Bill from WA/George/Mahuba - Keeneland Purchases

[ageecee]

No fascination Opti mate just curious as to the price and why you are so secretive as to not tell. Do i want to buy the horse? UUhhh nnooooooo!

[Mahubah]

Think I'll let the experts on picking yearlings have the fun here. On pedigree alone, I might lean towards the American Chance yearling since that's a solid, proven sire, but I don't believe the Northern Dancer male line has really been the best cross for him. Yankee Victor over an Alleged mare is a classic speed-over-stamina cross; we'll see if it pans out. I was never all that crazy about High Yield as a racehorse, but that's just my opinion.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Mahubah

What was it that you didn't like about High Yield as a racehorse? 14 starts 4 wins (2 G1) 4 seconds (all in G1 races), 3 thirds (one of them in the G1 BC Juvenile). Earned $1,170,196. I respect your opinion and was just curious.

Bill

[Mahubah]

He was nice enough, but I never had the idea that he really ranked up there with the best members of his crop. He really had only one solid G1 win, this in the Blue Grass Stakes -- the Fountain of Youth should never have been a G1 to begin with as a prep for the Florida Derby, and in my opinion, for what it's worth, only the status of the Saratoga meet has kept the Hopeful from being downgraded to a G2 years ago; the fields have consistently been small and not all that impressive in recent years. While I'm not a great devotee of speed figures, his best Ragozin figure (in the Blue Grass) was only a 5-1/4, and I think this reflects my opinion that his best performances were against softer fields. Anyway, just my opinion.

[Bill from WA]

Thanks Mahubah. Valid reasons.

Bill

[Mahubah]

Let me flip the question on its head, Bill, and pick your brains a bit. What do you feel High Yield's most attractive qualities are as a young stallion -- performance, pedigree, conformation?

[halo]

We get over 100 yearlings thru out farm every year, nearly all are purchased out of the July and September sales. I think in the past 4 years we've had 1 High Yield, and that one couldnt run a step. So far he just hasnt produced really good individuals, and that will really hurt him in the sales ring. Not to mention they havent done much on the racetrack yet either. He himself was a very good productive 2 year old, and comes from the immediate family of champion 2 year old Forest Flower, so the fact that he isnt producing good 2 year olds may not bode well for him.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Mahubah

I have never seen High Yield in person, or talked in depth with anyone who has, so I can't really comment on his conformation. I think he was a pretty good race horse, compared to the overall crop that he competed against. I am not a super fan of Storm Cat sons, except perhaps Giant's Causeway, and maybe a couple of others. I would have thought High Yield would sire more precocious individuals than he has. As a matter of fact, I hadn't thought much about him one way or the other until this thread popped up. The comments I made about Opti-Mate's purchase were from a purely pedigree point of view, based on my conduit profile. Of course, there is a lot more to evaluating individuals than that.

Bill

[Opti-Mate]

American Chance's foals averaged $21K last year. I was very ready to go to $60K on this filly. She is just that kind. I stopped at $65K to watch her bring $105K. She could be a top class filly! Oh well, I'll be watching for her closely.

[bcassidy]

Mahubah---Why don't you like speed figures. It seems to me they would be the fairest way to compare apples to apples. Times are really irrelevant unless you consider track varient, weather conditions, trip factor, etc. These are just some of the factors considered when calculating the speed number. It does have the potential for human error but all things considered the speed number means more to me than most other points of data, especially when multiple race speed numbers are taken as a series. They can tell you an awful lot about the horse, peaked, about to peak, bounce, etc. Curious why you discount them. Do you gamble?

[Colinsb]

---Why don't you like speed figures. It seems to me they would be the fairest way to compare apples to apples.

Not over here they're not. 5f is not 5f at every course. With flat oval tracks perhaps you can compare speed figures but with the totally different track layouts we have no chance.

[Mahubah]

I didn't say I didn't like them, just that I wasn't a great devotee of them. There is no such thing as an entirely objective rating of a horse's performance; ultimately, a Beyer or Ragozin speed figure is a judgment call made by a highly experienced professional who has many years of experience in evaluating track conditions, quality of competition, etc. That's not to knock the figures; it's simply to point out that they are opinions, albeit opinions put out by men who are very good at what they do. The other problem is that a speed figure doesn't measure heart or class. Any number of people can recount seeing a mid-level claimer burn up the track one day to earn a flashy speed figure, only to fold later on like a cheap tent at slower speeds against classier opposition. And what of horses who, for some reason known only to their own equine minds, absolutely refuse to put themselves out more than the minimum needed to win? They don't earn the greatest of speed figures and seldom set track records, yet a class horse of this type -- a Buckpasser or an Alysheba -- can turn in a terrific effort when the need is there.

I do find speed figures of some use in evaluating talent; I just don't think they're the whole story. Of course, since I don't bet I'm not looking at them from a handicapping perspective anyway; I'm looking at them as more of a gauge (one of many) of what the horse was capable of and what its distance preferences might have been with the breeding shed in mind.