FOS - What would you think?
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FOS - What would you think?
I have always followed your posts; insightful to say the least. Following your raves about Successful Appeal, what would you think re: commercial appeal if I took my filly, Punch N Lively to Successful Appeal? Is there sufficient pedigree similarity to his other winners to warrant the $6K fee? Punch N Lively is a beautiful 16.3 hh chestnut filly, lovely legs, very classic form, had a severe concussion injury to a hind cannon bone that stopped her from making the track during her 3 yr old year.....I sent her to Dixie Road this past year but the farm was in upheaval and I picked her up a few weeks later not in foal from her one cover....
Without trying to butt into FOS's show, this proposed mating is on a similar cross to three-time stakes winner Punch Appeal, who has Two Punch for her maternal grandsire. (No question Successful Appeal likes Mr. Prospector in his mares!) I think the presence of Counterpoint (by Count Fleet) as Punch n Lively's fourth damsire is also an interesting point since Successful Appeal has four crosses of Count Fleet, all through daughters, through his dam. 3x4 In Reality wouldn't bother me any. Question I would have is whether this filly would be accepted for SA's first Kentucky book (which I assume will be increasingly slanted towards the commercial market) since she is a maiden mare and her dam has a very limited produce record although she is a half sister to a G3 winner.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis
Hello Madelyn
Thanks for the kind words.
Your mare Punch N Lively...is very appealing for the obvious reasons. But I like her very much for a couple of other reasons also.
First of all (as Mahubah correctly pointed out)...all of Successful Appeal's stakes winners thus far show the presence of Mr. Prospector on the female side of the page.
And as we are all aware...Successful Appeal's brilliant multiple stakes-winning daughter Punch Appeal is no exception...as her dam's sire is Two Punch (by Mr. Prospector)...and as we are all aware, your filly is by a son of Two Punch.
Thus, a Succesful Appeal offspring out of Punch N Lively would be quite similarly bred to Punch Appeal.
But there is more that I like about your filly than simply that obvious similarity. Mahubah commented on the prospective In Reality cross (top and bottom) that would be evident if you choose to breed Punch N Lively to Successful Appeal...but I may feel more strongly about it than Mahubah does. I love the In Reality top and bottom that a Successful Appeal out of PNL would have as part of the "family tree."
This has been a very successful cross...Example: Glitterwoman (G1 winner and multimillionaire) is out of a Taylor's Falls (by In Reality) mare...furthermore, Glitterwoman is by a stallion that is out of an In Reality mare.
The prospective foal from Punch N Lively would be by Successful Appeal (a grandson of In Reality)...and the dam of Punch N Lively is by Believe It (a son of In Reality)...I love it.
There are plenty of signs of speed that would be exposed in this prospective foals pedigree...but I also like (very much) the fact that the second dam of PNL is by Le Fabuleux...a top class horse and quality source of stamina...sure to inspire hopes and dreams of classic potential in the minds of prospective buyers of a SA foal out of PNL. I believe that Le Fabuleux offsets (or maybe balances is a better word) the appearance of so much speed in this pedigree.
Mahubah raises the question...would your filly be "accepted" for SA's first Kentucky book. I don't have the benefit of a catalogue style pedigree in front of me (of Punch N Lively), but I assure you that Johnny Jones (Walmac) would recognize your filly as a tempting addition to SA's 2005 book.
I liked the fact that your mare (as you described her) is "16-3...lovely legs...very classy form." I assume that classy form means well-made...stands over some ground (not the neat compact type)...has some length...good neck which ties nicely into shoulder. If that is the case, I believe it is a very good physical type to consider for SA.
Her physical type coupled with the mix of speed and stamina that your filly's pedigree brings to the table...should work beautifully with the strongly made...16+HH...extremely athletic...handsome head and lovely eye...strong quarters and well-muscled physique that Successful Appeal brings to the table. He is a touch offset...but it seems your mare should put that concern to rest...regardless... most of the SA's that I have seen have very good bone and are quite correct. The fact that your mare has "lovely" legs should act as an insurance policy.
Jessi P mentioned that SA's stud fee is rumored to be $20k next year. Many prognosticators are guessing a similar number. I believe it will be in the $15k to $30k range. I think the bottom will be $15 no matter what.
How high it may go will depend on several things...will Successful Appeal be crowned as Leading Freshman Sire (very possible)...will SA be the Leading Juvenile Sire (he is now but that's a very tall order)...will he have another graded stakes-winner prior to setting the 2005 stud fee (very possible)...will his daughter Punch Appeal upset everybody's apple cart and win the BC Juvenile Fillies (and obviously be the 2 yo champion) maybe...who knows...again a tough order to fill).
