The Belmont

Bill from WA · Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 5:41 pm Post subject: The Belmont

As I see it, the Belmont boils down to 5 possibilities. I’ll Have Another and Dullahan, have the most stamina influences in their pedigrees (IMO) with I’ll Have Another having the better cruising speed of the two. Union Rags has a decent stamina pedigree, and is a superbly talented individual with a definite shot, while Paynter has a very good stamina pedigree, and has the speed to go all the way on the engine. My long shot is Five Sixteen. Excellent stamina influences, and enough speed to stay relatively close early.
In the last 10 Belmont runnings only 3 runners have won from far back, 1 won gate to wire, and 6 came from mid pack or closer. Of all the winners, only Summer Bird was as much as 5 lengths behind at the 10 furlong marker. Most of the rest were on the lead by that time, or were no more than 1.5 lengths behind.
If Paynter gets away with an uncontested lead (like Da Tara) he could steal it all. I’ll Have Another is the one to beat. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the additional yardage. Dullahan with be closing late and just might get there.

Bill
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zinn21 · 3rd Year Sire Joined: 31 Jan 2005 Posts: 3306

Bill, good analysis. Union Rags is the question mark horse for me. He was my winter Derby pick. He has tremendous talent but can he get the distance? No question he loves the Belmont surface. If I'll Have Another looks as good as he did in Preakness Post Parade he will be tough to beat, IMHO..

ElPrado · Posted: Wed May 23, 2012 9:23 pm Post subject:

To me, Union Rags is showing to be more of a miler. He's petered out going farther and he's run out of excuses. He may get lucky and make 10 furlongs with enough galloping works, but he'll lose the speed that way. Keep him at 8 or 9 furlongs and let him win some money.

Aug27 · Maiden Special Weight Joined: 27 Aug 2008 Posts: 192

Seems to me Alpha has a superior long distance pedigree:
AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Fappiano, Nijinsky, Northern Dancer.
Add Alydar, Bold Ruler, Raise A Native, Key to the Mint etc and you have a horse that ought to relish the 12f at Belmont, assuming he can get his head into the game -- he appears to have some behavioral issues. I believe the inherent physical talent is there, but perhaps not the maturity or mental ... yet.

Des · Allowance Winner Joined: 27 Sep 2004 Posts: 433

I can smell the Jonny V Belmont double from " Rags to Riches" to Union Rags".....

madelyn · Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 9:12 am Post subject:

If that happens, maybe his nickname will change, from "Johnny V" to "The Ragman" Laughing

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DDT · Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:53 am Post subject:

I think you have it pretty much nailed Bill, and when looking at Paynter you must ask yourself why would Baffert run him in the GR1 SA Derby after a first out hand ride maiden win. He ran a credible 4th. He comes into the Belmont with a hand ride win on Preakness day at Pimlico, a race in which he ran a slightly faster mile than Bodemiester posted in the Preakness later in the day. I agree that he should play catch me if you can, and if left alone he could be long gone. I also think that a lot of people are misjudging Union Rags' lack of winning, but he does have excuses, and I have always liked him but in the end I believe I'll Have Another has a big, big chance to add the Belmont to his list of accomplishments. Good luck and safe return to all of you and all of them.

DDT

jagger · Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 6:42 pm Post subject: The Belmont

While I want to remain hopeful of a Triple Crown, I keep looking at the names of recent Belmont winners....Sarava, Da Tara, Birdstone, Summer Bird and Drosselmeyer and the hope seems more dim. And when I look at the horses that the aforementioned beat, the hope grows even more dim.

horse · Posted: Sun May 27, 2012 4:51 pm Post subject: Belmont Stakes ~ June 8, 2012

In this year's three year old crop of all comers in Grade 1, there are no rabbits remaining who can run on the lead for 10 much less 12 furlongs. In the first two jewels, IHA ran wide for 15 of the 19.5 furlongs, so being parked outside is a non issue. Barring a racing mishap or a blatant attempt to box him down on the rail (post positions are not established at this writing) while establishing fractions that would inhibit a snail, he should have an unencumbered trip and win in the Big Apple as if it were a walkover. Bring on all the fresh newcomers who aspire to upset him, none of which will be acknowledged at the Eclipse Award Ceremonies where I'll Have Another will be honored as the 2012 Triple Crown Winner and Horse of the Year.

jagger · Posted: Sun May 27, 2012 6:06 pm Post subject: IHA

Agree with Aug27 on his assessment of Alpha.