Pletcher gets World Record 2yo

[austique]

Magnier stares him down and says "Don't screw him up!"

[ZiaLand]

Wow! I wish Pletcher well with the new addition to his stable. He's a great trainer, but what a responsibility. I'm sure this colt is going to be in the spotlight and every move and decision will be scrutinized and second-guessed.

Not a position I'd care to be in.

Laurie

[FOS]

hi austique

Magnier stares (trainer Todd Pletcher) down and says "Don't screw (our $16mil purchase) up!"

Pletcher's response ( in his own mind anyway) might have been something like 'I could never screw up as badly as you did already'

Respectfully

[George William Smith]

Excuse my ignornance, but do they do muscle biopsies on 2yo's in training to determine their fast twitch ratios.

Seems a no brainer to me that a colt that can go 9.80 has to have an incredibly high percentage of Fast Twitch A muscle fibers and hence will not get much more than a mile unless put in a wheel barrow and haulted across the line by the trainer on one side and the jockey on the other and maybe the groom pointing the way.

[llbean]

hi austique

Magnier stares (trainer Todd Pletcher) down and says "Don't screw (our $16mil purchase) up!"

Pletcher's response ( in his own mind anyway) might have been something like 'I could never screw up as badly as you did already'

Respectfully

I dunno FOS; has any other 2YO in Thoroughbred History ever run 1f in 9.80? (I know there aren't any races that short but considering how easily he evidently did it, it could be very significant...)

Even a top QH would have a real hard time going that fast, I reckon...

Pedigree Strength is probably less important when you have evidence the horse can run, in my opinion, and it's also notable that the Forestry Colt has a very nice VGS between Storm Cat and Unbridled of 5.36 close up and even though that's based only on 1 G1W and thus could pretty easily be the result of old fashioned chance according to General Statistical Principles; it's notable that this 2x2 High VGS is backed up by a 2x3 cross of Storm Cat and Fappiano (the cross of which get a very nice VGS of 3.86).

This is based on 4 G1 Winners and VERY importantly is backed up by a nearly equally high GSWs Based VGS of 3.46 based on 12 GSWs (this result has big enough a sample size and Positive Enough a Score that it has a VERY high probability of Statistical Significance).

Also it is interesting how the colt fits Michael Power's definition of a "Modified Hybrid" as his sire was inbred to Bold Ruler, his dam to In Reality (Thus he's a hybrid according to a livestock definition of the term), AND the colt himself is inbred to Dr Fager (thus making him a MODIFIED hybrid according to Michael Powers, who believed the pattern advantageous because it can give you a "Best of Both Worlds" Scenario where the advantageous of hybridation and inbreeding are combined).

Anyway, I've seen some better peds from a VGS perspective (Ghostzapper being the best example I've found thus far of a pedigree in terms of it's VGSs) and it's not like the Forestry Colt was the only colt at auction his year who is a modified hybrid...

It's just that his performance in the sprint showcase thing was fast enough to give one (possibly false) hope that the positives in his pedigree "Clicked" like butter...

Soundness may be a concern, however...

BTW, it's good they gave the horse to Pletcher and not to Biancone (who has made some major mistakes with prominent horses in my opinion).

-llbean

[llbean]

Excuse my ignornance, but do they do muscle biopsies on 2yo's in training to determine their fast twitch ratios.

Seems a no brainer to me that a colt that can go 9.80 has to have an incredibly high percentage of Fast Twitch A muscle fibers and hence will not get much more than a mile unless put in a wheel barrow and haulted across the line by the trainer on one side and the jockey on the other and maybe the groom pointing the way.

That would take the same kind of brains it would take to test the Genetics of a Yearling to see what % of it's genes came from which Grandparents and Great-Grandparents...

In other words, it would take a kind of brains auction buyers are lacking in at this time.

Seems a no brainer to me that a colt that can go 9.80 has to have an incredibly high percentage of Fast Twitch A muscle fibers

That sure is reasonable.

Still, how do we explain that witnesses report the horse did it easily and with a long stride? (Mass Delusion, perhaps?)

-llbean

[HR LLC]

I am sure pepole have watched this workout but here is the link to it again. The work was really smooth and it doesnt look like his feet ever touched the ground. Nevertheless, it does not mean he will be a champion or even break his maiden

http://fasigtipton.sitespace.com/default.asp?p=4

[Heidilady]

I just hope we get to see him run. I hate it when they for one reason or another never even get there. Calling Mr Sekiguchi....

[LSB]

I just hope we get to see him run. I hate it when they for one reason or another never even get there. Calling Mr Sekiguchi....

While I know it's fashionable here to display sarcasm with regard to all high-priced TBs, I'd like to point out that Mr. Sekiguchi has made one start so far, placing 2nd in a MSW. He is now working toward his second start.

[Sysonby]

I just hope we get to see him run. I hate it when they for one reason or another never even get there. Calling Mr Sekiguchi....

While I know it's fashionable here to display sarcasm with regard to all high-priced TBs, I'd like to point out that Mr. Sekiguchi has made one start so far, placing 2nd in a MSW. He is now working toward his second start.

Yeah, I was there that day. There was a lot of muttering around the walking ring about his price while he was being saddled but the consensus after the race was "Wow that sucker can actually run a little."