Regardless...Johnny Jones is careful about setting fees...he'd usually rather err to the low side versus the high side. He is very aware that when a stallion hits a cold spell (and they all seem to)...it is less difficult (or chaotic) trying to fill a realistically-priced horse than one who was set on the "high" side to begin with. That being said...he knows he has the goods (right now anyway).
With regard to Mahubah's question...would your mare be accepted to SA's first Ky book? Walmac will quickly recognize that Punch N Lively is a very interesting candidate...I do not believe she would be ruled out as a possibility. But Walmac (Johnny Jones) also knows that they will have the opportunity to select from a very interesting group of mares if they set the stud fee correctly...they also know they have a stallion (in Successful Appeal) that has some breeding idiosyncracies (and concerns)...that they haven't quite figured out yet.
SA has very good libido and is quite fertile...but sometimes for no apparent reason he will simply refuse to breed. For that reason, some owners may ask that the names of their mares be removed from consideration (once they are apprised of the potential breeding concerns).
Is Punch N Lively good enough...maybe...maybe not...but due to the somewhat unique circumstances, she may make the cut...and (again) Walmac would recognize what she brings to the table.
Will a prospective foal by Successful Appeal out of Punch N Lively be commercially viable?
Consider this...Successful Appeal's stakes winning son Closing Argument was a $10,000 weanling and a $100k 2 y.o. His dam was blank (of black-type) for 2 generations (if I recall correctly).
Successful Appeal's brilliant multiple stakes-winning daughter Punch Appeal ran for a $40k tag...was not claimed...quickly became a multiple stakes-winner, and as recently as last week won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at a mile...basically in wire-to-wire fashion. She's worth a lot of money right now.
The top priced yearling at Keeneland this past Wednesday was a Successful Appeal filly out of a young mare that had not produced a winner yet. And there was no Mr. Prospector to be found anywhere on the page. The filly sold for $180,000.
Bottom line...if you get a "good one" a superstar pedigree is obviously not necessary...if you get one that is so-so or barely "vets"...it doesn't matter what the page looks like...it will not sell well. If you get a good one with a star-studded pedigree...the sky's the limit.
Your mare seems to be a perfect candidate for Successful Appeal...for many reasons...but would I recommend putting $20k (plus tax) into your mare at this time...No.
Had your mare been by a stakes-caliber daughter of K.O.Punch I might have given it the nod...or had she been by a more highly regarded son (or grandson) of Mr. Prospector (such as Two Punch or Crafty Prospector or Unbridled etc) I may have given the nod.
But the circumstances being what they are...I would recommend considering your mare for a 2005 breeding to Successful Appeal if he stands for $10,000 or less. Above that figure...I cannot recommend.
Breeding to a stallion when he is experiencing success is easy...but selecting and breeding to the stallion that will be the "hot" commodity when you'll be selling is not so easy.
Right now...it appears that there is no sire in North America that is more perfectly suited for Punch N Lively than Successful Appeal. But for over $10,000 I cannot recommend it.
If he goes on and year-in and year-out he has the same consistent and quality success that he is experiencing right now, his stud fee will sky rocket and $20,000 may sound "cheap" but I still believe that right now putting over $10,000 into Punch N Lively cannot be justified (and that's only if SA is the $10k stallion).
If that is not an option, I would not recommend committing to more than a $5,000 stud fee for your mare (right now). Get her off to a nice start...let her prove something...and then put the bigger stud fees in her when she shows you she's worthy of a step up.
If she had already produced a knockout foal...that may have been justification enough to take a "shot"...but for now, let her produce somethiong for you...evaluate the quality of the foal...then sit down and consider the options.
Regardless...if you decide to take the shot to Successful Appeal anyway...he is probably the perfect stallion for your mare (based on what you've indicated).
But be assured...there is a stallion out there right now standing for a very reasonable stud fee that may accomplish everything (or more) that Successful Appeal is accomplishing right now...that may fit your mare perfectly. The job is to find him.
We should discuss this further and see if we can come up with a quality "short list."
But whatever you decide...good luck always.
Respectfully
Thanks for the kind words.
Your mare Punch N Lively...is very appealing for the obvious reasons. But I like her very much for a couple of other reasons also.
First of all (as Mahubah correctly pointed out)...all of Successful Appeal's stakes winners thus far show the presence of Mr. Prospector on the female side of the page.
