2010 Kentucky Derby 12

[Stevie Belmont]

Another year another Kentucky Derby—This is the first ThoroughbredZone's Kentucky Derby 12 list...There will be many changes as we get closer to Derby Day. Some will improve, and some will fade away.

Format- Horses name, Sire, dam-dam sire, month horse was foaled, and purchase price.


(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12. The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign. He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way. He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running. He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal. He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse. Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier. The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt. He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring | Next-San Felipe (GII) or Rebel (GII)

(2) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter. He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25 and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth. In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts. He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired. He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again. The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(4) Dave In Dixie – Dixie Union – Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000 – Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado. This is a horse that should do well as the races get longer. He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room. | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins. He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others. Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night. He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances. He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further. He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department. He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month. But still had to work a little in the race. Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37. His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line. As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be. He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII)

(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win. He is a perfect 4 for 4. His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park. He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward. The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-Rebel-Wood or UAE Derby

(8 Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem. He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance. Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier. D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII)

(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85. He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby Possible (GII)

(10) Tempted To Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse. He was an $18,000 purchase. He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine. He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him. He should be able to handle added distance. Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)

(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GII) in February at Santa Anita. He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely. No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old. Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible

(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) Private Purchase - The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm. The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home. He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect. For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal. Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI)


Knocking On The Door

Radiohead – winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve – sharp maiden winner at Gulfstream—ran mile in 1:35.87, Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), American Lion – 3rd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One - Won 1st time out at Gulfstream nicely, Super Saver - Waiting on 3-year-old debut, Noble’s Promise – 3-year-old debut in Rebel (GII), Uptowncharlybrown – 3rd in Sam Davis (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby next, Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara – El Camino Real Derby (GIII) winner possible for Lane’s End (GII),Aikenite – Will have to show improvement-next Blue Grass (GI), Kettle River – Was set to run the postponed Sham, Buddy’s Saint - Bad trip in FOY will try to bounce back, Vale of York – BC Juvy winner—connections have not committed to Derby, Backtalk - Louisiana (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – Working well for return in Rebel (GII), A Little Warm – 2nd to D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson (GII), Laus Deo – Count Fleet winner, Ron The Greek - 6th in Risen Star (GII), Drosselmeyer - 4th in Risen Star (GII)

[Stevie Belmont]

Lookin at Lucky stays on top at #1—Interactif, Awesome Act and Noble’s Promise debut this week. Sidney’s Candy zooms up to #3 after his San Felipe (GII) win—D’Funnybone, Dublin and Dave In Dixie drop off. These are the biggest changes this week. Not too many changes with Eskendereya, Rule, Tempted to Tapit, Discreetly Mine or Conveyance other then either dropping or staying put.

(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky stays on top this week. Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII). In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two. Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07. Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31. The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt. Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature. Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid. If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert. One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. | Next-Arkansas Derby (GI) or Wood Memorial (GI)

(2)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise debuts in the #2 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. In hindsight he should have been on the first ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky. ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well. He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface. Noble’s Promise could very well be on his way to a long rivalry with Lookin at Lucky that could last all year. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Moves up from #11 all the way to #3 this week. Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance. Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30. He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly. Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif. Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win. And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race. He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate. He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department. He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt. He has yet to race on dirt. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI) 4/3

(4)(2) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Drops down to #4—No Changes. Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – Stays put at #5—No Changes. The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins. He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others. Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night. He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances. He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further. He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 or Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(6)(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Stays put at #6. Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did. Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort. Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31. Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his race prior. He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire. The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort? He certainly had to work for the win. He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Wood Memorial (GI) Possible

(7)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdinis Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act debuts at #7 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after winning the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 6. A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt. He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow. Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer. He will see a tougher field next out. Awesome Act is aiming for the Wood Memorial (GI) on 4/3

(8 (-) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – Interactif debuts at #8 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII). Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short. He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slowepace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help. He looked good in the gallop, but never passed Sidney’s Candy. All in all he ran a nice race. It looks like he will get another chance next month. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(9)(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – Drops down to #9 this week. Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13. He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race. Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sydney’s Candy. He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sydney’s Candy’s lead. He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future. He will have to move forward in his next race. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(10)(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #10—No Changes. Another Bob Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win. He is a perfect 4 for 4—that makes him the only undefeated horse left on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park. He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward. The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile. Bob Baffert is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with him. | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) 3/28

(11)(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Drops down to #11—No Changes. Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85. He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(12)(10) Tempted to Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Drops down to # 12—No Changes. Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse. He was an $18,000 purchase. He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine. He stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted to Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him. He should be able to handle added distance. Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) or Florida Derby (GI)