Did FuPeg win his first start? I don't remember any more now.

[roving boy]

I think Fu Peg lost his first start to a pretty good (and expensive) little horse named David Copperfield.

[FOS]

hi llbean

Pedigree Strength is probably less important when you have evidence the horse can run, in my opinion...

Run? When and how far? I ask, if you hope to race and go on at the HIGHEST level (as a 3-yo)...going a mile and an eighth (and beyond) versus the biggest of the big dogs...and you could choose your weapon...would it be a son of Forestry that in February (as a two year-old in training) worked a brilliant eighth in 9 4/5 seconds and (in all fairness) arguably galloped out impressively?

Consider an opposite example (to brilliant early speed)...for instance, when Peace Rules sold as a non-select 2-year-old in training, he worked a quarter in the 23 range (if I recall correctly) and brought approx $35k.

He attracted little attention to himself...but proved to be a Very nice 2-yo and developed into a TOP class three and four-year-old, despite his rather uninspiring early works (as a 2-yo in training). He confirmed his brilliance (particularly at a mile and an eighth, winning both the G1 Bluegrass and the G1 Haskell as a 3-yo)...and also placed in both the G1 Ky Derby (at a mile and a quarter) and the G1 Travers (also at a mile and a quarter). As a 4-yo he annexed the 1 1/4 mile G1 Suburban H...and defeated the likes of Funny Cide and Saint Liam. He was a force to be reckoned with, but was arguably from humble beginnings.

Getting back to the $16mil Forestry colt...I believe it's fair to expect him to blow his opponents away if he races early, going short. I also suggest that Forestry has disappointed (so far anyway) as a sire of two turn classic-threat types. Certainly his books have been chock full of quality mares...so where does the problem lie?

At $16mil, I expect that it's fair to say that the dream with this colt is to excel and win at the highest level...and make a mark not only as a classic(s) contender, but also as a classic(s) winner. I have my doubts, and Forestry (as a sire) is a major culprit in feeding my doubts. Now, if you told me the brilliant work was by (for example) an A.P. Indy colt or a Dynaformer, I'd probably evaluate things differently...but he's not...he's by Forestry...hmmm.

Posting a 9 4/5 work (at the February Fasig sale) certainly supports the notion that the colt came to hand early and exposed unique brilliance...also early. But HUGE doubts linger (in my mind anyway) as to what he might accomplish down the road. He's by Forestry...and from my perspective he's not (yet, anyway) getting the kind that are proving to be classic(s) contenders. The Forestrys don't (in general) seem to be screaming for two turns, much less threatening to reign at the highest level where a mile and an eighth to a mile and a quarter are the focus of the big boys with classic(s) dreams. And what about a mile and a half Belmont...a Forestry? Hard to imagine.

All said...I wish the very best to the colt and his connections.

BTW, it's good they gave the horse to Pletcher and not to Biancone (who has made some major mistakes with prominent horses in my opinion).

I too believe that Pletcher is an excellent choice.

Respectfully

[Heidilady]

I just hope we get to see him run. I hate it when they for one reason or another never even get there. Calling Mr Sekiguchi....

While I know it's fashionable here to display sarcasm with regard to all high-priced TBs, I'd like to point out that Mr. Sekiguchi has made one start so far, placing 2nd in a MSW. He is now working toward his second start.

Yeah, I was there that day. There was a lot of muttering around the walking ring about his price while he was being saddled but the consensus after the race was "Wow that sucker can actually run a little."

Did FuPeg win his first start? I don't remember any more now.

Yeah but the point is this guy's a 3yo, still technically didn't break his maiden, and it's March now. If he ran well great and if he runs his socks of later, great. Would be lovely and I'd be happy for everybody in his connections and the horse as well. But he hasn't done it yet. So as of now I'm not being unfair to point out that he's still not actually won a race. The horse's the only one that can change that and admit it, before he ran weren't y'all going 'wow still hasn't gotten to race yet or even been named. What's taking so long?' Even if he wins a graded stakes in the next month or so somehow, he still took this long to get it together. I imagine though that if he stays sound that the Forestry colt will get to the races as a 2yo.

[Cree]

Just for discussion's sake...yes, there have been some other 2-year-olds to work that fast.
-Paragon Queen worked 9.7 seconds at the '04 Barretts March sale.
-Nineandfourfifths worked 9.4 seconds at the '01 Fasig-Tipton Texas sale.

I don't know if these are the only one's, but there are 2 examples.

[George William Smith]

Still, how do we explain that witnesses report the horse did it easily and with a long stride? (Mass Delusion, perhaps?)

-llbean

Ah, that is easy to explain. Sprinters of high quality always have long strides as that's how they go so fast. Distance runners good ones, that is, always have much shorter strides as economy of effort is much more important.

You are probably thinking of anecdotal material where the short, stocky guy runs as fast as heck when you were back at school and the tall lanky guy ran distance. The exact opposite is true in good athletes.


I watched the clip, didn't seem to be going all that easy to me...but very, very fast. Analagous to a 100m sprinter world class...which means if stretched out might stay as good for about 45 seconds, then a big drop off in effectiveness, hence he'll need a wheel barrow to get around the track if the race takes 90 seconds.