And as we are all aware...Successful Appeal's brilliant multiple stakes-winning daughter Punch Appeal is no exception...as her dam's sire is Two Punch (by Mr. Prospector)...and as we are all aware, your filly is by a son of Two Punch.
Thus, a Succesful Appeal offspring out of Punch N Lively would be quite similarly bred to Punch Appeal.
But there is more that I like about your filly than simply that obvious similarity. Mahubah commented on the prospective In Reality cross (top and bottom) that would be evident if you choose to breed Punch N Lively to Successful Appeal...but I may feel more strongly about it than Mahubah does. I love the In Reality top and bottom that a Successful Appeal out of PNL would have as part of the "family tree."
This has been a very successful cross...Example: Glitterwoman (G1 winner and multimillionaire) is out of a Taylor's Falls (by In Reality) mare...furthermore, Glitterwoman is by a stallion that is out of an In Reality mare.
The prospective foal from Punch N Lively would be by Successful Appeal (a grandson of In Reality)...and the dam of Punch N Lively is by Believe It (a son of In Reality)...I love it.
There are plenty of signs of speed that would be exposed in this prospective foals pedigree...but I also like (very much) the fact that the second dam of PNL is by Le Fabuleux...a top class horse and quality source of stamina...sure to inspire hopes and dreams of classic potential in the minds of prospective buyers of a SA foal out of PNL. I believe that Le Fabuleux offsets (or maybe balances is a better word) the appearance of so much speed in this pedigree.
Mahubah raises the question...would your filly be "accepted" for SA's first Kentucky book. I don't have the benefit of a catalogue style pedigree in front of me (of Punch N Lively), but I assure you that Johnny Jones (Walmac) would recognize your filly as a tempting addition to SA's 2005 book.
I liked the fact that your mare (as you described her) is "16-3...lovely legs...very classy form." I assume that classy form means well-made...stands over some ground (not the neat compact type)...has some length...good neck which ties nicely into shoulder. If that is the case, I believe it is a very good physical type to consider for SA.
Her physical type coupled with the mix of speed and stamina that your filly's pedigree brings to the table...should work beautifully with the strongly made...16+HH...extremely athletic...handsome head and lovely eye...strong quarters and well-muscled physique that Successful Appeal brings to the table. He is a touch offset...but it seems your mare should put that concern to rest...regardless... most of the SA's that I have seen have very good bone and are quite correct. The fact that your mare has "lovely" legs should act as an insurance policy.
Jessi P mentioned that SA's stud fee is rumored to be $20k next year. Many prognosticators are guessing a similar number. I believe it will be in the $15k to $30k range. I think the bottom will be $15 no matter what.
How high it may go will depend on several things...will Successful Appeal be crowned as Leading Freshman Sire (very possible)...will SA be the Leading Juvenile Sire (he is now but that's a very tall order)...will he have another graded stakes-winner prior to setting the 2005 stud fee (very possible)...will his daughter Punch Appeal upset everybody's apple cart and win the BC Juvenile Fillies (and obviously be the 2 yo champion) maybe...who knows...again a tough order to fill).
Regardless...Johnny Jones is careful about setting fees...he'd usually rather err to the low side versus the high side. He is very aware that when a stallion hits a cold spell (and they all seem to)...it is less difficult (or chaotic) trying to fill a realistically-priced horse than one who was set on the "high" side to begin with. That being said...he knows he has the goods (right now anyway).
With regard to Mahubah's question...would your mare be accepted to SA's first Ky book? Walmac will quickly recognize that Punch N Lively is a very interesting candidate...I do not believe she would be ruled out as a possibility. But Walmac (Johnny Jones) also knows that they will have the opportunity to select from a very interesting group of mares if they set the stud fee correctly...they also know they have a stallion (in Successful Appeal) that has some breeding idiosyncracies (and concerns)...that they haven't quite figured out yet.
SA has very good libido and is quite fertile...but sometimes for no apparent reason he will simply refuse to breed. For that reason, some owners may ask that the names of their mares be removed from consideration (once they are apprised of the potential breeding concerns).
Is Punch N Lively good enough...maybe...maybe not...but due to the somewhat unique circumstances, she may make the cut...and (again) Walmac would recognize what she brings to the table.
Will a prospective foal by Successful Appeal out of Punch N Lively be commercially viable?
Consider this...Successful Appeal's stakes winning son Closing Argument was a $10,000 weanling and a $100k 2 y.o. His dam was blank (of black-type) for 2 generations (if I recall correctly).
