How the heck can you make money???

[TrueColours]

Breeding for yearling sales babies???

I am sitting here debating if I made the dumbest move in the world, breeding specifically for a baby for the yearling sales in 2010

The dam is Regal Swan. SP, nice mare, nothing earth shattering about her.

1995 mare by Regal Affair- Afleet Forever by Afleet. Her 2000 filly earned 142,009, her 2002 colt earned 49,887, her 2004 gelding earned 8,689 and sold at the Ontario sale for 10,158, her 2006 colt sold at Keeneland in September for 67,000. The mare herself made $26,716 and at 2 was 3rd Junior Champion S. (O) (40,000).

The sire is Alumni Hall by AP Indy, owned by Lane's End Farm and promoted well. These 2009 foals are his first on the ground and between Lane's End and the farm where he stood last year (Norse Ridge) and client's, he had some very nice mares bred to him

I spoke to some agents today with regards to representing him for me at either Woodbine or Keeneland and I am leaning more towards Woodbine at this time ...

The minimum I am looking at, right from the get go, is $2500.00 between the auction house fees, the new halter, share of advertising, share of groom's fees, hotel fees, etc, etc, etc. Plus the commissions at the end as well on his sale price. Plus the recommendation by the agents to "bring him over to their place for a few days when the inspectors from the sale come around in April" at a cost of $60.00 a day

I figure at this stage with the stud fee ($5000.00), my care on the mare up til this point (at home so about $250.00 - $275.00 a month), vet bills, blacksmith bills and then the upkeep and care on the colt until September 2010, I am going to have about $13,000.00 into him. Add in that "minimum $2500.00" fee gives me $15,200.00, add in the 3 days at their place for the inspection plus fuel gives me about $15,500.00 and thats if NOTHING goes wrong with this colt, he doesnt put a foot wrong and I dont have to spend a penny in vet bills over and above yearly shots and the like!

With what I HOPE he might sell for ($50,000ish????? or $40,000.00ish???) I am going to be lucky to make my money back and pocket a few dollars at the end of the day. And thats IF the economy rebounds and he actually sells in that range, instead of me taking him back home again as he RNA'd and being out of pocket that $2500.00 plus "for the experience"

MANY of these yearlings fetch under $10,000.00 or under $20,000 and their attributes appear to be as strong, stronger, or slightly weaker than my colt so I am not under any allusion whatsoever that I am going to retire on what he goes for, or get into breeding for the track full time either ...

So for those that DO breed commercially for the track - how the heck do you come out alive in the end and actually make money at this? Or do I resign myself to the fact I am going to have to keep this colt and run him myself instead?

[ASB]

It's all about the broodmare, in my opinion. She's the most important investment in the equation.

She needs a commercial page and enough of the physical attributes the buyers want, so that there's a good chance she'll pass it onto her foals.

It might go against common thought, but I'd take a big, built mare with a great look about her who maybe made 150k running in allowance and claimers throughout her career, if she has the page, over a less attractive stakes-placed or regional stakes winner.

Now if you're breeding to race, then the stakes winner becomes a whole lot more attractive.

Selecting stallions for the ring is quite a bit easier in my opinion. Most people have a decent grasp on who's going to be focused on by the time their foals hit the sales.

[TrueColours]

She needs a commercial page and enough of the physical attributes the buyers want, so that there's a good chance she'll pass it onto her foals.

Well - I am *assuming* she was commercial enough for her last foal to be sold for $67,000 (or am I wrong here???) and there is no way to know what any of the dams of these yearlings look like, so I cant see how that would be a factor at all ...

This IS a nice looking colt. He is correct, he is going to be a good size, he is well developed already. I like a lot of what I see in him now

I just dont have a clue at this stage if I try and sell him privately and simply get my money back or run him myself.

Thoughts???

[BlazingColours]

One more thing that you may have to add into the cost of going to a sale is a full set of xrays. Many sales I have attended have xrays on file for the horses. Not sure who pays for them but my guess is the owner selling the yearling/two year old. So one must also *pray* the xrays are clean too!

I guess I will find out in 2011 as I have two race foals due next year that I plan to take to the sales ring in 2011. Both by mares who have done quite well on the track and by sires who are very well known.

To make money at it, my guess is you have to be in it for the long haul. Because not every foal is going to fetch 40,50,100, 250k+. Some will fetch less because of the economy that year or issues that may show up on xray or ??? And some will sell for the big bucks. With the good choice of a mare/stallion combo, good planning, great care and a bit of luck... one comes out ahead!

[LB]

Well - I am *assuming* she was commercial enough for her last foal to be sold for $67,000 (or am I wrong here???) and there is no way to know what any of the dams of these yearlings look like, so I cant see how that would be a factor at all ...

What ASB means--correct me if I'm wrong ASB--is that the yearling you sell will be a reflection of its dam. ie, if the dam is big and lovely and correct, the yearling has a better chance of possessing those desirable attributes too.

Bear in mind too, the sales buyers are all about results. While your mare may have been considered commercial when her 2006 colt sold for 67,000 (or perhaps he was simply a really superior physical specimen?) if she's a 1995 model and hasn't yet produced blacktype, her appeal as a sales mare is rapidly waning. Which of course, has nothing to do with her ability to produce good racehorses.

