Yearling vs. Two-Year Old Sales: Facts and Statistics.

[dray33]

There is so much data, I want to get to it, and I don’t want to spend too much time rehashing the old discussion. My point remains: the sales data Michael posted was statistically kinder to buyers than any yearling sale in history. According to Michael’s own data, if buying only the fastest “breezers”, the sale could be viewed as an statistical success for racehorse buyers when compared to any other type of sale in our industry. To be clear, if you were the average buyer (by average I mean had no special ability to pick either yearlings or two year olds), and if you were to buy either the best or fastest stock, your best odds statistically to recover monies spent would be… First: fastest horses at the 2YO sale, Second: the 2YO sales in general, and Last: yearling sales, with the worst overall result to money spent ratio. Here’s another way to look at it… If you were to buy 10 horses from any sale, on average, the best performing ones would be First: fastest horses at the 2YO sale, Second: the 2YO sales in general, and Last: yearling sales. More data to follow. One last point Michael. Yes, the data I am about to presents both sides of the story. But remember, this all starts with the Greeder, ooops. I mean Breeder. From the Chicago Tribune…

“According to Larry Bramlage, the on-call veterinarian at the Triple Crown races, the average horse in the U.S. makes 21 lifetime starts. That's more starts than horses make in the major European racing nations (England, France and Ireland), Japan and Australia but, as Bramlage pointed out, "considerably less than the starts horses raced in the '50s, roughly half the number."

"We raise five times as many horses as we did then and we have roughly the same number of races," Bramlage said. "People try to get in where they can be competitive and horses are trained harder and compete harder.

"All of American society has moved from day-to-day competition to huge events. In racing, that's the Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup.

"A win in the fifth race is not something you're going to breed for. The foundation stallions of the thoroughbred breed were horses that were durable and productive campaigners. Where we are now is phenomenal performance and big events. The current stallion roster is popular because they get brilliant horses. All that goes into the decreased number of starts and horses being more fragile. The breed has evolved into a less durable horse."

Bramlage cited the 8-year-old gelding Perfect Drift, who finished third in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, as a throwback to the horses of yesteryear. Continuing to compete at the highest level, he has made 44 starts in his career, won 11 times, set a track record at Arlington and earned $4,679,185.

"That horse is phenomenal in his durability and the quality of performance," Bramlage said. "But Perfect Drift is not on everybody's tongue as he should be. We're looking to who's going to win [the Preakness].

"If you win a handful of the right races, you become so valuable a stallion commodity the owner can't pass up the opportunity to take you to the breeding shed. We'll use Bernardini (the 2006 Horse of the Year now standing at stud) as an example. … The quality of mares Bernardini would get [to breed] is by far the best when he's at the top of his game. If his star on the racetrack faded, the book of mares he gets may decline, which decreases his chances of being a very good stallion.

"We breed fillies with short careers to stallions who have short careers. Why should you expect longevity?"

So lets not ever lose fact of that though you may want to pile every fault in racing with the "bad" 2YO consignors, let's remember that at the apex, the highest point of damage originates from "greedy" breeders (they "touch" much more of the industry).

That’s about all I have to say about that. That is not, however the entire story. With full disclosure I will try and present a fair and balanced view comparing the sales.

Disclaimer: You could never, with any sale, ever, expect to recover more that what is spent. Except for the Adena Sale, no sale can claim a positive ROR (rate of return) when including expenses of training and upkeep. I have limited data on THAT sale, so that’s for another discussion.

As promised, I have been compiling/analyzing an exhaustive amount of information. Convinced I couldn't compile the appropriate volume of data alone, I enlisted the help of the Jockey Club Information Services, Custom Reports Division. I funded this research study myself, purely as an educational exercise. Granted, I am a bit of a data geek, but I am by no means an expert. Unfortunately by law, I cannot send the raw data in Excel format to you as I had hoped, the Jockey Club will not grant me the rights to distribute. Just PM me here at pedigreequery.com if you have any specific questions.

Here is The Jockey Club disclaimer regarding the information provided:

ATTENTION
DATA PROVIDED OR COMPILED BY THE JOCKEY CLUB INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC. (TJCIS) GENERALLY IS ACCURATE, BUT OCCASIONALLY ERRORS AND OMISSION OCCUR AS RESULT OF INCORRECT DATA RECEIVED BY OTHERS, MISTAKES IN PROCESSING AND OTHER CAUSES. THEREFORE, TJCIS MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OF WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING THOSE OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AS TO ANY MATTER WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION, PRODUCT, PROGRAM OR SERVICE FURNISHED HEREUNDER AND YOU THE BUYER ACCEPT ANY AND ALL SUCH INFORMATION, PRODUCTS, PROGRAMS, AND/OR SERVICES ON AN "AS IS" BASIS.