Off Kentucky Derby 12 – D’Funnybone – Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI), Dave In Dixie – 6th in San Felipe (GII), Dublin – Next New York’s St. Patrick’s Day Parade

Knocking On Door

****

Schoolyard Dreams – Just missed winning Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Florida Derby (GI) Next, Miner’s Reserve – Next Florida Derby (GI), Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII)—American Lion – 4th in San Felipe (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara – Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Louisiana (GII), Illinois Derby (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)—Wood Memorial (GI) Next, A Little Warm – Louisiana Derby (GII) possible, Ron The Greek – Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - Next start undecided, Make Music For Me - Blue Grass Stakes (GI)

[Stevie Belmont]

These are the changes this week—Discreetly Mine and Tempted to Tapit are off. Endorsement and Mission Impaziple debut and #7 and #9— Conveyance drops from #8 to #11. The rest are pretty much the same, other than a change here and there. The Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby are on Saturday. Arkansas Derby and The Bluegrass will be on April 10. A complete new list will put out the week of April 10. And according to what happens this week, more changes will be made.
****

(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky still sitting pretty at #1. Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII). In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two. Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07. Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31. The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt. Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature. Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid. If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert. One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. A showdown is looming with Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). Lookin at Lucky does not have to win this race. Two of Bob Baffert’s other Kentucky Derby winning horses, Real Quiet and Silver Charm both used the Santa Anita Derby (GI) as their final prep before the Kentucky Derby—they both finished 2nd. | Next-Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(2)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky. ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well. He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance. Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30. He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly. Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif. Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win. And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race. He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate. He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department. He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt. He has yet to race on dirt. He will face off against Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) in what should be a classic showdown. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(4)(4) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. It was a nice win, but not as easy as it looked. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter. He will face Awesome Act Wood Memorial (GI). | Next-Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) –Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did. Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort. Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31. Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race. He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire. The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort? He certainly had to work for the win. He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)

(6)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt in the Gotham (GIII). He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow. Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer. Awesome Act will face off against Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI). The Wood Memorial should give us a good gauge on how good these two colts are. | Next- Wood Memorial (GI)

(7)(-) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement debuts at #7 after showing up on the scene with a huge effort to win the Sunland Derby (GIII) over heavy favorite Conveyance. Endorsement was making only his 4th career start, and it was his first in graded stakes competition. Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park. The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge win over a horse that was expected to win. The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away. The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46. It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement. He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions. 3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is. If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that could mean good things at Churchill Downs. He has a nice stalking style. Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby

(8 (7) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII). Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short. He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help. He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy. All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)

(9)(-) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand. Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time. He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII). The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will. Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race. Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win. A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed. A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32. Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?

(10)(11) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred –Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13. He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race. Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sidney’s Candy. He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sidney’s Candy’s lead. He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future. He will have to move forward in his next race. He will face Sidney’s Candy and Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(11)(8 Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement. Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly. The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46. Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late. The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more. Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing. Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert? The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well. Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby. I still think Mr. Baffert expected to win this race. Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?

(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI). Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion. Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win. Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds. Here is an interesting tid-bit—Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth. Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day. Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby. The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully. Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya. What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year. The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario. Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause. Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits. All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire. He did stay on to finish a game 3rd. The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth. He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time. Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances. His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now. The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break. He will come into the race well rested. Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end. If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), American Lion – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14 at a mile, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- Next Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Next Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Dave In Dixie – Next Illinois Derby (GIII)

[Stevie Belmont]

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Sidney’s Candy remains on top. Sidney’s Candy will prepare for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Sidney’s Candy is coming off an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he led every step of the way, and stopped the clock in an sharp 1:48 flat over the Pro-Ride surface. Sidney’s Candy will be making his first career start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby. Always a question when a horse is doing something for the first time, but there is nothing to indicate he won’t run well on it. Further improvement on dirt is expected. Speedy colt has a fast cruising speed, and is able to relax as he goes. He should see plenty of other speed in the Kentucky Derby, but if he runs his race, he could very well be the speed of the speed. He does things easy, and it’s not out of the question he can settle off the pace if need be. He will be making his 4th start off the layoff, and will be sitting on another big race. Distance is no concern at this point.

(2)(2) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya will be the probable post time favorite in this years Kentucky Derby, coming off back to back romps in the Fountain of Youth (GII) and Wood Memorial (GI) where he earned two big speed figures. The large son of Giant’s Causeway certainly looks the part. He is a big, strong muscular horse. Eskendereya was not challenged in either the Fountain of Youth (GII) or the Wood Memorial (GI), drawing off to win in a hand ride in the Wood. The pros are he is bred to go a mile and a quarter. He is talented, but has yet to see a real stiff pace, or better quality horses. The biggest question is whether his win in the Wood Memorial (GI) was too easy of race. He will get a test at Churchill Downs, but the talent to get it done is there.

(3)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky is coming off a tough trip in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he ran into some traffic issues turning for home. He finished a troubled third to Sidney’s Candy. If Lookin at Lucky had a clean trip it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy. The Santa Anita Derby (GI) was far from a must win situation for Lookin at Lucky. He locked up a spot in the Kentucky Derby a long time ago, and leads the pack in graded earnings. Lookin at Lucky is a very seasoned 3-year-old. He raced at two, and has progressed nicely leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He is still developing as a 3-year-old. He is a late May foal, which makes him one of the youngest horses in the race. Bob Baffert’s master plan has always been to get this horse to Kentucky ready for his best race. He may be light in the speed figure department, but makes that up with experience, and continuing maturation. He still may have not run his best race yet.

(4)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park. The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win. The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away. The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46. It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement. He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions. 3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is. If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs. He has a nice stalking style of running.

(5)(-) Line of David – Lion Heat – Emma’s Dilemma by Capote (Mar) Homebred — Line of David shows up on the scene after winning the Arkansas Derby (GI) in gate to wire fashion in his first career start on dirt. Line of David zipped right to the lead and set fractions of 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52 and stopped the clock in 1:49.37. He dug in and fended off the late surges of Super Saver and Dublin, who both made strong, sustained bids. Line of David’s win was a game win, and it also was a hard fought win. He will have three weeks to recover, and do it again. He will face other speed horses, and will have to go a bit further in the Kentucky Derby. He is improving at the right time, and he rattled off quick fractions early, and held on late to chalk up the Grade I win. He will face a tall task in the Kentucky Derby, but he ran a big one in the Arkansas Derby. The question is, will he digress or move forward?

(6)(-) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Super Saver making just his 2nd start of 2010, ran a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI). He sat off the pace and rallied in the stretch, just missing getting to the wire before Line of David. He did drift a bit late, but he ran a solid race. He also showed the important ability to sit off the pace. In his previous races, Super Saver ran right on or near the lead. The pros for Super Saver is he will be making his third start off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby, and he sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) last November. The negatives possibly can be, how much did the Arkansas Derby (GII) take out of him? Breeding indicates that going a mile and a quarter should be no issue, but the jury is still out. It will be a plus if can show the ability to rate again in the Kentucky Derby.

(7)(-) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — Dublin returns to the Kentucky Derby 12 after a game 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GI) to Line of David. Dublin made a prolonged rally in the middle of the track, but was unable to go by Super Saver and Line of David. He might not have gotten the win, but the race should set him up nicely for the Kentucky Derby, where he will be making his third start of 2010, and his third start into his current form cycle, which means who could very well move forward off this race. D. Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about having a horse ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. The question that still remains is, if he wants to go a mile and a quarter. If the pace scenario sets up the right way, and with his running style, he could make his presence felt in the late stages at Churchill Downs. Dublin might have the best chance to move forward off the Arkansas Derby of the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby.

(8 (9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impazible the Louisiana Derby (GII) winner was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time. He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII). The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby. Mission Impaziple is one of the harder horses to get a gauge on. His running style should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby. He will face a stiff test, and will have to go the mile and a quarter. Interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.

(9)(10) American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of WinStar Farm horses that will run in these years Kentucky Derby continue to grow. American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back. American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race. He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race. American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March. WinStar has another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby in the likes of American Lion. American Lion is a front-runner, and should be right up there in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby with the other speedy colts. Staying on all the way will be a tal task.

(10)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement. Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly. The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46. Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late. Conveyance is another one in this year’s Kentucky Derby that likes to roll anlong on the front end, and he will see plenty of others who run the same way. Conveyance has only lost once in his career. Should enter the Derby fit for bob Baffert, who can get one ready on Derby day. Staying the distance is the biggest concern, along with a possible hot pace sceanrio.

(11)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in the Florida Derby (GI). Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion. Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win. Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds. He has experience in running route races. He has run at a mile and an eighth three times. He should be far off the pace at Churchill, and make a long bid late. A fast pace should help him. Is he fast enough is the question?

