Best Nick Ever?

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llbean
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Best Nick Ever?

Postby llbean » Sat Nov 21, 2009 6:12 pm

Check it out, just about the highest VGS for a cross with multiple SWs I've ever seen:

With Approval/Bonne Not has a VGS of 505.78 (!) based on 3 SWs incluing the G1 Winning Breeder's Cup Turf Champion Better Talk Now and the G1 Winner Bien Toi.

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Postby Roger » Sat Nov 21, 2009 8:03 pm

Three Bars X Chicado V produced several of what we would call Chef. In the QH racing world it has to be the best nick ever.
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Postby vineyridge » Sun Nov 22, 2009 8:36 am

Best EVER?

Teddy and Plucky Liege.

Chaucer's daughters and Phalaris.
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ct2346
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Re: Best Nick Ever?

Postby ct2346 » Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:32 am

llbean wrote:Check it out, just about the highest VGS for a cross with multiple SWs I've ever seen:

With Approval/Bonne Not has a VGS of 505.78 (!) based on 3 SWs incluing the G1 Winning Breeder's Cup Turf Champion Better Talk Now and the G1 Winner Bien Toi.

-llbean


Thank you for this interesting note. However Bonne Note is a mare and is responsible for both of the SW you mention. Her sire Bon Mot - it would be interesting to see if the stats hold for him.

I have located a filly from this direct female family (with Bonne Note tail female) running in the NE if you are really interested....

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Mahubah
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Postby Mahubah » Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:46 am

Fair Play/Rock Sand. As if Man o' War were not enough, Fair Play had 24 stakes winners from 81 foals (29.6%) produced from mares who were either daughters or granddaughters of Rock Sand. This percentage probably would have been far higher had most of the fillies resulting from this cross not been either unraced or very lightly raced (August Belmont II, who owned both stallions, had a strong prejudice against racing fillies much as he believed that it compromised their broodmare careers); of the 30 males produced from this cross, 19 became stakes winners (63.3%).
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llbean
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Postby llbean » Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:46 am

Thanks Mahubah for the fascinating figures.

Even bearing in mind that you only looked at males, a strike rate that high for a cross based on such a big sample size is absolutely incredible.
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."

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Postby Tiz » Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:56 am

Mahubah,
Tesio held beliefs similar to Mr. Belmont about mares. Do you know if there has ever been any real statistics compiled that prove or disprove their theory?

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Postby wilf » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:35 am

Oncidium xSummertime mares , Sovereign Edition x Le Filou mares both in New Zealand. There's many interesting and successful nicks to ponder.

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Postby Tiz » Sat Dec 05, 2009 5:52 am

Just bumping this up to see if Mahubah notices.

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Mahubah
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Postby Mahubah » Sat Dec 05, 2009 8:33 am

In my book American Classic Pedigrees, I looked at racing class of dams of winners of the Triple Crown events, the KY Oaks, and the CCA Oaks. Among these mares, nearly 16% had won a race equivalent to a grade III event or better. Since winners at such a level amount to less than 1% of the breed, it's pretty obvious that mares of good racing class were successful far and away out of proportion to their numbers.

Hard raced mares do have a disadvantage compared with their more lightly raced sisters in that they start their breeding careers later. A mare that retires at age 6 has three fewer opportunities to produce a foal than one that retires at 3, all other things being equal, and younger mares are both more likely to receive better breeding opportunities and less likely to have suffered accumulated genetic damage to their eggs.

By the way, I owe the breakdown on the Fair Play/Rock Sand cross to Rommy Faversham's book Samuel Riddle, Walter Jeffords, and the Dynasty of Man o' War. Definitely worth a look; it's available through http://www.horseinfo.com.
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Postby ASB » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:29 am

Mahubah wrote: less likely to have suffered accumulated genetic damage to their eggs.


What do you mean by genetic damage?

It seems to me if eggs were predisposed to something genetic, it would happen regardless of circumstance since it's in the genes.

Or did you mean a genetic issue that progresses with time, hence the older the mare the more likely to be affected?

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Patuxet
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Postby Patuxet » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:38 am

I was thinking the same thing.

Mahubah, could you -- or someone-- please explain the science behind this notion of accumulated genetic damage to eggs-- or provide a link to a site that does so? It's also not clear to me whether you're referring specifically to "hard racing" as the cause or as merely one of several contributing factors.

Perhaps this discussion belongs in another section of the forum?

Thanks.

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Postby Linda_d » Sat Dec 05, 2009 2:52 pm

Mahubah wrote:In my book American Classic Pedigrees, I looked at racing class of dams of winners of the Triple Crown events, the KY Oaks, and the CCA Oaks. Among these mares, nearly 16% had won a race equivalent to a grade III event or better. Since winners at such a level amount to less than 1% of the breed, it's pretty obvious that mares of good racing class were successful far and away out of proportion to their numbers.

Hard raced mares do have a disadvantage compared with their more lightly raced sisters in that they start their breeding careers later. A mare that retires at age 6 has three fewer opportunities to produce a foal than one that retires at 3, all other things being equal, and younger mares are both more likely to receive better breeding opportunities and less likely to have suffered accumulated genetic damage to their eggs.

By the way, I owe the breakdown on the Fair Play/Rock Sand cross to Rommy Faversham's book Samuel Riddle, Walter Jeffords, and the Dynasty of Man o' War. Definitely worth a look; it's available through http://www.horseinfo.com.


I think part of this belief stems from the anecdotal evidence of great race mares that did not reproduce in the stud. Lots of mares are difficult to get in foal or have trouble carrying a foal to term and lots more don't produce foals as good as themselves often, but nobody notices that if it's an unraced mare. They notice it if it is a mare that was a champion, however.

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Postby Nessa » Sat Dec 05, 2009 3:50 pm

I think what Mahubah is saying is that a mare like a woman has all the eggs she is ever going to have from the moment she is born. The older the mare, the older the eggs and the more likely there will be genetic damage to the resulting foal.

I have always believed that great mares aren't usually bred with the thought of maximizing their own genetic potential. Stallions are usually bred to mares that the stallion masters think will maximize their chances at getting winners. Great race mares are usually bred to whatever stallions are considered the best at the time, and it doesn't matter if they don't fit the mare or not.
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Mahubah
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Postby Mahubah » Sat Dec 05, 2009 7:53 pm

Nessa has it. Eggs are subject to damage from exposure to radiation, chemicals, and so on -- the older the egg, the more chances it has to be adversely affected. This is believed to be a primary reason why older women are more prone to producing children with birth defects, although the vast majority of babies born to older mothers are still just fine. I doubt hard racing has much to do with this in the mare; it would be more a matter of cumulative exposure to pesticides, natural/artificial sources of radiation, etc., and would affect all mares as they age.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis