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bdw0617
Darley line
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 8929
Location: Little Rock, AR
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 Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Bast wrote: | | pfrsue wrote: | | Per the Daily Racing Form website, Bodemeister received a 105 Beyer, Dullahan a 98, and Hansen a 96. Thought that was interesting. |
It's bizarre. The final times for both races were about 2 seconds over the track records. |
beyer ha stopped being relevelant for big races, beyer is nothing more than a fashion accessory now.
i remember last year when i was yelling at the top of my lungs to anyone that would listen that game on dude was going to win the breeders cup classic. every person who told me he would not told me he was too slow look at his beyers they don't match up.
he didn't' win but to say he did not belong was laughable. and i got 13 to 1 on him.
what most people do not understand about beyers, is that the beyer speed figure, is just a simplistic equation for you to be able to compare raw times from one track / one day to another day because of all the other variants. it is not an ability rating.
a beyer is basically saying under these conditions, on this day and this class of horses, this is the horse racing for dummies speed number we give this specific race.
in other words, if you put hansen and take charge indy in that race and he doesn't get the same early race, he does not run that fast. it's the quality road syndrome. quality road could run stupidly high numbers under the right conditions but when he did not get his way he would stick his tough out and go home.
i get the sense of actual handicapping races, has become a lost art. very few of my handicapping friends actually know how to look at a race, break down splits, understand lone speed versus a hot contested pace. what you have now are highlight handicappers who look at how much a horse won by, how high the beyer is, what the trainers are saying in the news.
i am watching HRTV right now and bob is getting on TV now and talking about how the horse ran amazing and how he is really grown into himself and you have hardcore handicappers who will take that as gospel and unload on him in the derby and when he runs a well beaten 9th everyone will be looking for excuses and he will give them one and they will unload on him again and then wonder why they can't win or make money. the art of looking at a race and forming your own opinion is becoming exinct. we wait for people to tell us what to think now.
which i mean is good for me lol, but still its not good for the game.
but i stopped looking at beyers a long time ago. zenyatta doesn't run a 100 beyer all year in 2010 and in November just pulls a 111 out of her ass lol yeah okay.
the rail at keeneland has been golden all meet. sit right off the pace and make your move on the rail and you have a very good chance to win. horses that take the lead on the rail, the street sense maiden who won saturday for instance, get 2nd and third winds on the rail. Dullahan not only won he did so coming straight down the middle of the track. he wasn't losing saturday. i just don't think he can take his track with him.
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bdw0617
Darley line
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 8929
Location: Little Rock, AR
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| Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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millie ball just ointed out something very interested that i had not caught
each one of BM's splits, the first, 2nd and 3rd, are slower then the previous split. the 2nd split is slower than the first, the 3rd is slower than the 2nd.
first, in a real horse race he would not be allowed to do this. but secondly what does that say about the field that you can go slower and slower and still create separation?
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xfactor fan
Breeder's Cup Winner
Joined: 16 Sep 2004
Posts: 2180
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| Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:56 pm Post subject: |
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Since people are taking about Beyers I've got a question.
I thought the numbers were calculated based on the assumption that the speeds of claimers at any given track are standard.
So if claimers run a mile in X, then this becomes the basis to figuring out how fast the track is on any given day.
While this seems like a reasonable idea, what happens if there is a very weak field of claimers that day? Or does the data support the basic idea that all claimers run at the same speed?
Just wondering. |
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bdw0617
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Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 8929
Location: Little Rock, AR
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:28 am Post subject: |
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| xfactor fan wrote: | Since people are taking about Beyers I've got a question.
I thought the numbers were calculated based on the assumption that the speeds of claimers at any given track are standard.
So if claimers run a mile in X, then this becomes the basis to figuring out how fast the track is on any given day.
While this seems like a reasonable idea, what happens if there is a very weak field of claimers that day? Or does the data support the basic idea that all claimers run at the same speed?
