highest priced yearlings
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
I have a question that maybe Khaled or others may be able to address:
When you say that for most of these "Sale Toppers" it was a loss - was the purchaser of record the owner at the time the horse either failed to race or raced poorly or was a dud in the stud?
IF not then, I think you might have to consider that the person who paid that very high and very public price may have done very well in a subsequent private sale.....so while certainly the high priced yearling may have devalued over time I think it's not necessarily a given that the high bidder of record took that hit. Khaled you are presenting these 'facts' as proof of the fallacy of bidding that much for a horse while "history" - just not official "public" history - may be informing otherwise.
In other words I wonder if there is a history of "private" sales of these Sale Toppers, after their very public purchase - of which there is no public record - that underscore/support the notion of a perceived value in winning the battle for the highest bid yearling at say Keeneland's Auction.
When you say that for most of these "Sale Toppers" it was a loss - was the purchaser of record the owner at the time the horse either failed to race or raced poorly or was a dud in the stud?
IF not then, I think you might have to consider that the person who paid that very high and very public price may have done very well in a subsequent private sale.....so while certainly the high priced yearling may have devalued over time I think it's not necessarily a given that the high bidder of record took that hit. Khaled you are presenting these 'facts' as proof of the fallacy of bidding that much for a horse while "history" - just not official "public" history - may be informing otherwise.
In other words I wonder if there is a history of "private" sales of these Sale Toppers, after their very public purchase - of which there is no public record - that underscore/support the notion of a perceived value in winning the battle for the highest bid yearling at say Keeneland's Auction.
Hello Jellac, hello all,
If I understand you correctly, you are asking if the purchaser of these sale toppers fully takes the brunt of the failed racing or breeding prospect. Am I right?
If I understand you correctly, you must not have read my previous response (it was a bit long). I said that one of the strategies of Sangster who is possibly the most savy in buying high priced yearlings and making a huge profit in syndication after the yearlings racing career is over. His strategy was to sell off any horse as soon as it became apparent that the horse was not up to par. This was done to minimize his loss. He was able to recoup much of his investment through such deals. However, many failures are worth the risk to have a few successes because these success pay for all.
You also said that even if the yearling devalues over time, the buyer might not have taken the complete hit. Sure the brunt of the deal could have been lessened by subsequent private sales. Nonetheless if the yearling is devaluing he is not increasing in value, so he is a failure. That brings me back to the whole point of this thread: Are sale toppers more likely to be failures or successes?
My research shows that the sale toppers (I do not mean some of the expensive horses of a sale but the most expensive horse of the sale) are more often failures than successes. This result is highly significant statistically, though my sample size was not large. If I get some extra time, I will increase the sample size by including more sales and an larger time interval.
If anyone does this research with a larger sample size, I would really love to see the research. I don't care about anecdotal evidence because it is worth less than horse manure. I would love to see the results that shows the success/failure of sale toppers including the statistical analysis.
If I understand you correctly, you are asking if the purchaser of these sale toppers fully takes the brunt of the failed racing or breeding prospect. Am I right?
If I understand you correctly, you must not have read my previous response (it was a bit long). I said that one of the strategies of Sangster who is possibly the most savy in buying high priced yearlings and making a huge profit in syndication after the yearlings racing career is over. His strategy was to sell off any horse as soon as it became apparent that the horse was not up to par. This was done to minimize his loss. He was able to recoup much of his investment through such deals. However, many failures are worth the risk to have a few successes because these success pay for all.
You also said that even if the yearling devalues over time, the buyer might not have taken the complete hit. Sure the brunt of the deal could have been lessened by subsequent private sales. Nonetheless if the yearling is devaluing he is not increasing in value, so he is a failure. That brings me back to the whole point of this thread: Are sale toppers more likely to be failures or successes?
My research shows that the sale toppers (I do not mean some of the expensive horses of a sale but the most expensive horse of the sale) are more often failures than successes. This result is highly significant statistically, though my sample size was not large. If I get some extra time, I will increase the sample size by including more sales and an larger time interval.
