Joined: 04 May 2007
Location: Little Rock, AR
|Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:10 pm Post subject: random derby thoughts
|after having a day to digest the races i have some thoughts about what i think will happen, what i think needs to happen and what i don't think should happen
1. i was not a hansen fan at all until his gotham. even after i was like meh. but that bluegrass race, made me a believer. it's clear to me that union rags just got his butt handed to him by a better horse on BC day.
IMHO he's the most talanted 3YO in the country. does not mean he will win the derby in fact he most likely won't but pound for pound i think he has the most poetnetial out of all them. he reminds me so much of hard spun.
the only real issue i see with him is him lol. he has mental issues. he cannot be restrained or doesn't like to have horses in front of him where he can see them.
if the trainer can figure out how to get this horse to just calm the hell down before the derby this field is in trouble. i would like to see an old school, hard spun like 57 second 2 days before the derby blow out to take the edge off him. that's exactly what this horse needs, a stiff drink lol. if he can relax in the derby and cruise without being restrained, he will win the Kentucky derby. but i doubt that happens
2. this derby reminds me so much of the 200....i want to say 4 derby where giacomo won. this race is going to be that. the best horses for the most part are speed need the lead types. whoever is going to get the lead has a suicide mission. this derby is going to ruin some careers i am afraid how wicked this pace is going to be and how unprepared the horses that are in it are going to be.
3. whoever you like this year you will get a very good price.
4. while i think hansen has the most talent out of any horse, I i think creative cause has been the best managed up to this point. no wear and tear traveling, a very methodical plan to get him to peak on the first saturday in may.
5. I like done talking enough to put him on any supers that i will be playing. he will most defiantly be running late and will eat up the distance. though i doubt he wins.
6. i just do not think the horses in new york are fast enough to compete. alpha may surprise me, i just don't see it. i could and have at times been very wrong though.
7. a horse that i like that is under every one's radar and i think has been just mismanged all to hell so far is ever so lucky. if he makes it in the derby and has a good week of training i would take a hard look at him. he loves churchill. they have just made one mistake after another with this horse and then he was scratched out of the fountain of youth race so he is behind the 8 ball but the races he has been running are not an indication of his real talent level he can run and has been put in some pretty pitiful spots considering what he likes to do
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”