Data Set Parameters:

To accurately represent the data for horses of racing age, it is necessary to take yearlings of one year (example, 1999) and compare them to the two-year olds of the following year (example 2000), giving the yearlings time to become of racing age. The Jockey Club then compiled 3 full years of racing for each segment, allowing us to accumulate gross winnings on the track for each category. Because of this balanced approach, I cannot accurately represent compiled data for any sale beyond the 2005 two year old sales until next year, when Racing Results data balances the numbers fairly. We are up to FOALS of 2003 in this study.

Here is a list of the 17 individual data points delivered for both Yearlings and 2YO:

By foal year:
Offered
Sold
% sold
RNA
% RNA
Gross Sales

By Racing Success (for 3 years)
per year and cumulative:
Starters
Starts
Winners
Earnings NA
Earnings WW
Ave $ earned/Starter NA
Average Starts NA
Ave $ earned /Start
Black Type Wins
BT Earnings NA
BT Earnings WW

Inconsistencies:

The JC is unable to segregate certain type of data, and other types are simply not available at all (residual values, injuries). In drawing up cumulative sales data, the JC includes ALL yearlings and 2YO that sold in the database, regardless of sales type. This gives an increase in the perceived Average cost per horse sold. For the sake of accuracy we have used only the published data… not what I have extrapolated (the JC released public information on sales data). I’ll try and disclose any interesting issues as they come up.


I will break this into 2 types of analysis.

My post will try to analyze the yearling vs. 2YO sales statistically from a buyers perspective. The next will be yearling vs. 2 YO from the horses perspective. Basically, this post is how does the 2YO sales compare to yearling sales, and the effect on the horses between the two sales.

For the buyer:

If you buy thoroughbreds, which auction is statistically better to buy from, yearling or two year old?

Year by year dataset:
(Gross Sales by horse type divided by Worldwide Race Track Earnings by horse type over three years):


Yearlings of 2000:
Gross Sales: $ 519,443,808
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 385,123,990
Rate of return: .74

2 year olds of 2001:
Gross Sales: $ 127,133,855
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 149,329,512
Rate of return: 1.17

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2001:
Gross Sales: $ 473,044,553
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 357,492,910
Rate of return: .755

2 year olds of 2002:
Gross Sales: $ 130,015,650
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 161,112,111
Rate of return: 1.239

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2002:
Gross Sales: $ 390,714,442
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 354,820,477
Rate of return: .908

2 year olds of 2003:
Gross Sales: $ 139,729,164
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 177,665,324
Rate of return: 1.27

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2003:
Gross Sales: $ 425,251,514
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 339,086,388
Rate of return: .797

2 year olds of 2004:
Gross Sales: $ 175,347,558
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 156,962,604
Rate of return: .90

-------------------------------------------------------------------
incomplete data for this set (only 2 years of racing available):

Yearlings of 2004:
Gross Sales: $ 497,153,983
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 239,788,872
Rate of return so far: .482

2 year olds of 2005:
Gross Sales: $ 190,888,903
Gross RTE (3 years racing data cumulative): $ 125,234,608
Rate of return so far: .65

Note: This does not segregate the top 50 breezes as a data set.

The statistical conclusion first: When comparing the numbers of each sale in total, year by year, the two year old sale outperforms on ROR year after year, every year, without exception. Disclaimer: neither sale presents positive ROI (return on investment) when including expenses.

The numbers tell the story:

For every dollar spent on yearlings at auction, the average earns back between .74 - .90 cents. Exact average for years in study: ROR: .80 or 80 cents for every dollar spent.

For every dollar spent on 2YO at auction, the average earns back between .90 – 1.27 cents. Exact average ROR: 1.14 or $1.14 for every dollar spent.

The 2YO sale offers an approximate 20-35% statistical advantage over buying at yearling sales, every year, except for yearlings of 2003, where the statistical advantage for buying a 2YO was only about 10%.

Interesting factoid:
The best year to buy a yearling (2002) returned almost to the penny the same as the worst year for the 2 Year old sales (2004)… 90 cents.

Remember, this does not included data on residuals, the additional 8+ months of bills for yearlings, vet/injury/damage going through the sales process, expenses… et al.

If you buy only the fastest thoroughbreds at the 2YO sale, how does that compare to buying only the highest priced yearlings?

Quite simply, it doesn’t. The numbers are irrelevant, they do not compare. The Racing Returns on the highest priced yearlings are statistically inconsequential to forge comparative data.

If you buy only the fastest thoroughbreds at the 2YO sale, how does that compare to the yearling sales?