Successful Appeal's brilliant multiple stakes-winning daughter Punch Appeal ran for a $40k tag...was not claimed...quickly became a multiple stakes-winner, and as recently as last week won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at a mile...basically in wire-to-wire fashion. She's worth a lot of money right now.
The top priced yearling at Keeneland this past Wednesday was a Successful Appeal filly out of a young mare that had not produced a winner yet. And there was no Mr. Prospector to be found anywhere on the page. The filly sold for $180,000.
Bottom line...if you get a "good one" a superstar pedigree is obviously not necessary...if you get one that is so-so or barely "vets"...it doesn't matter what the page looks like...it will not sell well. If you get a good one with a star-studded pedigree...the sky's the limit.
Your mare seems to be a perfect candidate for Successful Appeal...for many reasons...but would I recommend putting $20k (plus tax) into your mare at this time...No.
Had your mare been by a stakes-caliber daughter of K.O.Punch I might have given it the nod...or had she been by a more highly regarded son (or grandson) of Mr. Prospector (such as Two Punch or Crafty Prospector or Unbridled etc) I may have given the nod.
But the circumstances being what they are...I would recommend considering your mare for a 2005 breeding to Successful Appeal if he stands for $10,000 or less. Above that figure...I cannot recommend.
Breeding to a stallion when he is experiencing success is easy...but selecting and breeding to the stallion that will be the "hot" commodity when you'll be selling is not so easy.
Right now...it appears that there is no sire in North America that is more perfectly suited for Punch N Lively than Successful Appeal. But for over $10,000 I cannot recommend it.
If he goes on and year-in and year-out he has the same consistent and quality success that he is experiencing right now, his stud fee will sky rocket and $20,000 may sound "cheap" but I still believe that right now putting over $10,000 into Punch N Lively cannot be justified (and that's only if SA is the $10k stallion).
If that is not an option, I would not recommend committing to more than a $5,000 stud fee for your mare (right now). Get her off to a nice start...let her prove something...and then put the bigger stud fees in her when she shows you she's worthy of a step up.
If she had already produced a knockout foal...that may have been justification enough to take a "shot"...but for now, let her produce somethiong for you...evaluate the quality of the foal...then sit down and consider the options.
Regardless...if you decide to take the shot to Successful Appeal anyway...he is probably the perfect stallion for your mare (based on what you've indicated).
But be assured...there is a stallion out there right now standing for a very reasonable stud fee that may accomplish everything (or more) that Successful Appeal is accomplishing right now...that may fit your mare perfectly. The job is to find him.
We should discuss this further and see if we can come up with a quality "short list."
But whatever you decide...good luck always.
Respectfully
Thanks very much... I guess I got a few stars in my eyes when I looked at the pedigrees.... and I looked at Successful Appeal in the stallion register and he was listed as $6K...
In terms of classic form, Punch is what you describe -- stands tall, not short barreled, nice and square, nice chest, nice head and long neck that ties in, very nice big shoulder, round croup, takes an 84" blanket. She is a very intelligent, sensible type.
Oh well, maybe in a few years... in the meantime, I need to find her a prom date for 2005.
In terms of classic form, Punch is what you describe -- stands tall, not short barreled, nice and square, nice chest, nice head and long neck that ties in, very nice big shoulder, round croup, takes an 84" blanket. She is a very intelligent, sensible type.
Oh well, maybe in a few years... in the meantime, I need to find her a prom date for 2005.
If you're willing to send your mare up to New York, then Thunderello would make for an interesting cross. Gives a balanced 3x4 to In Reality and a balanced 4x5 to Buckpasser. These two horses serve to load up the pedigree with Man O War, which is never a bad thing. The one thing that would concern me about this cross is potential for unsoundness, as Thunderello only managed 7 starts in his career. Interesting cross on paper though, anyways. Just giving you something to chew on... gotta love that New York breeders program too. Good luck with your mare.
Hi Domino and madelyn
I agree with Domino...Thunderello is very "interesting." I like him very much...
despite some defects.
Thunderello is back in one knee and has one foot (up front) that is quite small and a touch concave (and maybe contracted) but he is a powerhouse...and was a very game racehorse that could fly. Few had his kind of natural speed and more speed.
His defects should help serve as an indicater as to what you may want to select (or not select) to breed to him...but it must be said he has many good features to offer his mares.
Despite his flaws...I was EXTREMELY impressed with the Thunderellos I have seen. Very well conformed young fillies and colts...with plenty of strength and quality. A good duo.
The Thunderellos I saw were a very impressive group...the kind that I believe pinhookers will love. Robust and racy types.
