from 1892 to 1900. The race was cancelled in 1911 and 1912 following a New York State legislated ban on parimutuel betting.

Speed record: 1:08:03 - Ruffian (1974)

Most wins by a jockey: 5 - Angel Cordero, Jr. (1977, 1980, 1984, 1987, 1989)

Most wins by a trainer: 5 - D. Wayne Lukas (1984, 1985, 1987, 1994, 1995)

Most wins by an owner: 4 - James R. Keene (1902, 1906, 1908, 1915) 4 - Greentree Stable (1929, 1932, 1949, 1955)
(Wikipedia)

PPs: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Pletcher>Spinaway

Most excellent race!

Teen Pauline sets a track record first time out, but only going 5fl, shows three works, the 6fl work in 1:12.4 means business - looks like a Baffert work. Asmussen, winning at 19% with 2YOs has her ready to go but a big leap to a G I going two additional furlongs, askin’ an awful lot for second time out, we’ll see what she has for em’. Pletcher, winning at 28% with 2YOs brings in Corail, easy winner first time out, but two relatively easy works, gets a jock switch. Dutrow, winning at 34% Wnr last race, brings in So Many Ways winner of the G III Schuylerville, Roman Performance Figure (RPF) of -26 had her ranked top filly in the country prior to the performance of Executiveprivilege (RPF -30) in the Del Mar Debutante. Nice running style coming in with fresh legs off four nice works on the tr.t . . . will the four short works be enough? Sweet Shirley Mae, good filly but got spanked by So Many Ways in the Schuylerville; Baby J, good filly and game effort in the Schuylerville, gets a new trainer and shows five works, the 4fl work particularly sharp, but appears to lack late drive. Pletcher brings in another with Dreaming of Julia, easy ten length winner last out at 6.5fl under a vigorous hand ride, easy 4fl work and sharp 5fl in 59.2, I like the distance in her last race and I think this filly with JohnnyV up is going to be particularly tough to beat. Closing out the field Mott brings in Seasoned Warrior easy winner hand urged in last but only one work.

Whew! Live one! Interesting that four of em’ are AP Indy types. Meet: 67% speed bias with 30% wire to wire. Week 50% speed bias with 0% wire to wire. Interesting. Looks like we’ve got a level playing field and that is all a good handicapper can ask.

So Many Ways
Dreaming of Julia

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:11 am Post subject:

So Many Ways wins the Spinaway Stakes!

So Many Ways came away in good order, took up position from along the outside within range of the front runners, chose the three path as the one to take during the run around the bend, ranged up readily once upon it, looking Teen Pauline in the eye a few strides before reaching the quarter pole, continued on nearly terms as the pair spun into the stretch, got asked for a response and gave it, shaking free during the ensuing furlong, extended the margin in the last eighth kept to strong handing to the end.

Nice. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Good patient ride by the jockey here and nice work by the trainer and his backstretch associates. Ainslie wrote the deeper surface of the training track helps develop stamina and Roman had her tagged as the top filly in the country. She proved to be a dead fit class filly showing some of markers of a good one. No doubt I caught a little bit of racing luck in this one and I made a good guess. She gets a RPF -30, same as Executiveprivilege! Oh gracious, might we have a horse race here!

Lookin' forward to these two fillies lockin' horns come the Breeders' Cup.

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 7:02 pm Post subject:

No trainer past performances available for Arlington-Washington Lassie G III.

Next race: Chandelier Stakes G I (formerly the Oak Leaf Stakes).

Lookin' forward to em' runnin' at Santa Anita.

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:34 pm Post subject:

Good to be back. Gotta’ shake the rust off . . . remember the fundamentals: class and condition pace wins the race; Dosage gives me aptitudinal type and distance parameters, can’t forget the how the racetrack surface governs ability.
~
Two-year-old fillies stretching out in the Chandelier Stakes G I (formerly the Oak Leaf Stakes). Baffert looks to have the class filly on the west coast in the undefeated Executiveprivilege !

The fifth race in the series is The Oak Leaf Stakes G I an American Thoroughbred horse race held annually at the end of September at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. It is restricted to two-year-old fillies. The Grade I race is contested at a distance of one and one-sixteenth miles on the main track at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

From 1997 through 2001, the Oak Leaf Stakes was raced at a distance of one mile (8 furlongs).