The Jockey club does not segregate regarding top priced yearlings or fastest breezed horses. One value of comparison is Black type, which we did segregate for this study. The other is Race returns. Empirically, we can draw the following conclusions: When comparing the numbers within the 2YO sale, buy buying the fastest 2YO's, the odds swing even further from the “general population”. As Michaels original Barretts data showed, nearly 27% (incorrectly put as 40-50) of all the fastest horses earned back on the track (including black type, not including Japan earnings or residuals or RNA’s). As for segregating black type data:

Year by year dataset:
(Black type earners divided by >number of horses offered and >number of horses sold at auction):


Yearlings of 2000:
Horses offered: 10,238
Number of horses sold: 7,678
Black type winners: 386
% by offered: 3.7%
% by sold: 5%

2 year olds of 2001:
Horses offered: 3,509
Number of horses sold: 2,332
Black type winners: 138
% by offered: 3.8%
% by sold: 5.9%

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2001:
Horses offered: 9,798
Number of horses sold: 6,970
Black type winners: 351
% by offered: 3.5%
% by sold: 5%

2 year olds of 2002:
Horses offered: 3,521
Number of horses sold: 2,308
Black type winners: 139
% by offered: 3.9%
% by sold: 6%


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2002:
Horses offered: 9,490
Number of horses sold: 6,946
Black type winners: 378
% by offered: 3.9%
% by sold: 5.4%


2 year olds of 2003:
Horses offered: 3,980
Number of horses sold: 2,668
Black type winners: 200
% by offered: 5%
% by sold: 7.4%


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yearlings of 2003:
Horses offered: 9,157
Number of horses sold: 6,926
Black type winners: 363
% by offered: 3.9%
% by sold: 5%


2 year olds of 2004:
Horses offered: 3,599
Number of horses sold: 2,644
Black type winners: 167
% by offered: 4.6%
% by sold: 6.3%

-------------------------------------------------------------------
incomplete data for this et (only 2 years of racing available):

Yearlings of 2004:
Horses offered: 9,757
Number of horses sold: 7,382
Black type winners: 315
% by offered: 3.2%
% by sold: 4.2%


2 year olds of 2005:
Horses offered: 3,958
Number of horses sold: 2,702
Black type winners: 170
% by offered: 4.2%
% by sold: 6%

The numbers tell the story:

Statistically, there has never been a year where yearling sales sold as many “black type horses” on average, than2YO sales. Ever. This presents some interesting analysis in the “About the horses” section.

Note: Because the fastest 2yo present more BT stakes horses by %, the brunt of the earnings that swings the ROR so positively must fall on the majority (non-stakes horses). This suggests that 2YO horses are raced longer (harder?) and more often (we also have data on starts and average, to follow). Meaning that though the fastest horses at the 2YO sale “pay” for buyers, the remaining horses pay the price, either in racing (or non-racing) career. I’ll put it another way. The horses that make it through the sale and race are represented in the race earnings pool. The UNR (unraced) are not. There is a typical “fall off” on horses that go through the sales ring:

Here is the start-by-start analysis to extrapolate further:

Average Start data:

Yearlings that sold through auction Average about 12-14 starts for 3 years of racing.

2YO’s that sold through auction Average about 14-15 starts for 3 years of racing.

More horses RNA at the 2YO sale. Yet they start on average more often than their Yearling counterparts. Why?

About the horses:

If the fastest 2YO are more likely to pull black type and earn more money, then the rest of the field must pick up the slack by running in smaller races for the sake of earning purse monies. It takes more races to win more money, so the 2YO horses are put through more before, during and after the sale than the yearling counterparts.

But it does reveal some interesting details if we separate the top ranks from the general population. On average, about 75% of all yearlings in the Yearling sales get sold (on average, about 25% of all yearlings are RNA).

On average, about 65% of all 2YO in the 2YO sales get sold (on average, about 35% of all yearlings are RNA).

So statistically, right now, if we started with 100 yearlings, after the yearling sale we would have about 75 horses. Move those 75 on to the 2YO sale, and after that sale we would be left with about 49 horses!

I have shown that though the fastest horses and the 2YO sales in general are statistically better for the buyer... the balance of horses pay the price. This is where Michael could best make his point. Not that the fastest horses are a waste of money, rather, that the rest of the 2YO sales population suffers. Of this I can offer very few disagreements. The sale is better for the buyer specifically because it is worse for the horses. Fact is fact. At the end of the process, you get to see a trained horse, saved a year, and still have the vet work to prove soundness.

Though statistically the numbers seem to present a better buying opportunity, the numbers show that the 2YO horses run through the ring are not fairing as well as the yearlings in many ways, and why the buyer must beware. This analysis is far from complete. Again, in an attempt at completeness and fairness, there are many nuances in the analysis, and why the 2yo vs. yearling data could be looked at differently to draw different conclusions.

Note: There are several factors to consider here. First is time, and the likelihood that an extra year of life (especially those in training) adds to the falloff in data, and second… if injury is the culprit, who is to blame? Breeding? Medications? The 2YO training process certainly attributes to some of the statistical anomalies.

But let me close this section with this: If it were up to me to buy to race, yearling or two year old… I would buy a 2YO only because I know who to trust (or think I do). I also would suggest to anyone buying at a 2YO sale, extensive vet work. So after all this, I would say that for the average buyer, the yearling sale is a “safer” investment.

