who is best bred to win the derby?

[hdembski]

who do you think is best bred for the derby so far? My two favorites are Harlington & shamardal (out of UAE). I like to play the derby futures so like to hear some breeding expertise, but i'd like anyone to show me anyone better bred than those two! (defer not bad either or dance with ravens)

[Bill from WA]

Here are the Conduit Profiles for a few contenders:

Declan's Moon: 5-8-2-8-8 (13/16) (0.77)
Guillaume Tell: 7-9-3-3-7 (16/10) (1.30)
High Fly: 2-8-4-5-7 (10/12) (0.70)
Bandini: 7-7-0-9-7 (14/16) (0.91)
Scipion: 9-3-4-2-10 (12/12) (0.96)
Iced Out: 5-3-2-3-10 (8/13) (0.60)
Shamardal: 5-6-1-6-4 (11/10) (1.05)
Harlington: 2-11-2-6-6 (13/12) (0.85)
Sweet Catomine: 3-5-4-7-4 (8/11) (0.79)
Galloping Grocer: 7-5-1-7-6 (12/13) (1.00)
Going Wild: 6-6-3-5-6 (12/11) 1.05)
Dubawi: 5-7-3-8-4 (12/12) (1.05)
Texcess: 7-4-4-6-7 (11/13) (0.92)
Becrux: 3-3-5-4-8 (6/12) (0.56)
Maddy's Lion: 9-5-1-6-7 (14/13) (1.14)
Vicarage: 7-6-3-10-2 (13/12) (1.35)
Fusaichi Samurai: 8-7-0-8-6 (15/14) (1.15) (out)
Monarch Lane: 9-2-1-5-6 (11/11) (1.17)
Wilko: 4-5-5-7-4 (9/11) (0.90)
Yes Yes Yes: 4-5-5-6-3 (9/9) 1.06)
Rockport Harbor: 3-4-6-3-8 (7/11) (0.64)
Congleve: 7-7-1-8-4 (14/12) (1.29)
Rush Bay: 10-3-5-5-5 (13/10) (1.40)
Stormin Away: 4-8-3-8-4 (12/12) (1.00)
Cherokee Path: 5-6-5-7-4 (11/11) (1.05)
So Long Birdie: 6-6-2-7-2 (12/9) (1.54)
Consolidator: 5-7-3-5-3 (12/8) (1.43)
Andromeda's Hero: 5-9-1-8-3 (14/11) (1.33)
Diamond Isle: 3-6-5-6-2 (8/9) (1.13)
Razor: 8-3-5-5-4 (11/9) (1.33)
Sun King: 6-4-5-3-4 (10/7) (1.31)
Survivalist: (5-8-3-6-2 (13/8) (1.62)
Greater Good: 5-7-2-5-3 (12/8) (1.46)
Scrappy T: 2-7-6-6-1 (9/7) (1.21)
Flamenco: 9-5-1-6-3 (14/9) (1.85)
Storm Surge: 6-5-1-7-4 (11/11) (1.13)
Lost In The Fog: 5-5-3-6-3 (10/9) (1.21)
Noble Causeway: 8-5-3-5-5 (13/10) (1.30)
Defer: 7-7-1-8-1 (14/9) (2.00)
Uncle Denny: 9-2-3-5-6 (11/11) (1.15)
Dearest Mon: 5-6-3-9-4 (11/13) (0.95)
Devil's Disciple: 4-7-3-5-3 (11/8) (1.29)
Spanish Chestnut: 6-6-6-7-3 (12/10) (1.26)
Roman Ruler: 9-4-3-9-4 (13/13) (1.25)
Buzzard's Bay: 3-5-6-6-4 (8/10) (0.85)
Afleet Alex: 8-7-2-5-6 (15/11) (1.32)
Proud Accolade: 6-6-4-6-5 (12/11) (1.11)
Closing Argument: 11-2-8-0-6 (13/6) (1.60)
Snack: 6-6-2-8-4 (12/12) (1.11)
Malibu Moonshine: 11-4-1-1-11 (15/12) (1.13)
Legal Control: 7-4-4-6-7 (11/13) (0.92)
High Limit: 10-3-1-4-5 (13/9) (1.60)
Documentary: 6-6-1-8-4 (12/12) (1.12)
Fusaichi Rock Star: 7-3-4-6-3 (10/9) (1.31)
Sort It Out: 6-1-6-7-5 (7/12) (0.83)
Golden Shine: 10-5-3-8-3 (15/11) (1.65)

Bill

[louis finochio]

How many lenghts did Shamardal beat Wilko at 7 fur. ?

