Invasor [ARG]

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Five Sixteen was 4th, 11 3/4 lengths behind Eye of Jacob, who won by 7 1/4. Five Sixteen acted up in the gate and the jockey had to dismount. He was reloaded and broke 2nd, ran 4th into the stretch, dropped back to 6th, was angled off the rail to be widest of all, ended up 4th.

The 1 1/8 mile was run in 1:49.57, 1.39 sec faster than the Wood Memorial, run in 1:50.96. Using the standard figure of 5 lengths per second Five Sixteen ran faster than in his MSW win: a mile in 1 38.12 versus 1:41.72 and 1 1/8 in 1:51.93 versus 1:55.11. (Comparing different races on different days is speculation but 4th place horse in the Wood finished in about that time.)

His trainer definitely got him to run faster. But he was closing at snail pace if at all, and the other 3 yo in the race was 4 1/2 lengths ahead of him. Did acting up in the gate affect his performance? Or does he have a closing kick only if not rushed? Also 10 & 12 furlong races are different ...

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU041812USA3.pdf

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Light Zabeel and Manaar are making their debuts in the Coln Valley Stud Bridget Maiden Fillies' Stakes(4) 7f on good to soft turf for a purse of 7,000 Euros tomorrow. There are 19 unraced fillies running, should be exciting, maybe scary. (Hey, since this race has my name on it do I get to pick the winner?)

The race: http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/200412/Newbury-GB-Nwb/1515

Manaar:http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/form/horse/1/00307834

Light Zabeel:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/form/horse/1/00316239

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Gagne was 3d in her 6f MSW, and earned $3,630. She's back on track!

[url]http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PIM041912USA2.pdf [/url]

In France neither Aghadeer or Golf Juan made it into the races they were nominated to.

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Photon won his 6f race and earned $26,400. He stumbled at the start, ran at the back,and went last to first in the final sixteenth for the win.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU042012USA6.pdf

There was only 2 1/2 lengths between Photon and the last place finisher - a well matched field. There were 5 scratches and, as part of NYRA's new policy they specified that 3 were vet scratches, one stewards and one trainer. Five vet scratches seem like a lot.

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

The ground was soft for the Maiden Fillies Stakes. Light Zabeel was 4th of 18, missed 3d by a neck. She was positioned for a run at the leaders but was one paced. (She must have a good cruising speed to be 4th anyway.) She earned 337 EU Manaar was close early but faded and ended up 12th of 18.

GG.com had race comments, better than Timeline:
https://gg.com/racing/form-profile-1513455

This site has free race videos:
http://www.racinguk.com/horse/77405-light-zabeel

clh · Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:44 pm Post subject:

Yeh for Photon! You are right - 5 vet scratches seems like a lot!!
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Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

More good news. Furia de Invasor is Invasor's 11th winner on his second race:

http://www.hipodromodemonterrico.com/pedigree/sistemas/arbol/ver_resultado.php?id_carrera=108319

Clh: The race was 5.5 f. Are the Invasors getting the kick they lacked at 2 now at 3? Vader and the other early winners needed a distance of ground to grind 'em down. Now we have something new. In what order do horses develop racing capacity? (My specialty was cell division, doesn't help much!)

clh · Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:36 pm Post subject:

Brigitte,

I have no idea what the deal is, but as long as they are winning we'll take it! Perhaps since most of them are big (and apparently late developers) they aren't even starting until three and the ones that raced at two weren't fully developed? Of course, no two year old is, IMO. I know that Vader is having a growth spurt so who knows? Again, hopefully it just means that they will be able to run short AND long as they mature. Going back to daddy - he was certainly a late(r) bloomer.
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

They are winning! Holy Invader won his 3d in a row, at a mile&70 this time, and collected $18,000.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PRX042112USA7.pdf

Rick Dutrow may have the same idea as Dominick Schettino, trainer of Five Sixteen: speed must go up. The 6f race Photon won yesterday was just a well paid speed work. He runs again April 24 (on 2 days rest) at Parx in a Starter Allowance at a mile for 3 year olds and upward, his jock, Mike Luzzi, goes to Parx with him. The other horses are 3-6 years old, multiple wins and there's a Smart Strike that looks good but nothing anywhere near as fast as Eye on Jacob. Also, Photon ran well at a mile a day after a 6f work.