Conclusion:
If you are buying quality, why not buy yearlings? That way, you control the "growth" and training from day one. Truth is, many horses SHOULD NOT be going through the 2YO sales, and are. It's a big risk for us all. Add to that the whole question about yearling "clean-ness" and you compound a bad issue. I buy 2YO because I know every detail I can about them, but the homework part is critical. Buy from only those you trust, yearling OR 2YO. Either way, odds are you will lose money. And good luck to you all, anyone who buys racehorses and is involved in this fantastic, frustrating, difficult business.

That’s a good first pass. Sorry for the delays, I have been insanely busy and couldn't devote the proper time to the data provided. More to follow…

[CA Michael]

Figures don't lie.

But liars figure.

[CA Michael]

OK dray, SHOW US HOW 50% OF THESE HORSES EARNED BLACK TYPE OR EARNED BACK THEIR SALES PRICE.

USE YOUR VOODOO MATH TO EDUCATE US:


MARCH, 1999 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10.0 PURELY EXCESSIVE 400,000---25,000---12-1
10.0 ROCK O (175,000)---38,000---15-3
10.1 MIDNIGHT ANGEL (120,000)---0---unraced
10.1 TOYO TIGER 750,000---0---unraced
10.1 STAND ON END 350,000---955,000 (JPN)--27-7
10.2 ISLAND ECHO (340,000)---280,000---sp-21-9
10.2 AZUMA VALE 50,000---0---unraced
10.2 KARNAK 220,000---102,000---14-3
10.2 BELLA GAL 85,000---127,000---20-5
10.2 KINSHI STONE 170,000---577,000 JPN---sp 27-3
10.2 PAINT THE WORLD 75,000---0---unraced
10.2 QUEENIE BELLE 130,000---625,000---G2 SW 22-6
10.2 PLATINUM CAT 145,000---6,000---4-0
10.2 ALL IN A DAY'S WORK 80,000---2,200---unplaced
10.3 QUEEN EXCESS 65,000---11,000---7-1
10.3 HATHEIR 115,000---17,000---19- 2
10.3 CAHOOTIN 175,000---69,000---54-10
10.3 DAVID COPPERFIELD 325,000---562,000---G3 SW 18-6
10.3 FRED CARSON (50,000)---4,000---2-0
10.3 EASY ACTION 300,000---150,000---sp 16-4

21.6 MOROCCO 2,000,000---134,000---16-4
21.6 EAGLE CAFE 375,000---4,200,000(JPN)---SW 44-5
21.7 TWOSPECIAL 350,000---320,000 (JPN)---40-2
21.7 TOSEN AHKI 300,000---69,000 (JPN)---9-0
21.8 THEORIA 250,000---133,000 (JPN)---17-1
21.8 MOLLY OR ME 125,000---77,000--SW 32-4
21.8 ROLL ON THUNDER 300,000---4,000---unplaced
22.0 WILD AMBITION 190,000---43,000---12-1
22.1 LEAD THE PACK (45,000)---142,000---39-6
22.2 SECRET LAUNCH 40,000---174,000---SW 23-5
22.3 ARCHER CITY SLEW (42,000)---194,000---G2 SW 13-3
22.4 SELZNICK 65,000---12,000---17-1

MARCH, 2000 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10.0 GOTHAM CITY 2,000,000---2,000---unplaced
10.0 BURNING BREEZE 120,000---51,000---6-1
10.0 COLORADO MISS 400,000---19,000---12-0
10.0 PINKY CHAMA 180,000---65,000 (JPN)---9-0
10.0 ROCKY'S CREW 55,000---109,000--sp 28-5
10.1 WATER LEAGUE (190,000)---820,000 (JPN)--- 20-6
10.1 EXQUISITE WOMAN 100,000---62,000---5-1
10.1 SWEEP THE WORLD (120,000)---12,000---2-0
10.2 FUN AND SUN 900,000---80,000---23-1
10.2 OUR FAMILY JEWELS 300,000---0---1-0

20.9 ARABIAN LIGHT 700,000---430,000---G2 SW 5-3
21.2 CAT'S PRIDE 250,000---325,000 (JPN)---23-3
21.5 DEMO MEMO 80,000---108,000---18-3
21.6 ROARING FORTIES 200,000---0---unraced
21.6 TOSHI THE BOSS 125,000---1,400,000 (JPN)---42-6
21.7 BRIEF MESSAGE 110,000---72,000---23-3
22.1 EARNESTLY ERNEST (120,000)---300---1-0
22.2 ROAD TO KISSES 60,000---70,000---53-3
22.3 LADY REDD 70,000---15,000---35-1