Speed record: 1:41.20 – It's In The Air (1978)
Most wins by a jockey: 5 – Chris McCarron (1983, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992)
Most wins by a trainer: 9 – D. Wayne Lukas (1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, 1995, 1996)
Most wins by an owner: 2 – Barry Beal & Lloyd French, Jr. (1982, 1986) 2 – Bob & Beverly Lewis (1994, 2002) 2 – Golden Eagle Farm (1998, 2000)
(Wikipedia)

Past Performances: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Baffert>Chandelier Stakes

Nice one.

AP Indy type Majestic Minister ran a good one in her last at a mile and should like the additional distance but the soft works and low speed figure don’t give much confidence; Renee’s Queen also ran a good one in her last on the turf, gets a positive post and a sharp 5fl workout, but again, a low speed figure; Switch to the Lead appears to be backing up, takes the blinkers off but a low speed figure and soft work; Wittgenstein gets her trainer, shows a nice series of works since her last race – hard to know the logic behind this European; Beholder may be the one. Has three under her belt, the first two at 5.5f, stretched out to 7f and just missed, may have been a victim of her own pace; show an easy 5fl in 52.3, comes right back with a 7fl work in 1:26.3 and a nice 3fl in 37.1. Possesses Dominant Classicity with a .33 CD. Mandella has her set to fire her best race; Butterfly Soul looks to be a sprinter; Baffert’s Executiveprivilege is the horse to beat. Roman Performance Figure (RPF) of -5 on 8/8 then a RPF -30 on 9/1, big jump; softer works may indicate a down cycle in form or a sign of weakening, but these class horses with Hall of Fame trainers hold their form; possesses Dominant Classicity with a .36 CD. Scarlet Strike ran a good on in her last, three nice works but low speed figure; Salamera ships in from Calder, asking a lot; Contessa’s Moment will need a special moment; Miss Empire belongs but appears to have recurring problems.

Hmmm . . . . last meet data shows 60 races at the distance 37 of em’ won wire to wire with a 70% speed bias. Took a look at the workout data for the last week and the fastest times are getting faster – gotta figure a lickety-split racing surface. Ainslie says let em’ race for a while and get more data before one makes a bet, but I don’t have that time!

This should be an interesting handicappin' race. Beholder appears to be on the up cycle in form while Executiveprivilege appears to be holding or on the down cycle. Executiveprivilege has beaten me twice and I don’t like it! With a speed favoring track and with just a bit slower pace, Beholder should hold.

Beholder
Executiveprivilege

Good to be back on the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks!
_________________
Class and condition, pace wins the race.

Barcaldine · Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:53 pm Post subject:

"Dosage gives me aptitudinal type and distance parameters"

Don't bet on it.

Like Nicking products, Dosage is a commercial enterprise designed to make money for it's most recent inhabitant, Steve Roman. It is just about as unreliable as Nicking products are as a predictive tool.

e.g. KONA GOLD and JOHN HENRY.

Whirlaway · Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:22 am Post subject:

Executiveprivilege wins the Chandelier!

Executiveprivilege broke in and bobbled slightly, had speed between horses then angled in and set a pressured pace inside, inched away on the second turn, was ridden along to open up in the stretch and was under a long hold late.

My oh my, what a horse.

Don't think I've ever seen the comment "was under a long hold late." She remains undefeated and beating Baffert seems just as difficult. I liked Beholder in this one but she was scratched by the trainer. Perplexing the scratch . . . did Mandella back her out because of the competition or was it a legit trainer scratch, I think likely the competition; will be watching for her to come out soon enough - looking for a 3fl blowout. I did have Executiveprivilege as my second choice - guess I could call it a win but I don't do so wholeheartedly.

As noted in the pre-race, Executivprivilege scored a RPF -5 in the Landaluce, a RPF -30 in the Debutante and she put up a RPF -12 in the Chandelier. I don't know for certain that she weakened. She was under a "long hold late" and that likely influenced the numbers. A fine example of the numbers telling most of but not all of the story - more to handicappin' than just the numbers. Mind you the numbers are critical, but equally critical is the human factor - the trainer and the jockey, their intents and purposes. That's what this thread is all about. Nevertheless and all things considered, this filly is gonna be tough come the Breeders' Cup. Lookin' forward to seein' what she has got for So Many Ways and Dreaming of Julia.

Gotta give credit where credit is due. Congratulations to Bobby B, stay well Bobby B, and fine ride by the jockey here, nice piece of work.

Next race: The Alcibiades Stakes G I

On the Trail of the Kentucky Oaks . . . like I never left!
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Class and condition, pace wins the race.