In the case of Madelyn's mare...Thunderello could be a very good choice...because he is the powerhouse...blocky...strong gaskin and forearm kinda guy. And Punch N Lively seems to be the taller...leggier...correct...more classic type.
As long as Punch N Lively is very good through the knees and has 4 good feet...Thunderello may be an excellent choice.
Respectfully
I agree with Domino...Thunderello is very "interesting." I like him very much...
despite some defects.
Thunderello is back in one knee and has one foot (up front) that is quite small and a touch concave (and maybe contracted) but he is a powerhouse...and was a very game racehorse that could fly. Few had his kind of natural speed and more speed.
His defects should help serve as an indicater as to what you may want to select (or not select) to breed to him...but it must be said he has many good features to offer his mares.
Despite his flaws...I was EXTREMELY impressed with the Thunderellos I have seen. Very well conformed young fillies and colts...with plenty of strength and quality. A good duo.
The Thunderellos I saw were a very impressive group...the kind that I believe pinhookers will love. Robust and racy types.
In the case of Madelyn's mare...Thunderello could be a very good choice...because he is the powerhouse...blocky...strong gaskin and forearm kinda guy. And Punch N Lively seems to be the taller...leggier...correct...more classic type.
As long as Punch N Lively is very good through the knees and has 4 good feet...Thunderello may be an excellent choice.
Respectfully
Thanks, but I need to stay within a 3-hour trailer ride from Louisville, and the New York breeder's program is pretty much out of reach for me. I have friends in Indiana and Ohio so could more easily foal a mare in those states if I was looking for a program; there is Arromanches in Indiana who brings In Reality and Mahmoud to the mix.
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Stellaspeed
- 2yo Maiden
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Mr Katowice
He's in Michigan, Katowice X Hail Atlantis by Seattle Slew, stakes winner himself, 16.2 bay, four whites and a big blaze. He's very correct,very kind, and has several babies on the ground in the hands of top Michigan trainers. They are gorgeous babies.
In addition to being a half bro to Stormy Atlantic,he has a 2 yo half brother by Forestry named Alluvial that I believe Linda Rice has, his other brother by Forestry was hip #40 at Keeneland. His sister Divine Dixie has a Fu Peg 2 yo named Bandini, and his sister Helstra just had her Arch filly sell for I believe 150k at Keeneland.
That's a lot of nice family for a $1500 fee, but, we will also be donating seasons to Kato to the TRF and others.
In addition to being a half bro to Stormy Atlantic,he has a 2 yo half brother by Forestry named Alluvial that I believe Linda Rice has, his other brother by Forestry was hip #40 at Keeneland. His sister Divine Dixie has a Fu Peg 2 yo named Bandini, and his sister Helstra just had her Arch filly sell for I believe 150k at Keeneland.
That's a lot of nice family for a $1500 fee, but, we will also be donating seasons to Kato to the TRF and others.
You might look at Evansville Slew for her if the conformation match is favorable. 4x4 Mr. Prospector shouldn't be too close, especially with one of the strains being through the atypical line of Fappiano. ES's strain of Fappiano should in turn appreciate the In Reality in the mare, and both the Mr. P and Buckpasser lines in the mare complement the Seattle Slew in the sire. At $3500 last I looked, the price seems very reasonable for a horse that, like his sire, is turning out to be a pretty consistent sire of winners.
If you want to go with the In Reality male line, Valid Expectation's stakes-winning full brother Littleexpectations is at stud for $2000 in Kentucky. If he's anything like his bro or his 3/4 bro Valid Wager, he should get runners.
If you want to go with the In Reality male line, Valid Expectation's stakes-winning full brother Littleexpectations is at stud for $2000 in Kentucky. If he's anything like his bro or his 3/4 bro Valid Wager, he should get runners.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis
P.S. I remember suggesting you look at Fast Play and Matty G for her, too, for a 2004 mating. Matty G may be bumping up on the stud fee, though.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis
whoa, Mahubah, you made Allowance!
Actually, I looked at Evansville Slew, and like him better for Overnight Deposit!
Littleexpectations has possibilities, maybe I was taking FOS too literally in looking at Arromanches for an Indiani-sired, Indiana-bred, just to see the quality of the foal....
Gosh this prom date thing is tough to work out!
Actually, I looked at Evansville Slew, and like him better for Overnight Deposit!
Littleexpectations has possibilities, maybe I was taking FOS too literally in looking at Arromanches for an Indiani-sired, Indiana-bred, just to see the quality of the foal....
Gosh this prom date thing is tough to work out!