MARCH, 2001 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10.0 AEROPOSTALE 700,000---23,000---7-0
10.0 IN STYLE AGAIN (385,000)---0---unraced
10.1 MYSTICAL ANGEL 255,000---0---unplaced
10.1 OFFICER 700,000---804,000---G1 SW 9-6
10.2 EXPECTED PROGRAM (170,000)---140,000---SW 19-4
10.2 MYSTICAL ANGEL above
10.2 SWEET SIPHON 135,000---4,000---11-0
10.2 JEDDAH HARBOR 425,000---10,000---2-0
10.2 FORBIDDEN DANCE (190,000)---25,000---14-1
10.3 BELONGSTOSPEED 40,000---50,000---11-2
10.3 HABIBTI 450,000---505,000---G1 SW 11-3
10.3 EVERY MOMENT 200,000---0---2-0
10.3 WILD CELEBRATION 125,000---59,000---12-2
10.3 OUR NEW RECRUIT 120,000---1,400,000---G1 SW 18-5
10.3 JUDGE OF CHARACTER 750,000---28,000---11-2
10.3 EL BAJO 75,000---35,000 (JPN)---4-0
10.3 WESTERN LOVE 65,000---35,000---16-1
10.3 CHEZ LA FEMME 150,000---35,000---16-1
10.3 TIZAGO 35,000---29,000---6-2
10.3 DO WHATS RIGHT 250,000---117,000---11-4
10.3 OUR NEW RECRUIT above
10.3 AFFIRM CAT 32,000---80,000---30-3

20.7 OFFICER above
21.2 MIZ PICKENS (290,000)---450---3-0
21.5 JUDGE OF CHARACTER above
21.8 MISSED YOU 130,000---10,000---9-0
21.9 UNCLE WHIZ 125,000---27,000---39-7
21.9 EVERY MOMENT above
21.9 EL BAJO above
21.9 LAST STAND 750,000---135,000---sp 29-5
22.0 FIRE PROOF 350,000---24,000---23-3
22.2 STORMINTHEWOODS 30,000---11,000---5-0

MARCH, 2002 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10.0 HITCHCOCK'S BEST 410,000---41,000---20/6
10.1 AT NIGHT 350,000---0---unraced
10.1 FIELD EMU 80,000---0---unraced
10.1 U AND I WIN 440,000---2,500---unraced
10.1 U AND I WIN above
10.2 ELAN 100,000---87,000---sp 8/2
10.2 HITCHCOCK'S BEST above
10.2 RAIJIN O 190,000---392,000 (JPN)---22-3
10.2 IONIA 50,000---94,000---sp 11-2
10.2 LASTING IMAGE (120,000)---84,000---23-4
10.2 JADE DAGGER 65,000---0---unraced
10.3 CUP OF COCO 130,000---23,000---6-1
10.3 KALOOKAN CAT 65,000---0---unraced
10.3 BUFFYTHECENTERFOLD (70,000)---530,000---G2 SW
10.3 GAIN GLORY 200,000---196,000 (JPN)--19-1
10.3 ANNABELLY 150,000---125,000---sp 16-3
10.3 CUP OF COCO above
10.3 PURE SWEEP 160,000---87,000---8-1
10.3 CYPRUS QUEST 30,000---0---unraced
10.3 TRICKS MER 170,000---106,000---sp 9-1
10.3 ATLANTIC OCEAN 1,900,000---680,000---G3 SW
10.4 WEST COAST GEE GEE 90,000---80,000---21-3
10.4 DEADLY WEAPON 65,000---49,000---20-2
10.4 SPIRIT RUN 175,000---70,000---6-2
10.4 REMO 175,000---118,000---17-2
10.4 GOAL 600,000---45,000---24-4
10.4 FRIENDLY MIKE 250,000---64,000---8-1
10.4 AT NIGHT above
10.4 COUNT MIDNIGHT (385,000)---0---unraced
10.4 JADE DAGGER above
10.4 KILLER WAVE 110,000---50,000 (JPN)---12-0
10.4 MAJOR IDEA 185,000---207,000---SW 13-4
10.4 GYPSY SOUL 170,000---0---unraced

21.6 HONEST ANSWER 600,000---182,000---sp 16-3
21.7 PURE SWEET above
21.8 ALL TALK 120,000---38,000---9-1
21.8 ATLANTIC OCEAN above
21.9 ONE TWO PUNCH 90,000---130,000---34-4
22.0 JONES TALE 280,000---98,000---19-1
22.0 ELAN above
22.0 J K PEGASUS 250,000---220,000 (JPN)---19-1
22.0 COMPANY OF MARY (115,000)---50,000---18-2
22.2 RESTRICTIONS APPLY 75,000---80,000---22-6
22.5 MATIKANEHINOGOTOSI 210,000---155,000 (JPN)---12-2


