TRUE and E Nicks

oleos93 · Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 2:48 pm Post subject: TRUE and E Nicks

How many people actually do a True Nick or eNick report and follow what it grades to be the best match for your mare?

Just curious as I am looking next year to bred two of my mares to an out side stallion. So I did a few True and E nicks and got alot of A and B's but still does not help decide.

madelyn · Posted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:47 pm Post subject:

I don't consider those programs' results to be an important factor in selecting a mating for my mares.
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So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

Barcaldine · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:16 am Post subject:

True Gimmicks and E Gimmicks are based on faulty data and assumptions. That's one reason why you received different ratings on the same hypo breeding.

They also ignore all female contributions, including male/female affinities. Conformation and temperament are also absent in their "analysis."

If you want a complete meal you go to a nice restaurant. If you just want something to fill your stomach you go to a drive-thru hamburger joint.

Nicking products are high priced, low value junk food.

oleos93 · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:54 am Post subject:

I agree....I have always felt the same way but so many high end breeders, (hence they put the Nicks on their web site for each stud) swear by them.....I think it is nonsence and just wanted to see if I was the only one.

Why do so many people put faith in that system.

madelyn · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:01 pm Post subject:

I think it is the opposite.. nicks tend to over-simplify decisions for those for whom the whole pedigree thing is just too big to grasp. So the stud farms put the nicking links on their website in the hopes of getting a mare booked with nothing more to offer than an A rating - the stud farm doesn't care provided she comes with a checkbook.
_________________
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

Barcaldine · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 5:03 pm Post subject:

Nick Gimmicks serve one purpose---to make money for the companies which provide them. That's why the Blood-Horse jumped on board the Nickwagon. Their advertising revenues took a hard hit so in their struggle to survive swallowed their professional pride and teamed up with True Gimmicks.

Stallion owners take advantage of this partnership because they think it will drum up more business. But NO career horseman takes this cottage industry seriously. Those who do also believes in the tooth fairy and in The Golden Arches of McDonalds.

brogers · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:31 pm Post subject:

brogers · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:40 pm Post subject:

oleos93 · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:37 pm Post subject:

So where does that leave a stallion owner that has a non performing stud (never raced) that can come up with a great "Nick" cross to a decent mare? Or not so decent even....Is this how these stallions get noticed?

There are a lot of well known stallions that have never raced or shown in anything yet end up producing winners......is this how they get the mares to them?

Katowice comes to mind only because I owned a filly out of him once.

Barcaldine · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:12 pm Post subject:

Shammy Davis · Chef de Race: Classic Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Posts: 4451

Barcaldine wrote:

NORTHSTAR1 · Yearling Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 54

ok here is one you can follow -----sky classic had two millionaire sons --both were from mares whose sire was a son of mr prospector ---both had nijinski 3x3 and both had bottom line going to one of the many crosses to selene and neither ran at two --------my gelding "string theory" is out of a mare bred to a son of mr prospector----he has 3x3 influence of nijinsky and is of the selene maternal family and 12 crosses---also he comes with bold ruler as do the other two ---

true nicks shows a A++ RATING -----will he make a million as the others did ????? well he breezed three times at two and will resume training shortly ------the stars are all lined up will they shine thru the clouds ??? run theo run

Joltman · Grade III Winner Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1108

There is certainly a statistical basis to both of the commercial nicking approaches. These affiinities are one of many tools that can be used. I don't know if they re-test and revise their models, but all they can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future. There is a force to regress to the mean - so those nicks that have enough statistical foundation should not be ignored. Nor should other valuable approaches.

jm
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Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

Joltman · Grade III Winner Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1108

There is certainly a statistical basis to both of the commercial nicking approaches. These affiinities are one of many tools that can be used. I don't know if they re-test and revise their models, but all they can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future. There is a force to regress to the mean - so those nicks that have enough statistical foundation and continue should not be ignored. Nor should other valuable approaches.

jm
_________________
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

Patuxet · Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:49 pm Post subject:

Joltman hits the nail on the head when he points out that all that nicks services "can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future." Or, as mutual fund prospectuses correctly warn, "past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Whether one puts much stock in nicks ratings or not, stallion owners and managers certainly seem to. They obviously take more kindly to mares with an A+ mating rating with their stallion and can make it a deciding factor in getting to a stallion -- and at what price.
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"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V