Average Earnings per Starter

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griff
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Average Earnings per Starter

Postby griff » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:01 pm

I was looking at the statistics on the Leading Stallions as listed in The Blood Horse's Stallion Registery and decided to calculate the Avearge Earnings per Starter of the top five stallions in 2008:

Smart Strike with $12,477,080 in winnings from 239 starters has a 2008 average earnings per starter of $52,188 with 51% winners from starters with a $150k fee

Giants Causeway has a 2008 avearge earnings per starter of $32,210 and 41% winners from starters with s $125k fee

Tiznow has a $52,392 avearge earnings per starter for 2008 and 51% winners from starters

Distorted Humore has a 2008 avearge earnings per starter of $32,863 and 54% winners from starters and a $150k fee

Elusive Quality has a $36,019 aveareg earnings per starter in 2008 with 46% winners from starters with a $75k fee

The average of the top five staions is:

Average earnings per starter in 2008 = $41,134 [$36,641 w/o V Curlin]
Average % winners from starters in 2008 is 48.6%
Average stud fee for these five was $110k in 2008

I then looked at my five favorit Mid Atlantic stallion using the February 2009 issue of The Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred page 70 and found:

Average earnings per starter in 2008 = $36,220
Average % winners from Starters in 2008 = 56.6%
Average stud fee in 2008 = $7,700

Average earnings per starter $41,134 vs $36,220
Avarage % winners from starter 48.6% vs 56.6%
Average stud fee $110k vs $7,700.

The Mid Atlantic Stallions I used are:

Not For Love average earnings per starter $31,934; % winners from starters 61% ; 2008 stud fee $25,000

Limit Out avearge earnings per starter $39,934; % wiiners from starters 64%; 2008 stud fee $2,500

Ghostly Minister avearge earnings per starter $48,783; %winners from starters 45%; 2008 stud fee $2,500

Reparation avearge earnings per starter $31,627; % winners from starters 50%, 2008 stud fee $1,000

Outflanker avearge earnings per starter $28,986; 5 winners from starters 62%; 2008 stud fee $7,500


Looks like Mid Atlantic stallions are more cost effective than the Big Five if you are interested in "avearge earnings per starter", " % winners from starters" and "reasonable stud fees"..

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

tbrace
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sires

Postby tbrace » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:45 pm

Griff,
Well said.

A couple of changes that could and should happen in this business, maybe helped by the bad market, is that breed to race and breed to sell should become the same thing, and, stud farms need to put stud fees to where a breeder or race person can actually make some money.

Even with reduced stud fees, several stallions in California are way over priced based on the criteria that you used. Many should be "complimentary" as they were in the 80's and 90's (the way Benchmark started out, for instance.)

Linda_d
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Postby Linda_d » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:59 pm

If you can find them, the median average earnings per starter is also revealing. The median is better for determining the general quality of starters since it's the point at which half the starters earn less and half earn more. This is especially true for stallions that might have only 2 or 3 big money earners that really skew the averages.

tbrace
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stallions

Postby tbrace » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:20 pm

Linda,
Spoken like someone who has endured a statistics course or two. :)

At least for me, it was a case of endurance.

griff
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Postby griff » Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:01 am

Linda D

You are correct. For instance take a look at Smart Strike with and w/on Curlin.. His average winnings per starter are probably going to take a big hit in 2009

What got me started on this is I was considering a stallion with an all years average earning per starter of around $63k and noticed that his 2008 average earnings per starter was below $15k; i.e., his Curlin was no longer racing.

The Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred publishes annual average earnings per starter; I wonder why The Blood Horse does not??

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

Dave C
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Postby Dave C » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:27 am

Your pointing out what others have observed before: there is a disconnect between stallion quality and performance. Stud fees are more about marketing machines convincing the wealthy but unwise that a stallions will sire the next champion. There is never any shortage of agents, trainers, and 'friends' to advise the wealthy that the marketing machines are telling the truth, for a small fee of course. Given that the marketing machines account for a good portion of The BloodHorse revenue you can't really expect them to print the statistics that would show all those adds to be all sizzle and no steak.