[LB]

Another thing: what is considered commercial in the TB marketplace is constantly changing. Stallions get hot and cold. Families flourish and wane. One big horse can make a page. Blacktype is very important--but so is where it was earned. A mare will only get 2 or 3 chances to produce winners--no matter how good her own race record was--before buyers will begin to look elsewhere.

Buyers will pay more for first (or early) foals out of mares. If you're really lucky, by the time you sell the second foal, the first will have already won--or will at least be racing. At the recently concluded Fasig Tipton July sale, Terrance was reading workout times for 2YO silblings as updates.

It's amazing how many pitfalls there are in the commercial marketplace. Really, the only we've found to succeed to is breed horses we'd love to race and if they don't sell for what we think they're worth, keep them and run them ourselves.

[Hold Your Peace]

She needs a commercial page and enough of the physical attributes the buyers want, so that there's a good chance she'll pass it onto her foals.

Well - I am *assuming* she was commercial enough for her last foal to be sold for $67,000 (or am I wrong here???) and there is no way to know what any of the dams of these yearlings look like, so I cant see how that would be a factor at all ...

This IS a nice looking colt. He is correct, he is going to be a good size, he is well developed already. I like a lot of what I see in him now

I just dont have a clue at this stage if I try and sell him privately and simply get my money back or run him myself.

Thoughts???

Honestly, my advice would be to try and sell him privately and get your money back.

Obviously the Cuvee must have been a real looker and drew some attention (back before the economy and bloodstock markets tanked) and he was from the first crop of Cuvee who people thought had a chance to make it.

But, Cuvee hasn't been a success and neither has that colt as he's earned less than $14,000 and is currently running for $5,000.

Even if you had another really outstanding physical yearling (like the Cuvee apparently was) I just really don't think Alumni Hall's are going to be that hot (Especially not at Keeneland as he stood in Canada). Alumni Hall was an extremely late developer and sons of A.P. Indy aren't really thought of as siring precocious 2yo's. Whereas Cuvee screamed precocious 2yo, being a good 2yo himself, and being by Carson City (and this is more of what people are looking for at the sales).

Definitely sell in Canada as Alumni Hall was proven on synthetics and of course Woodbine is synthetic and of course yours is Canadian bred.

Another thing that hurts is that the mare has had a fair number run and none have been that impressive. The one who earned $142k needed six years and 51 starts to reach that total and when you consider what it costs to run one for six years even that one didn't pay her way.

The good news though is that people who "buy what people want" at the sales are frequently wrong and he could turn out to be a nice runner.

I know in 2007 I sold two weanlings by two different first crop sires.

One, people were all over, and she sold for $55,000. Was scratched from a yearling sale the next year. RNA'd for $57,000 at an early 2yo sale. Sold for $24,000 at a later 2yo sale. Still unnamed leading me to believe she's not close to a start.

Another, people were NOT all over, and he sold for just $10,000. Then it seemed like he was a hot potato nobody wanted to be left holding reselling as a January yearling for $15,000 then reselling as a fall yearling for $17,000 and then was an RNA at a 2yo sale for $20,000. He made his debut on the track for Maiden $50,000 claiming and won (he was not claimed) and was bought privately after the race for $100,000. He then placed 3rd in a $100,000 stake in just his second start and his connections recently turned down $250,000 for him.

So you just never know.

[jrgators]

My 2cents would be, the best way to make money is breed to race, train your own, and get lucky!

the sales are brutal! They should be too!! If you don't have the goods, you are going to get slammed! If your colt is a great looking fella, you should do good.

I don't remember who said it, but they were correct, your mare has to have produced some runners, or you are in big trouble. At her age, if she hasn't you won't get even on the colt. If she has, well you could do good.

I love Alumni Hall. I have a mare that I want to breed to him, but I don't want to leave Tx, but that's another story......anyways....good luck, and yes you have to pay for the Xrays too.

Theo

[TrueColours]

Thank you SO much everyone. You guys are all telling me exactly what I need to know and hear from the "other side of the fence"

I am just looking at these numbers and they simply arent adding up to anything special

I also am not happy that the now 3 year old colt out of this mare (by Cuvee) won by 11 1/2 lengths "going away" in his first start, then fell off the face of the earth for awhile, then had lackluster works and worse races (I guess he had/has some physical issues???) and now is running for low claiming tags

The last thing on frigging earth I wanted to do was get back into the racing game, but maybe just maybe if this colt develops well, we may take him there ourselves as a 3 year old and see if our time and investment was a smart one. Then I can train and run him exactly as I believe he SHOULD be trained and run, rather than second guessing other people's motive's and ideas from the sidelines ...

And I have never had any illusions that this mare was going to produce the next Derby winner. I just felt she had the ability to produce a decent race horse that could win some races and money for his connections and be a good overall investment. And yes - with Alumni Hall not exactly being stellar as a 2 or 3 year old, I dont think many buyers will look at them as great investments for the early races either

Thanks again - I appreciate the input very very much ...