Just wondering. |
that's not how i understood it though you could very well be right.
the way i was raised.. actually raised by my dad to know what beyers are is that it's just the 2 or 3 digit equivalent to a raw time. and that makes sense for the reason you just mentioned. take emerald downs who just had a horse break the world record or tie the world record. are you going to just say that the track was stupidly fast that day? sometimes claimers can run really really good races sometimes really good horses can run really really bad races i dont' think you can accurately use the class of a horse to determine how fast others should run
like in my head when i see 1:32 8F i think 98 Beyer. when i see 1:19 7F i think 105 beyer. the numbers are adjusted for any track variants or what not, and yes for instance they always have a 2 turn race before the derby or any big race really on a card, they will have like or it's usually standard to have a similar race run around the same distance to be able to use that as a barometer, for instance in the derby if they had a 3YO maiden special weight race that was a mile and a 16th and they ran in 1:44 considering that the maidens on derby day are going to be some of the best maidens you can find you would think that the track might be a little slow so if the derby winner comes in at 2:02 and 2 i could still see him getting a triple digit beyer.
but you have pointed out a very true fallacy with the beyers and pointed out something that i keep in mind. Beyers, which I find pretty useless in my style of handicapping, are worthless when using them when handicapping a horse that ran on a big day.
say you are looking to play a 3YO allowance race at churchll on may 20th, 1NWX allowance race, let's call the horse X. X ran in the under card on the derby . The derby, was won by say.... secret circle. who won the derby in 2:04 and change, a pedestrian final time for a 10F race at the grade 1 level. but to keep the triple crown train running and to not class all the horses out as pure garbage, the horse is assigned a 102 beyer speed figure. which might not seem like a big deal but now, this effects every horse that has run a dirt race on the entire card. every horse now gets a bump to account for this. so this horse that you think ran a 93 beyer, really ran like an 84.
this is EXACTLY what happened with the super saver derby. beyers for the next month or so at churchill were hot garbage and not worth the paper they were printed on. there is no doubt in my mind they pulled that number out of their ass IMHO which if i am not mistaken was a 102
when you start getting into big card days there is a very political element to beyers. a horse that ran off the TV screen i.e quality road has to get a high beyer or risk criticism but that does not mean he actually got that beyer but now every horse on the under card is effected.
also, beyer has a deep hatred of antyhing west coast. why i don't know but if it's from socal you can generally add about 5 points to it and be about right.
i'll have another and creative cause both ran a what, 95 beyer in the santa anita derby, won the race in 1:47 and change that's race horse time. even if hte track is souped up that's big boy time right there. bad horses don't run 1:47 and change 9F.
creative cause beat bodemister int he previous race, earning him an equally bad beyer maybe even worse like high 80's i am not 100% sure.
anyway, BM now goes to oaklawn and runs off the TV screen and runs 1:48 and somehow pulls a number that is about 14 points higher than his previous high lol. you got to be kidding me. yeah that's it.
then you have the political nature of propping up hype horses i.e union rags. now that was a very slow pace and the winner won in a pretty avg time yet Union rags still got a 93? 93 is an awfully convenient beyer speed figure. not good enough to win but good enough to show he is a contender still who just threw a clunker.
the higher in the game you get the more worthless beyers are becuase they become too politically based. the lower you are the more accurate you are. beyers are usually stone cold for tracks like lone star and mountaineer., but even then you have to ask yourself what really is the point in looking for pp's for a horse running for 5k at mountaineer on a monday night? the horse is more likely to sprout wings and fly than to run back to a previous high.
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Patuxet
Restricted Stakes Winner
Joined: 02 Dec 2006
Posts: 832
Location: New England & Florida
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:59 am Post subject: |
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I pay scant attention to speed figures, but prefer Steve Roman's (PFs) because they incorporate a pace factor. I believe Beyer's figures are based solely on the final time of a race while Roman's integrate final time and fractional times.
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da hossman
Allowance Winner
Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 321
Location: KY
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:59 am Post subject: |
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I find the Ragozin numbers much more accurate than Beyer and much more indicative of trending performance. It always bothered me that Beyer will occasionally go back and change a number after a week or two.
bdw, if I see a 1:32 mile I am expecting a 130 Beyer or a 0 Ragozin!
In private purchases of racehorses almost everyone uses Ragozin numbers (or Thoroughgraph) as their reference. I have not heard of anyone referring to Beyer numbers in this situation in 10 years or more.
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bdw0617
Darley line
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 8929
Location: Little Rock, AR
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| da hossman wrote: | I find the Ragozin numbers much more accurate than Beyer and much more indicative of trending performance. It always bothered me that Beyer will occasionally go back and change a number after a week or two.
bdw, if I see a 1:32 mile I am expecting a 130 Beyer or a 0 Ragozin!