Altanbarr
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Postby Altanbarr » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:08 am

I tried to analyze these kinds of stats every which way for Mid Atlantic sires and settled on Lite the Fuse as the best bargain. Lifetime average earnings per starter over $62,000 for 10 crops without a single millionaire and only one horse earning over $600,000. No jackpot horses but a lot of good ones. That's got to produce a pretty high median average though I never figured it out. Stud fee $3500. The problems in assessing WV sires include the small sample sizes and slots-inflated purses for restricted state-bred races. Until very recently, Lite the Fuse has not benefitted from high state-bred purses. Not for Love has an $82,000 lifetime average but the stud fee is $25K.

st. louis kid
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Postby st. louis kid » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:35 am

Hypothetically, someone is going to give me a free breeding to either Distorted Humor or Smart Strike vs. Ghostly Minister or Limit Out, and I am going to choice the latter. That is just silly. Your chance of getting a big time horse are close to zero.

Bohemia
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Postby Bohemia » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:07 am

I am sending my mare to Partner's Hero this spring - he has lifetime average earnings per starter of $53,057, one of the tops in Pa., and all for a stud fee of $2,500. Agreed that Lite the Fuse has some impressive stats, too.

ct2346
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Postby ct2346 » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:41 am

These stats are very interesting but as Altanbarr hints, keep in mind that some of the stallions mentioned benefit from good purses in state bred programs. Nothing wrong with that, but if you intend to use them, do so as a state bred. That said, Raffie's Majesty average earning per starter is somewhere north of $71000...pretty nice.

However, with some of these you'd better be willing to wait. If a lot of 10yo geldings are contributing to this number...well...that's another story.

I'd like to see the data broken out by:

avg earnings per starter 2yo
avg earnings per starter 3yo
avg earnings per starter 4yo
etc.

That would be more meaningful. There are costs associated with keeping a horse running for 7 years.

griff
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Postby griff » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:46 am

February 2009 Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred page 70:

Lite the Fuse 2008 avearge earnings per Starter = $21,012
Lite The Fuse 2008 % winners to starters = 55%

Partner's Hero 2008 average earnings per starter = $24,614
Partner's hero 2008 % winners to starters =51%

My favorite Mid Atlantic stallion:

Limit Out 2008 average earnings per starter = $39,760
Limit Out 2008 % winners to starters = 64%
2009 stud fee is $2,500
& I believe he produces 6% stakes horses
Besides he is a "Lord Jim" stallion.

By the way, the slot's inflated MSW purse at Charles twon is $28k.. What is the MSW purse where you are??

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

Hotwalker
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Postby Hotwalker » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:01 am

I think the stallion lists would be more meaningful after the top earner was taken out of the results. That would more accurately reflect the overall quality of foals representing the stallion on the track. But smart/value oriented breeders like we have on this board are good at getting into the numbers and finding answers.

But as a poster mentioned, the 6 figure stallions do get the big horse and that's what drives the demand. Unbridled's Song, Awesome Again, AP Indy...whether it's a function of the mare population they get or their own ability, they are the ones producing the Ghostzappers and Bernardinis of the world.

LB
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Postby LB » Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:23 pm

Hotwalker wrote:But as a poster mentioned, the 6 figure stallions do get the big horse and that's what drives the demand. Unbridled's Song, Awesome Again, AP Indy...whether it's a function of the mare population they get or their own ability, they are the ones producing the Ghostzappers and Bernardinis of the world.


Exactly. No one breds to the top stallions hoping to get an average horse. The fact that they can produce racing's stars is what drives their stud fees, not the hype and sizzle in their ads.

griff
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Postby griff » Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:32 pm

Hotwalker

Many times it's the Big Horse that gets the six figure, or even five figure stallion; i.e, what was Distorted Humors fee when he got FunnieCide ?

griff
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Altanbarr
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Postby Altanbarr » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:04 pm

griff wrote:My favorite Mid Atlantic stallion:

Limit Out 2008 average earnings per starter = $39,760
Limit Out 2008 % winners to starters = 64%
2009 stud fee is $2,500
& I believe he produces 6% stakes horses
Besides he is a "Lord Jim" stallion.

By the way, the slot's inflated MSW purse at Charles twon is $28k.. What is the MSW purse where you are??

griff


Nice stats. Looks like his top six runners are all fillies. Wonder why.

What's a "Lord Jim" stallion?