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Another WinStar horse set for the Kentucky Derby. Rule set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits. Rule will enter the Kentucky Derby off a 6-week layoff. The one thing we know is he will be a fresh horse. How he runs off the layoff is a bit of an unknown. He has always shown the ability to run right up on, or near the lead, and in this year’s Kentucky Derby that could be a very crowded place to be. There should be plenty of other speed to deal with. If he can show the ability to rate, that could help his cause, but there is nothing to indicate he can, and the derby is not really the time to experiment. The distance will be his other issue.

****

The Lexington Stakes, The Derby Trial and The Withers are the three remaming races left that could have an impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby. One horse to mention is the speed ball Eightyfiveinafifty, who still clings to Kentucky Derby hopes. If he makes it in, he will make a fast pace even more insane. Hold on and get ready if he makes it. He will run in either The Derby Trial or the Withers.

[FOS]

hi Stevie Belmont

(5)(-) Line of David – Lion Heat – Emma’s Dilemma by Capote (Mar) Homebred — Line of David shows up on the scene after winning the Arkansas Derby (GI) in gate to wire fashion in his first career start on dirt. Line of David zipped right to the lead and set fractions of 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52 and stopped the clock in 1:49.37. ...

Thanks for sharing your Top 12 list.

Yes Line of David has earned a close look after the Arkansas Derby, but I'll again share my post Arkansa Derby thoughts; he's got talent...guts...tenacity...and no quit in him; BUT (based on what I've seen of him) I don't sense that the mile and quarter KyDerby is something he's best suited for. LODavid was all out and did prevail (last eighth in a rather pedestrian 12.85); but, it should be noted he carried a mere 118 pounds...whereas the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place finishers were toting 122. LODavid will pick up 8 pounds in the KyDerby...and have to carry 126 going the mile and a quarter.

Weight aside (for now), I get a sense (based on what I've seen of LODavid thus far) the mile and a quarter KyDerby will VERY likely be too much for him.

Who knows though, maybe LODavid will pull off a win in the KyDerby...BUT...All Things Considered (at this time anyway), I'd be VERY surprised (if not shocked) if he does. Bottom line...I wouldn't recommend (unless something changes drastically) wagering too many sheckels on LODavid, but I guess a couple is okay (based on one's pain threshold) .

Best to ya.

Respectfully

[Stevie Belmont]

I am still evaluating these horses.

I think running that same big race again might be a tall order in just a few weeks.

And he should find plenty of company on the front end.

All that being said—he was very game in winning.

He did gallop out pretty good—nothing past him.

I tend to agree the fianl furlong is a bit of a question mark however.

He went quick early, and came home not nearly as fast.

[Toccet02]

I am going with Line of David as "my" Derby horse.

[jagger]

What FOS said. LOD is NOT a 10 furlong horse.

[Toccet02]

What FOS said. LOD is NOT a 10 furlong horse.

I don't know if he can win, and surprises do happen -- last year, anyone?--but I'd LIKE to see him win. Only one I really feel like cheering for this year.

[jagger]

7 days til post, Stevie. Update coming soon?

[Stevie Belmont]

Final Kentucky Derby 12 List

Devil May Care Added In At #8

Off List— Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion


(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top. Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The absence Eskendereya has enhanced Sidney’s Candy’s chances of snagging top honors this Saturday, along with every other horse in the Kentucky Derby. He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed. He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time. He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one. Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed. A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp. A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely. The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race. Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite. He has a solid foundation and is battle tested. Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby. Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally. Connections have been here before and have won it before. He put in another nice work this morning. He has solid credentials. The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.

*(3)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March. He ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race. He has a running style that should suit him well in this year's Kentucky Derby. A solid pace should be on tap. The two other WinStar horse's Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead. Super Saver however can rate. Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter. *(Will Miss Derby With Injury)

(4)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby. Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one. He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI). He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby. Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question? Zito is happy with him.

(5)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David. That race served as a solid prep race for him. He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings. He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip. Another move forward is expected on Saturday. He is well bred to get mile a quarter. Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(6)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot. Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts. Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David. The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin. Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(7)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go. Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes. He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly. His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead. He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset. He could possibly turn for home with the lead. Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(8 (-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second. Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort. She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby. She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby. Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year. She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24. Distance should be no issue.

(9) (-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe. He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat. A slow pace also hurt his chances that day. He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances. There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs. He should not be one of those. The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(10)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20. He worked again on Aril 26. On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week. Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times. He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000. Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race. He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day. He also got cut up during the race. He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort. He has class.

(11)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII). He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24. The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start. He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development. He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect. He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win.

(12)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12. Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses. Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks. He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland. Stately Victor should move up on an off track. He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range. How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern. Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here. He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI). Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces. And his best races have come on turf. Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally. All indications are his chances should imrove on an off track. He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.