In private purchases of racehorses almost everyone uses Ragozin numbers (or Thoroughgraph) as their reference. I have not heard of anyone referring to Beyer numbers in this situation in 10 years or more. |
[
that is another problem i have with them
sometimes, a horse will run a race that deserves a seriously high beyer but beyer will not believe that the horse is capable of that number and will adjust and then re adjust everything else on the card. a perfect example i believe it was tiago in the good wood a few years ago, ran like a 1:46 and change. best race of his career by far. ran lights out.
and note this was on the all weather not on the dirt. that's SMOKING. i think he gave him a 100 beyer for that race.
beyer's thinking is this horse is not capable of running that fast so obviously the track is souped up
i am not saying he should have got a 130 but a 100 is laughable
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da hossman
Allowance Winner
Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 321
Location: KY
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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1:46 in the Goodwood on the all-weather is extremely fast - I agree Beyer grossly undervalued the performance when he only gave a 100 Beyer.
I also agree that Beyer has always shown an East Coast preference/favoritism.
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stancaris
Allowance Winner
Joined: 16 Sep 2004
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:35 am Post subject: Tiago had a 103 in 2008 and a 106 in 2007 |
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Your facts are incorrect. Tiago received a 106 Beyer figure in the 2007 Goodwood and he won the race by a nose in 1:46 4/5 over polytrack. In 2008 he raced in the Goodwood and received a 103 Beyer figure and lost by a length to Well Armed in 1:47.
I disagree with your assessment of Beyer figures. They are a good indicator of how a horse runs his race and they are almost always the reason why a horse is made the favorite in most races. If one were to wager simply on the horse with the highest last out Beyer figure in the Kentucky Derby since 1992 when Beyer figures were first published in the Racing Form, one would have a huge positive ROI. Big longshots like Charismatic, Lil E Tee, War Emblem all came into the Derby with the highest last out Beyer figure and won at big odds. Funny Cide had the second highest last out Beyer and won at 13 -1. |
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zinn21
3rd Year Sire
Joined: 31 Jan 2005
Posts: 3306
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:56 am Post subject: |
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| My concern with Beyer figures is that from day to day tracks change. Synthetic tracks change even more. My trainer completely throws out Beyer numbers as a tool for claiming horses on synthetics. Cannot divulge his key tool but he has made some very astute claims over the years. |
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bdw0617
Darley line
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 8929
Location: Little Rock, AR
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: Tiago had a 103 in 2008 and a 106 in 2007 |
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| stancaris wrote: | Your facts are incorrect. Tiago received a 106 Beyer figure in the 2007 Goodwood and he won the race by a nose in 1:46 4/5 over polytrack. In 2008 he raced in the Goodwood and received a 103 Beyer figure and lost by a length to Well Armed in 1:47.
I disagree with your assessment of Beyer figures. They are a good indicator of how a horse runs his race and they are almost always the reason why a horse is made the favorite in most races. If one were to wager simply on the horse with the highest last out Beyer figure in the Kentucky Derby since 1992 when Beyer figures were first published in the Racing Form, one would have a huge positive ROI. Big longshots like Charismatic, Lil E Tee, War Emblem all came into the Derby with the highest last out Beyer figure and won at big odds. Funny Cide had the second highest last out Beyer and won at 13 -1. |
you hav eyour opinion i have mine.
i might look at 2 past performances a year and the only time i do is usually on breeders cup day when you have horses from parts of the country i don't watch.
keep in mind every last bit of info i posted here is off the top of my head, so if i get a number wrong or misremembered something it's not intentional.
i have no use for them and i do quite well
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zinn21
3rd Year Sire
Joined: 31 Jan 2005
Posts: 3306
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Well B Meister worked this morning at Churchill and Baffert said he just floated over the track so I am picking the horse to win the Derby. Good luck to all.. |
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Shammy Davis
Chef de Race: Classic
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Posts: 4451
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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| The timing is right for another VA bred to win the TC. |
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DDT
Grade I Winner
Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 1657
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:07 am Post subject: |
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Shammy
I would love to see an Empire Maker win the Derby. We know that Baffert knows what it takes to win this race and I am sure he would not run Bodie if he did not think the horse had a big shot. I think he will have his hands full with Rags, but I do like him for the win. Frankel touted Empire Maker as a Derby winner when the horse was a yearling and almost lived up to that in his Derby run. I do think that he sulked a little in deep stretch because of the whip, and once Baily started riding him again he got up for second. As always, a good stallion gets shipped off and one of his sons has a big chance to win the Derby. I don't know about a TC, but he gets my vote for the Derby. One thing is for sure, if he gets to the Belmont looking for the TC the mile and a half should not be a problem for him.
DDT |
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ElPrado
Grade II Winner
Joined: 18 Aug 2007
Posts: 1478
Location: Tampa
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Just for fun: part of Bodemeister was sold to Southern Equine this morning. |
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