City Zip to Kentucky

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Mahubah
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City Zip to Kentucky

Postby Mahubah » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:36 am

City Zip (G1-winning half bro to Ghostzapper) is headed for Lane's End in Kentucky, where Thoroughbred Times and the Blood-Horse are both reporting he will stand for $15,000. He stood his first season last year for $7,500 in New York.
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Postby rocking e » Wed Nov 10, 2004 5:36 am

did he not go to stud in 2002 ?

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Wed Nov 10, 2004 7:49 am

Hi Mahubah

Respectfully...City Zip stood his first season in 2002, not 2003. He has yearlings.

I've seen a number of them and my impression is that "okay" might be a fair description...about average overall. Nothing more...nothing less...simply "okay."

I haven't seen a standout...but who knows...they may be out there.

As you referenced...it's probably the Ghostzapper thing...but I find it difficult to believe that the reported stud fee bump...from $7,500 to $15,000...has any "real" merit whatsoever.

Respectfully

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Postby Mahubah » Wed Nov 10, 2004 4:23 pm

You're right about the year of retirement -- should have double-checked instead of winging it. Sorry.

I thought he was a decent value on pedigree and performance for $7500, but Lane's End is taking a gamble (based mostly on Ghostzapper's performances, I think, as you surmised) that the horse will attract good business at double the fee despite being on the bubble commercially. That seems pretty risky given that Carson City, while a good sire himself, does not have the reputation of a sire of sires (at least not yet) and that City Zip was apparently not particularly attractive as a youngster ($9000 as a short yearling at KeeJan 99, compared to a sire average of $57,677 for Carson City yearlings that year). Of course, it could have just been small size; Carson City's a little guy himself, and you know how the market is about wanting big horses.

Anyone actually seen the horse and care to comment on his conformation?
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:05 pm

Hi Mahubah

As I recall (and you know how that can go sometimes) City Zip had check ligament surgery as a foal and it didn't heal very attractively...thus very LOW sales price.

By the way...what are your thoughts re: a horse that deadheats for a win (as City Zip did with Yonaguska in the G1 Hopeful S) but is advertised and marketed as winning the G1 race...without mention of the deadheat.

Yonaguska is also advertised as being a G1 winner (he deadheated with City Zip in the G1 Hopeful S). hmmm.

Other than the deadheat in the G1 Hopeful, neither horse won a G1 outright.

In parts of Europe (including England), historically a deadheat was credited in catalogues as 1/2 a race victory...examples: Yonaguska would have been credited with winning 5 1/2 races...City Zip would have been credited with winning 8 1/2 races.

Best to you.

Respectfully

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Joe
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Postby Joe » Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:17 pm

I always liked City Zip as being the only older horse I've ever seen survive Linda Rice.

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Mahubah
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Postby Mahubah » Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:57 am

The catalogs and stallion advertisements don't differentiate between a horse that wins a G1 race by five lengths laughing and one that wins because much the best horse in the race stumbled coming out of the gate and lost his rider. You just have to know the history and make your own judgments. Personally, I wouldn't rank a win in the Hopeful (which I feel has hung onto its G1 status based mostly on Saratoga's tradition) with a win in many other G1 races that usually attract deeper fields. As for a dead heat, a win's a win however you get it -- you still get a gold medal in the Olympics even if you tie for first with someone else, too.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis

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Postby Frank » Fri Nov 12, 2004 12:33 am

I was at Saratoga and wagered on Carson City in an allowance race going 5 1/2 furlongs . Not only was he an overlay on the "good" track, He was smoking! I saw City Zip on Simulcast and was wrong and impressed with the distance he could get. I was also wrong with the distance Ghostzapper could run. I'm sorry they shipped him out , Gus! Frank

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:14 am

Hi Mahubah

Yes...and in the Olympics you could be awarded a Gold Medal if the judges made an error in the math calculations and as a result an incorrect "winning score" was assigned...(chuckling).

As for horseracing...things happen during a race...stumbling...boxed in...lose-a-shoe...riders loses "stick" etc etc etc.

Excuses and explanations or racing luck (for better or worse) aside...reality is, it's all about who gets to the finish-line first.

If 2 get there at the same time...the term winner does not necessarily describe the result completely accurately. I found the "European" description more comprehensive. A 2 horse dead-heat?..each is considered to have won 1/2 a race.

Maybe not perfect...but certainly a unique recognition.

But that's not the way it is in North American racing...therefore it is incumbent upon us to "know the history" (as you wrote)...and judge accordingly.

Respectfully

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Mahubah
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Postby Mahubah » Fri Nov 12, 2004 3:43 am

If you're referring to the Paul Hamm controversy, yes the judges erred on the level of difficulty bit...but I had also heard that a deduction that could and probably should have been made from his rival's score was not, which if scored correctly would have kept the gold medal in Hamm's corner even with the level of difficulty error corrected. In any case, I've watched figure skating enough years to know that all too often a "no name" skater who turns in a brilliant routine will not get the marks he or she deserves while the big star of the moment can win even on a flawed or dull routine. Judging bias, mistakes, and incompetence have been around for a long time...so it all comes back, again, to knowing the history behind the victory. (Wonder how many "nose" victories or dead heats in the days before the photo finish camera were awarded because of the connections of a particular horse and not on the actual results? Placing judges were human too.)
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis

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Postby Cathy D » Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:41 am

I think City Zip's relocation is definitely a move to ride the Ghostbuster connection. Although a very talented racehorse, I have not been impressed by City Zip's yearlings. Seems to be throwing a mixed bag, and some that I saw sell for high prices relative to stud fee were not what I considered good individuals. I think throwing him into the ring in Kentucky with a fee hike is a mistake. In New York, he stands out, but Kentucky? I think he is definitely a risky proposition to breed to this year. . . maybe Lane's End knows something about the first crop two year olds, but I would think it is too early for them to have shown something in training.

Halo, have you seen or heard anything about them?

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Postby hurleynyc » Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:07 pm

Anecdotally, it seems some NY breeders sold City Zip babies at a reasonable profit, which is a happy phenomenon for new NY sires. He covered 120 mares first year, over 100 in second year, reportedly 83 mares in 3rd year (2004).

My guess is that the connections feel that a speedy sire, bred to a large number of mares, with many babies running in NY in restricted races with high purses = high likelihood of very good showing on the freshman sire charts.

It's probably a pretty savvy marketing strategy. When there are a large number of babies running, a solid marketing campaign, and high expectations (so babies placed with high $ successful trainers), it takes longer than a year or two to register on breeders if the sire is a serious flop. The bubble is a bit less of an issue.

As a wise commercial breeder who used to post on other boards used to say "follow the money." I don't think City Zip will be a serious flop, anyway. I think he'll be fine. I would note the lower than average number of live foals reported from mares bred.

Given the sophisticated marketing strategy, I think it will be a few years before the mist clears and we see whether he is worth the $15K or whether we were distracted by the results of exceptional opportunity.

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Postby hurleynyc » Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:14 pm

And I agree, Ghostzapper is another big legitimate marketing angle.