MARCH, 2003 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10.1 GOLDEN SEDUCTRESS (140,000)---6,300---5-0
10.1 FASHION GIRL 500,000---130,000---SW 15-3
10.1 UNCLE LEE SAM 700,000---370,000 (JPN)--12-3
10.1 DIXIE HIGH 85,000---125,000---SW 6-2
10.1 PAPA TO KINZIE (160,000)---111,000---sp 8-3
10.2 PARK AVENUE LADY (85,000)---0---unraced
10.2 MIGHTY STORM 110,000---0---unraced
10.2 LADY DEATHSTRIKE (70,000)---12,000---9-0
10.2 DIAMOND FURY 2,700,000---81,000---21-3
10.2 PHANTOM MIST 215,000---310,000 (JPN)---16-2
10.2 VICTORY GIRL (42,000)---60,000---11-3
10.2 PLATINUM PRINCESS 220,000---186,000---18-6
10.2 WORLD DON 40,000---240,000 (JPN)---21-2
10.2 CALIFORNIA HEART 300,000---22,000---1-1
10.0 DIXIE HIGH above
10.1 SURF 85,000---0---unraced
10.1 MARYANNCAN (175,000)---15,000---4-1
10.2 MAJESTIC LAKE 300,000---4,500---3-0
10.2 KINSHI TIGER 85,000---75,000 (JPN)---15-1
10.2 ANTONIO MAGNUM 85,000---581,000 (JPN)---8-3
10.2 GRAY SAPPHIRE 180,000---0---unraced
10.2 COWBOYCOMESTOTOWN 60,000---20,000---10-1
10.2 SPREAD SMILE 210,000---250,000 (JPN)---8-3

21.1 FASHION GIRL above
21.5 UNCLE LEE SAM above
21.6 HOUSE OF FORTUNE 125,000---990,000---G2 SW 22-8
21.6 DIAMOND FURY above
21.6 ALL AGLOW 100,000---55,000---17-2
21.7 CALIFORNIA HEART above
21.8 LADY DEATHSTRIKE above
21.8 GINSTONE 130,000---21,000---15-2
21.9 DANON VICTORY 400,000---145,000 (JPN)---7-2
22.3 R. J.'s QUEST (40,000)---15,000---9-1
22.4 ABSOLUTE NECTAR (37,000)---100,000---sp 13-3
22.5 GERONIMO JOE (23,000)---20,000---15-2
22.6 THAT'S AN OUTRAGE (40,000)---159,000---21-4
22.6 WILD CARIBE 30,000---42,000---24-2
22.7 BLAIRS ROARIN STAR 50,000---155,000---17-4
22.8 NUMBER JUAN (37,000)---135,000---21-2


MARCH, 2004 Barretts 2yo in training sale

09.7 PARAGON QUEEN 450,000---85,000---7-1
10.0 DRAGON ARROW 250,000---302,000 (JPN)---14-2
10.0 SHOULD BE ROYALTY 600,000---36,000---2-1
10.1 I AM LEE SAM 300,000---230,000 (JPN)---11-2
10.1 ZAIN LASS 150,000---32,000---8-0
10.1 PARAGON QUEEN above
10.1 SHOULD BE ROYATLY above
10.2 DUBAI ESCAPADE 2,000,000---427,000---G1 SW 8-6
10.2 LEGENDS OR ANGEL 35,000---3,800---3-0
10.2 BELLA BANISSA 100,000---200,000---15-4
10.2 SWISSLE STICK 600,000---71,000---22-1
10.2 SMOOVE 350,000---46,000---7-1
10.2 BEAUTY UNBRIDLED 130,000---0---unraced
10.2 NANCYLAND (60,000)---12,000---2-1
10.2 GRASS WAVE 120,000---65,000 (JPN)---5-1
10.2 MOUNTAIN RESCUE 80,000---0---unraced
10.2 CAT BE QUICK 250,000---5,000---2-0
10.2 GOTTA HAVE FAITH (25,000)---0---unraced
10.2 SUREFIRE SUCCESS 155,000---26,000---6-1
10.2 DEPUTY KRIS 450,000---21,000---9-3
10.3 WILDCAT RIDGE 500,000---0---unraced
10.3 JIM'S SMOKIN PINOT 500,000---20,000---4-0
10.3 BERNSTEIN'S BABE 125,000---100,000---12-1

21.0 SWISSLE STICK above
21.1 WILDCAT RIDGE above
21.3 BELLA BANISSA above
21.4 BERNSTEIN'S BABE above
21.5 NORTHERN MISCHIEF 160,000---123,000---G1 sp 1-2
21.6 SHE'S SALTY 55,000---45,000---5-1
21.6 SEEKING THE TOUCH 220,000---21,000---5-1
21.6 DANCE THIEF 180,000---34,000---5-0
21.6 ENDLESS DREAM 375,000---15,000---5-l