If anyone does this research with a larger sample size, I would really love to see the research. I don't care about anecdotal evidence because it is worth less than horse manure. I would love to see the results that shows the success/failure of sale toppers including the statistical analysis.
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louis finochio
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The Godolphin Stable sells the bloodstock that it purchases if they have failed on the racetrack.
I know they dont resell their TB to recoup their initial investment, as the GS has deep pockets.
I would like to research their bloodstock and see if any of their castoffs have produced black type performers.
This would become a researchers dream, like looking for a needle in the haystack.
I know they dont resell their TB to recoup their initial investment, as the GS has deep pockets.
I would like to research their bloodstock and see if any of their castoffs have produced black type performers.
This would become a researchers dream, like looking for a needle in the haystack.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
hi onalimb
You ask..."I like to hear of stories that the buyer bought a horse for low dollars and made alot, now thats a hard workers dream. ANY good examples..."
How about a $17,500 yearling-sales purchase...that went on to become the ONLY undefeated USA triple crown winner?
You might agree...not bad. Seattle Slew was a MONSTER.
Respectfully
You ask..."I like to hear of stories that the buyer bought a horse for low dollars and made alot, now thats a hard workers dream. ANY good examples..."
How about a $17,500 yearling-sales purchase...that went on to become the ONLY undefeated USA triple crown winner?
You might agree...not bad. Seattle Slew was a MONSTER.
Respectfully
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louis finochio
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Seattle Slew was a bargain at 17,500. Mickey and Karen Taylor will never forget that grand slam home run for the rest of their lives.
Its the small breeders dream to beat the big boys on broadway, as the example of SS will live on forever.
Congrats again to Mickey and Karen Taylor, as your dream came true.
Its the small breeders dream to beat the big boys on broadway, as the example of SS will live on forever.
Congrats again to Mickey and Karen Taylor, as your dream came true.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Khaled wrote:My research shows that the sale toppers (I do not mean some of the expensive horses of a sale but the most expensive horse of the sale) are more often failures than successes.
I'm sure that you're right, and that "sales toppers are more often failures than successes," but this seems to me like a fairly trivial result. "more often failures than successes" seems like it should apply to thoroughbreds in general, even ones who go through the sales.
Perhaps a more meaningful measure would be finding the correlation between the expectation value of (racing earnings + value as bloodstock) and the yearling sales price (everything adjusted for inflation).
Nerd wrote:I'm sure that you're right, and that "sales toppers are more often failures than successes," but this seems to me like a fairly trivial result. "more often failures than successes" seems like it should apply to thoroughbreds in general, even ones who go through the sales.
Perhaps a more meaningful measure would be finding the correlation between the expectation value of (racing earnings + value as bloodstock) and the yearling sales price (everything adjusted for inflation).
sure more detailed research would be more revealing and more time consuming. I thought of sales toppers to keep the analysis simple and this research gives information on more than horse sales. My friend is an economist and was talking about the economics of auctions. This got me thinking about the phschological and economical aspects of auctions and the possible hypotheses behind sale topper purchases.
A regression with race earnings plus stallion or mare syndication and yearling price would be interesting to determine the shape of the relationship. I would guess that the relationship would be sigmodial. When I get some time, I'll calculate this. I'll need to first figure out the sampling methology then find the sales results.
Does anyone know how to get a hold of complete sales results for yearling sales and 2 year olds in training sales for the last 20 years?
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louis finochio
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It took me 5 years to complete my research on "TB Nicking Patterns"
In the late 79 my reasearch was finished, I had the patience and determination that my research would be helpful to breeders world wide.
If you dont have patience you will never finish your project.
Go for it Khaled, as it will be very worth your time and effort.
In the late 79 my reasearch was finished, I had the patience and determination that my research would be helpful to breeders world wide.
If you dont have patience you will never finish your project.
Go for it Khaled, as it will be very worth your time and effort.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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st. louis kid
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The point is always missed that to the buyers of these high priced horses the money is chump change, they don't give it a second thought. Godolphin spending 5 million is like you and i spending a 50 dollars for a horse based on their net worth. They make more in one day on interest than the purchase price.
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louis finochio
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