Shamardal has 12 crosses of (Phalaris) in his 5 generation pedigree.

Will Shamardal withstand the hard dirt track in the US, and stay sound thru the TC Series ? Only time will tell, if Shamardal has the class and will to become the 3 yr. old champion.

[FOS]

hi guys

The one that may be somewhat under the radar (as far as talent anyway) might be High Fly (by Atticus out of a Slewpy mare).

Bill from WA has him on his list.

The "talk" is he's a serious derby contender.

But there are lots of "talk" horses and pretenders (yet to be exposed) this time of year.

Reports have been quite glowing about High Fly. He's 3 for 3...but may be seriously tested soon. We'll see soon-enough what he's really made of.

Respectfully

[DanN]

High fly is my pick so far also... But sure hoping sweet catomine gets a shot at it.

[louis finochio]

If Sweet Catomine wins her next races by a comfortable margin, then we can look foreward to her competing against the colts.

We will see how sporting the Wygods are.

[Joe]

There's a free contest on letitride. You get to pick one Derby hopeful horse a week and lock in the future odds. It's free. You accumulate one horse a week into your "stable" at the current odds over 18 weeks (first week over) and then you have to discard down to 4 horses for the Derby. Chances of winning are very small, but the price is right.. ESPN also had a million dollar pool last year, free also, that required you to pick the exact order of finish. I thought these pools were crazy, and still do somewhat, but a buddy convinced me that wierd things happen and you could get lucky. and the price is right.

[freddymo]

Bill what are these conduit profiles? How are they releviant? Why is one better then another?

[Rick]

I am intrigued by Going Wild. Bill looking at your conduit profiles, it looks like Lost in the Fog will run about 9 furlongs.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Freddymo

The conduit profiles are based on an examination of racing aptitudes flowing through the female family. Unlike dosage, every horse within a 4 generation pedigree is evaluated to assess the distance ranges of the descendants of certain "conduit mares" that are found within in the pedigree. There is no good or bad number, just a tool to approximate the distance ranges, or capabilties, of the individuals examined.

Hi Rick

Yes, the way I read the numbers, Lost In The Fog would be most effective up to and through 9 furlongs. Of course, the horse doesn't know that. (I think). The proof (or lack thereof) will come the 1st Saturday in May

Bill

[freddymo]

thx starting to get it... Are these figures as useful to breeders and pinhookers... Seems to me it does not a huge commercial significance... Am I wrong about that?

[devinganwich]

Hey Bill from WA

Can you do one of those profiles for Fit and Tough for me, and tell me what the distance is, since i am not sure how to read it? I've been excited about him, he had a very impressive first time maiden win at emerald by like 9 lengths and I watched him beat some Cal breds by 5 1/2 lengths a few weeks ago. I'd like to see how far he can run and how he could do against stakes company. Oh and I was curious, did you ever get that book out? If so I would love to buy a copy, where can I get it?

Devin

[Bill from WA]

Hi devinganwich

Fit And Tough is a very promising Washington bred.

His conduit profile is: 8-4-5-4-6 (12/10) 1.19

He has a very good balance of speed and stamina, tilting toward speed. I would think he might be a very good sprinter miler type, who could get up to 1.25 miles under the right conditions. His triads break down to 17-13-15, again, slightly showing sprint to middle distance as his optimum range. His wings (B/P) lean slightly toward speed, and his center (I/C/S) is balanced. He has a lot of good old Washington stallions in his female side.
Information re: my book at: http://www.dimarpublishing.citymaker.com
There is an article in the Washington Thoroughbred's current Stallion Register about the profiles, and there was another short mention in the magazine a couple of months ago. There is a copy at the WTBA library.

Bill

[PG29]

SURVIVALIST or DEFER

Defer gets his first chance as a 3 year old on Sat. I am still waiting to see Survivalist come back. He has been working very nicely at Gulfstream. All the talk is about Defer in Shug's barn. Survivalist is going to jump into the mix here very soon I hope.

[pistol]

I like Monarch Lane, Jonesboro, and ANDROMEDAS HERO.