MARCH, 2005 Barretts 2yo in training sale

09.8 RIVER'S PRAYER (180,000)---312.000---SW 11-4
09.9 STEPPIN OUT ROSE (240,000)---79,000---10-3
09.9 HENNY HUGHES (370,000)---1,125,000---G1 SW 10-6
09.9 ONE'S NOT ENOUGH (120,000)---32,000---6-1
10.0 ENFORCEMENT 350,000---42,000---2-1
10.0 READY AND WAITING 150,000---40,000---10-2
10.0 SHEZA TRUE PISTOL 130,000---0
10.0 CINDAGO 900,000---100,000---3-2
10.0 TIGER ON THE LOVE 375,000---36,000---3-1
10.0 DUAL PROCESSOR 110,000---42,000 (JPN)---2-0
10.0 DANCE DAILY 600,000---185,000---G2 SW 10-4
10.0 LORD CLEAN SWEEP 55,000---31,000---6-1
10.0 UNIFICATION 750,000---189,000---6-2
10.0 INDIAN BREEZE (230,000)---130,000---SW 6-3
10.1 YAMAKATSU GRUMMAR 150,000---0 (JPN)---unraced
10.1 L. A. PHIL 150,000---10,000---5-0
10.1 PALMER PARK 100,000---0---unraced
10.1 CALAMITY JUNE 100,000---46,000---5-1
10.2 MY HONEY'S TRIPPIN 30,000---8,000---6-1
10.2 AMERICAN INFLUENCE (100,000)---2,600---2-0
10.2 SEAM SEEKER (45,000)---122,000---SW 10-3
10.2 SWEETEST OF DREAMS 180,000---20,000---6-0
10.2 CASSIDY'S STAR 100,000---0---1-0
10.2 ITSAFFIRMATIVE 200,000---26,000---2-1

20.6 WHAT A SONG 1,900,000---180,000---G2 SW 3-3
20.8 BROTHER DEREK 275,000---1,600,000---G1 SW 16-6
21.1 GOTTHATFEELING 45,000
21.1 FAIRE LA BISE 160,000---14,000---11-1
21.1 POINT DETERMINED 750,000---400,000---G3 SW 11-3
21.1 INDIAN BREEZE above
21.2 CROWN ROSE above
21.3 QUEENLY WOMAN 175,000---0---unraced
21.3 KNIGHT'S COPY 80,000---21,000---6-1
21.3 SHAMROCK PLACE 50,000---1,000---2-0
21.3 SO BEWARNED 95,000---41,000---2-1
21.3 MUSIC AND MAGIC 135,000---7,800---3-0
21.2 FIGHTINTHECAT (65,000)---36,000---7-4
21.5 WILD FIT (240,000)---555,000---G1 SW 10-2
21.7 QUEENLY WOMAN above
21.7 BENGAL LORE 75,000---115,000---9-2
21.8 RAPTORA 23,000---8,700---6-0
22.0 BIG RIVER RULER 60,000---1,200---2-0
22.0 REQUEST GIVEN 55,000---31,000---9-1
34.4 PRESSTHEPACE (95,000)---20,000---4-1


MARCH, 2006 Barretts 2yo in training sale

10 REDHOTRHYTHM 60,000---11,000---3-1
10 BIG RED TATE 275,000
10 ANGEL EYED 140,000
10 UNDERCOVER ANGEL 700,000---3,000---1-0
10 CITY SNITCH (245,000)---31,000---2-1
10 SHADOW GROVE 75,000
10 MORE THAN A LADY 85,000---8,000---2-0
10 MR. NEGOTIATOR 210,000
10.1 COWTOWN CAT 1,400,000---188,000---G3 SW 5-2
10.1 MAGICAL BULL (65,000)
10.1 LAUNCH OUR STAR (40,000)
10.1 LOVELY LAGOON (75,000)
10.1 MAGIC LAND (140,000)
10.2 NOTIONAL 235,000---279,000---G2 SW 7-5
10.1 CASH INCLUDED 125,000---250,000---G1 SW 8-4
10.1 DAT'S DESPICABLE 150,000
10.2 LIQUIDITY 240,000---272,000---G2 sp 6-1
10.2 GO MALABAR GOLD (55,000)
10.2 SOUTH AFRICAN BABY 70,000---13,000---2-0
10.2 POINT BLAKE 600,000---15,000---6-0
10.2 INCLUDE A FRIEND (95,000)
10.2 KISSIN PARTY 100,000---50,000---9-1
10.2 GENUINE SPEED (65,000)
10.2 SPRY MAIDEN (90,000)
10.2 HOIST THE SAIL 100,000--- 400---1-0
10.2 SWEET AWAKENING 50,000
10.2 STEELIN 62,000
10.2 QUICK LITTLE MISS 40,000---286,000---SW 10-2
10.2 GOOD BAD BOY (45,000)
10.2 SAINTS CROWN 125,000
10.2 STREET AWAKENING (95,000)
10.2 ZADA BELLE 95,000---24,000---1-1
10.2 DESTIERRO 40,000
10.2 INCLUDE ME 27,000
10.2 DOMORON DOMORON (70,000)---400---1-1
10.2 ANOTHER BROTHER (20,000)---24,000---3-1
10.2 S G BEAT 110,000
10.2 QUERENCIA 180,000
10.2 HENNESSY'S HOPE 150,000
10.2 PERFECT TALE 62,000
10.2 SOUVENIR SLEW 75,000---0---1-0
10.2 MR. GRUFF 200,000