[LB]

And I have never had any illusions that this mare was going to produce the next Derby winner. I just felt she had the ability to produce a decent race horse that could win some races and money for his connections and be a good overall investment. And yes - with Alumni Hall not exactly being stellar as a 2 or 3 year old, I dont think many buyers will look at them as great investments for the early races either

Something else to keep in mind--because buyers most certainly do--is that in these days of high vet bills, high training fees, and declining purses, a racehorse has to be more than decent just to pay his own way. It costs most owners an unconcionable amount to keep a horse in training for a year so you're much better off aiming for the top of the market and dropping to the middle, than aiming for the middle and dropping to the bottom, where almost no one is earning their keep.

[jrgators]

Lb is right on point! You can't make it without aiming for the clouds, and yes more horse end up in the mid to low claimers than don't.

I think you are on the right path, though grudgingly about training your horse for yourself. As a trainer, I hate to say it, but as an owner i have to say, how the hell can you make a dime paying day rate with these purses? It's gotta be brutal! Not in PA, man those purses are sick!! (Yes, I'm very jealous! )

You might want to think too, if you don't want to go the long road, just don't put an RNA on him, take what he gets, and walk away waiting and hoping for breeders awards!

Theo

[Fair Play]

If he doesn't fetch enough to get you out and you feel you have lost more than you are comfortable losing, I would not suggest keeping him to race. What if he costs you $25,000 a year at Woodbine, and doesn't race until 3 (or heaven forbid until the age his sire did ) and then makes $10,000? You are really out then.

Yes, it is nerve racking. If it makes you feel better, here is a story told at least third hand from Keeneland many years ago.

A new breeder was in a panic in the kitchen at Keeneland. He sat at a table expressing terror to his mate that if his two colts didn't fetch $30,000 each the next day, he couldn't meet his obligations. A very flush fellow overheard this from a nearby table, and offered the fellow $60K for the pair on the spot, sight unseen. The seller went home to sleep better, and the buyer to examine what he bought. One colt, he kept to race (I have no clue how that went). The other he put through the ring the next day. It fetched $90,000. I don't know how much of this is accurate, or really what my point is, but you are in too deep to worry now.

I would be careful setting a reserve though. Do not throw good money after bad. If the $15,000 is stressful, racing him will be 10x worse. I figure you are a good enough judge of how he presents and walks to know if there is anything physical that would turn prospective buyers off. How the feel about his page is beyond your control.

I do find that unless you hit a real home run, everyone but the original investor gets paid: the stallion, the sales company, the agent, the prep people, everyone who walks by his stall makes it out alive except the guy who actually put the money up. Good luck with your guy and realize, it is too late to have second thoughts now.

[walaa]

but please also remember, it all depends on WHO wants your horse on that particular day, no matter what the catalog page says. if you watch the sales religiously, you will see that 99 % of the time, what the posters on this thread are saying will hold true, but that other 1%, and with all the sales all over the country, its alot, there seems to be no rhyme or reason as to what sets a buyer off, seriously. I saw lots of yearlings this week with 10-20 fees, ( and you have no idea if thats what folks really paid, lots of deals go on ) out of mares with no foals, one or 2 to race, not much earnings, etc, but maybe 2nd dam, sometimes not even till 3rd dam that it looks hot, get offers of 30-70 grand. At another sale this year I saw baby out of 1st year stallion with not much RR, but full or half brother to so and so, out of a mare with 2 foals of racing age none to race sell for 310,000 so you NEVER know what will happen. It is really tough, I dont know how anyone can make money either without starting off with enough money to buy and breed well, but it can be done and lots of folks do it and make a living. You never know what will sell, just think what the 2 Birdstones sold for this week, ha ha Thats the only way to keep looking at it, stay positive Personally , I tried breeding for the sales twice and lost my ass, so now its only going to the sales looking for weanlings this winter But your baby sounds nice, and I sure have seen mares with no blacktype have yearlings that sold well, and I always wish I had been at that sale when they were weanies!!

[griff]

Fair Play

I fear your story is pure male bovine excrement.. No one pays $60k for two colts sight unseen

griff

[TrueColours]

Well - you guys have certainly made me laugh with your stories and comments if nothing else!

I do find that unless you hit a real home run, everyone but the original investor gets paid: the stallion, the sales company, the agent, the prep people, everyone who walks by his stall makes it out alive except the guy who actually put the money up.

100% true, isnt it? On all accounts ...

Good luck with your guy and realize, it is too late to have second thoughts now.

Exactly. And I do like this colt a lot. I love how he covers the ground, I love how he uses his body, I am impressed with his effortless acceleration. Its quite funny actually watching him run and play next to my perlino filly

She is like a baby elephant in a tutu and the only way SHE would ever win a race, is if she knocked over everyone else that was running against her and won by default. A race horse she is DEFINATELY not!

At least thank goodness he can grow up here at a relatively low cost and we can re-evaluate things with him next year. I cant even say we will see what other Alumni Hall youngsters go for, as the weanlings that will go through this fall, in a soft economy, wont tell the tale of what the yearlings should/might go for in 2010

I think I am going to stick with breeding show horses instead ...