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PRX042412USA-EQB.html#RACE8

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Kollos returns in a $12,500 6f mcl at Prairie Meadows for 3 and older on April 26. The purse is $13,000.

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PRM042612USA-EQB.html#RACE2

A big drop in class so it should be a slower race. In fact the final times of the races his competition ran in last were slower - but a couple of them set or were close to sizzling early fractions like the ones Kollos couldn't handle. Maybe he's fitter.

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Sicklinghall makes his racing debut April 26 in an MSW for maidens 3 and upward on April 26 at Pimlico. The race is 1 1/16 miles for a purse of $33,000. He is the only unraced horse but is still the 2nd ML choice, the favorite is Round Midnight, a Zito trainee who finished 4th to Five Sixteen at 1 1/8.

Clh: his trainer is Graham Motion, bucking tradition to make Sicklinghall the longest distance race debut for an Invasor so far.

Photon was scratched from his race at Parx. Photon seems to be a really tough guy but I'm glad he isn't coming back so fast. I hope they're saving him for a race at Belmont, which opens this Friday.

clh · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:32 pm Post subject:

I'm glad Photon didn't race back so soon as well Brigitte.

Let's keep our fingers crossed for Sickinghall - Graham Motion certainly preps his horses well, so we'll see what happens. I know I didn't do this right, but this is a nice article on what GM thinks about his maidens and when/where to start them.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2012/01/17/training-graham-motion-on-planning-ahead.aspx#
_________________
"We are the people our parents warned us about" - Jimmy Buffett

"My occupational hazard is that my occupation is just not around" - Jimmy Buffett

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Thanks, Clh! I read the article and followed the link in it to the article on choosing the distance. Motion says he relies a lot on pedigree: Invasor, check! (The dam was a miler). Also body type, which we don't know. Then this: “Sometimes I think a sprint can be a good education for them, so I like to do it with a lot of them. But at the same time, if a horse is clearly not cut out to be a sprinter, we go ahead and stretch him out the first time."

Looks like Sicklinghall is "clearly not cut out to be a sprinter", no surprise. I didn't put the entries for Sicklinghall"s race in the last post, here they are:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PIM042612USA-EQB.html#RACE2

The choice of Pimlico says Motion doesn't want to throw Sicklinghall in at the deep end of the pool = New York. But New York came to him. Round Midnight was in Five Sixteen's winning MSW at 1 1/8 at Aqueduct. Zito has blinkers on = gun it, baby! Luckily Sicklinghall's works are on the fast side - for an Invasor.

So far only one Invasor won his debut. Here's hoping for another!

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Before his last race at Keeneland Kollos worked a fast 5f. This time he worked 5f 2 sec slower at Keeneland, shipped to Prairie Meadows early and worked 3f there. Less excitable & fitter? It's interesting to watch Dorochenko looking for the key to Kollos. I'm rooting for them.

Brigitte · Starters Handicap Joined: 19 Oct 2011 Posts: 523

Sickling hall broke 3d, ran 4 wide into the backstretch, stalked 3 wide into the far turn, then had no response when asked, retreated and finished 6th (last).

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PIM042612USA2.pdf

Kollos broke 6th, got up to 4th in an opening fraction of 22.26. After that he retreated, finished last.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PRM042612USA2.pdf

The pattern is pretty clear when you put it in a table:

Broke 1/4 K rank Afterwards
Race 1 5f dirt 2nd 22.92 6th retreated
Race 2 7.5f turf 1st 24.63 1st led to upper str, gave way
Race 3 6f syn 1st 21.99 4th stopped, eased
Race 4 6f dirt 6th 22.26 4th retreated

The only race where he showed something was the longest with the slowest opening quarter, set by Kollos himself. He liked it in front. The guy runs all out at the start, then retreats. Last time he was dropped in class but the opening fraction was only 0.27 slower. He broke 6th but was in 4th place 3 behind the leader at the 1/4 - a length CLOSER that at Keeneland. Then he retreated.

I've read that it's really hard to get a horse to rate. But what about increasing endurance? Could Kollos steal a longer race with slow enough early fractions by relaxing at the front end?