20.4 UNION SCALE 825,000
21 UPCOMING STORY 170,000---7,300---1-0
21 DISTORTED VIEW 140,000---40,000---11-1
21.1 FUTURE SEARCH 25,000
21.1 E.Z. WARRIOR 1,200,000---135,000---G3 SW 3-3
21.1 UNTOUCHED TALENT 500,000---244,000---G3 SW 4-2
21.1 DIRECT EXPOSURE 75,000---20,000---2-1
21.1 CODIO 350,000---2,400---1-0
21.1 THRU N' THRU 130,000---27,000---1-1
21.2 SWIFT CHARM 50,000
21.3 BEYOND THE RUN (235,000)---4,000---4-0
21.3 POINT BLAKE above
21.4 MA KA BETA 80,000
22 BRISCO N LOGAN (145,000)---25,000---5-1
22 RACEY ROMANCE (52,000)---2,700---6-0
22 MCDREAMIE 40,000
22.2 HOIST THE SAIL 100,000---400---1-0
22.4 ROSY WORLD 80,000
22.4 AMAZIN BLUE 55,000

[dray33]

Go look on your other thread. Trying to bury this thread wont change the facts.

[CA Michael]

Answer the question, if you dare:

"SHOW US HOW 50% OF THESE HORSES EARNED BLACK TYPE OR EARNED BACK ON THE TRACK THEIR SALES PRICE."

[dray33]

my bad, the number i said was 27%, but that is taking into account NA earnings an all. here is the post:

The Average of all 8 sales:
74 out of 273 or 27% of all the horses on you list were either stakes placed or earned enough to pay for the entire purchase price. Imagine for one moment, if you will, the RESIDUAL value of said animals? Can any yearling sale in history compare? Ever? Can you imagine if I calculated the real value of the RNA'd horses instead of putting in what the owners felt they deserved to get? Comparing it to yearling sales would be laughable. As a total: about 27% of every 2Yo sold over the past 8 years at Barretts produced numbers that were beneficial to those who bought the horse. I ask you to find another sales distribution methodology that comes close. Comes half. It doesn't exist. It is why buyers and sellers will continue to unite at the 2YO sales. They simply work... Giving buyers the best chance at success.

Sorry, the actual nubers is less. But, look at my new data and you will find the actual number for all 2YO sales is more, actually, on average, above the 1.0 number. DOUBLE what I posted!

Anyway, read it, like it, hate it, I am just posting it and not sending it to anyone. Enjoy (or dont).

[dray33]

Here's the point Michael: 50% was wrong: Averages far higher:

For every dollar spent on yearlings at auction, the average earns back between .74 - .90 cents. Exact average for years in study: ROR: .80 or 80 cents for every dollar spent.

For every dollar spent on 2YO at auction, the average earns back between .90 – 1.27 cents. Exact average ROR: 1.14 or $1.14 for every dollar spent.

The 2YO sale offers an approximate 20-35% statistical advantage over buying at yearling sales, every year, except for yearlings of 2003, where the statistical advantage for buying a 2YO was only about 10%.

Interesting factoid:
The best year to buy a yearling (2002) returned almost to the penny the same as the worst year for the 2 Year old sales (2004)… 90 cents.

Remember, this does not included data on residuals, the additional 8+ months of bills for yearlings, vet/injury/damage going through the sales process, expenses… et al.

[dray33]

Enjoy, for those who care to enjoy!

[CA Michael]

You have not answered the question dray.

Your post from 30 minutes ago stated "but even after showing you that nearly 50% of the horses from your first Barretts post either won black type or made back on the track what the owners paid...."

I even reposted the initial March information for you.

So PROVE YOUR CLAIM.

Not to do so will be an admission of your trespass with the TRUTH and immediately render the rest of your self serving diatribe meaningless.

[dray33]

Lik i said, made a mistake, the number was 27% taking out worldwide earnings. You can try and smoke the facts I am presenting, but too bad, I aint playing. The truth is, like you would NEVER answer, the 2YO sale is statistically a better bet than yearling. Remember? And so, I have presented the "why".

[CA Michael]

To paraphrase your partner in pinhooking crime, halo,

"Its hard to put any credence in your 2 year old figures when you cant even do them correctly."

[dray33]

Agreed. Let's not put creedence on either of our numbers.

[CA Michael]

Sorry, dray, I can't let you slide out of your misappropriation of truth that easily.

[dray33]

Read the post, get back to me. I let your many misappropriations slide. Tell me what you think.

[dray33]

After all your inaccuracies, I still read your posts. And commented. You never answered:

Michael: do you believe it is a better investment, statistically,
for a buyer to buy from a yearling sale or a 2 year old sale?

I answered it. Read the posts and see. I don't care about you hijacking this thread, because the data is up for all to see, just like yours is.

Try commenting on it.