Is the 2010 Kentucky Derby picture more clear now?

[horse]

The winner shall come from this Graded Stakes earnings list.

Here’s the Kentucky Derby 136 Graded Stakes Earnings Top 40 through April 10, which is based on known intentions or a consideration to run in the Kentucky Derby (with last week’s ranking on the Graded Stakes Earnings List):

1. (1.) Lookin At Lucky ($1,480,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (trained by Bob Baffert)

2. (2.) Noble’s Promise ($738,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Ken McPeek)

3. (3.) Rule ($645,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

4. (4.) Sidney’s Candy ($630,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (John Sadler)

5. (5.) Eskendereya ($600,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

5. (New) Line of David ($600,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (John Sadler)

7. (6.) Mission Impazible ($473,434) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

8. (7.) Ice Box ($457,500) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Nick Zito)

9. (New) Stately Victor ($451,112) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Mike Maker)

10. (8.) Endorsement ($400,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Shannon Ritter)

11. (9.) Conveyance ($386,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Bob Baffert)

12. (10.) American Lion ($378,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Eoin Harty)

13. (14.) Dublin ($373,208) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (D. Wayne Lukas)

14. (25.) Super Saver ($363,832) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

15. (11.) Discreetly Mine ($340,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

16. (12.) Dean’s Kitten ($326,475) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Mike Maker)

17. (15.) Interactif ($307,950) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)?

18. (13.) Awesome Act ($285,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Jeremy Noseda)

19. (34.) Paddy O’Prado ($250,950) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Dale Romans)

20. (16.) Homeboykris ($250,500) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Rick Dutrow Jr.)

21. (21.) Uh Oh Bango ($237,952) – Unknown (Kory Owens)

22. (17.) Jackson Bend ($230,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Nick Zito)

23. (18.) Backtalk ($225,916) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Tom Amoss)

24. (19.) Aikenite ($221,750) – Unknown (Todd Pletcher)

25. (20.) Make Music for Me ($218,750) – Unknown (Alexis Barba)

26. (t-22.) Odysseus ($183,750) – Unknown (Tom Albertrani)

27. (t-22.) A Little Warm ($180,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Tony Dutrow)

27. (t-22.) Setsuko ($180,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby (Richard Mandella)

29. (26.) Pleasant Prince ($166,250) – Unknown (Wesley Ward)

30. (27.) Tempted to Tapit ($156,000) – Unknown (Steve Klesaris)

31. (28.) Caracortado ($153,000) – May 1 Kentucky Derby or May 15 Preakness (Mike Machowsky)

32. (29.) Yawanna Twist ($147,000) – Unknown (Rick Dutrow Jr.)

33. (30.) Connemara ($138,500) – April 17 Coolmore Lexington (Todd Pletcher)

34. (31.) Schoolyard Dreams ($137,500) – Unknown (Derek Ryan)

35. (32.) Northern Giant ($132,000) – Unknown (D. Wayne Lukas)

36. (33.) Eightyfiveinafifty ($120,000) – April 24 The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial (Gary Contessa)

37. (New) First Dude ($97,500) – Unknown (Dale Romans)

38. (35.) Alphie’s Bet ($90,000) – Unknown (Alexis Barba)

39. (36.) Drosselmeyer ($87,000) – April 17 Coolmore Lexington or May 15 Preakness (Bill Mott)

40. (37.) Pulsion ($85,000) – Unknown (Patrick Biancone)

- END -
Kentucky Derby 136
Photo by Churchill Downs Incorporated Click to Enlarge

[zinn21]

It's about as clear as mud.. Whoever wins it better bring their A game because half the field looks like it has a serious shot.

[horsenuts]

Eskendeyra is a clear cut above....... but that doesn't mean he'll win....... just ask Holy Bull or Point Given. The Derby is a tough race to win even with a very good horse. Many variables arise and until they run over the CD surface you never know which horse will take to the track. In '91 as the favorite Hansel didn't run a jump on Derby day but came back to win the Preakness by 7 and followed that by winning the Belmont. Point Given did similar as he just didn't take to the CD track yet came right back to win the Preakness and Belmont as well.

[ElPrado]

At LEAST half the field looks more like they would be better off sitting in a stall munching hay. This is the strangest Derby field I've seen, ever, and I've been following racing since the 60's.

[Derby2004]

Now the picture is worse. It takes a whopping 250k to get in. I love the way lineof David fought off super saver and Dublin. The bluegrass was an impressive show by sharply victor. Both of these horses were nowhere in the derby picture before yesterday. But how do you really compare these horses to the other 18? And it's even worse for me cuz Jackson bend is sitting at 22 on the list. So now zito has a decision to make. Run him next weekend and then if he hits the board he has to turn around in two weeks for the derby. And he is one tough little horse so I think he can do it. Or he waits and sees if two horses defect. But there's some damn good horses that will be run next weekend that would make him fall further. So I say run him next weekend

[Patuxet]

If Jackson Bend is indeed a "tough little horse" he should have no trouble running in the Derby two weeks later.

Once upon a time when the breed seemed to be made of sturdier stuff the Blue Grass Stakes was run only nine days before the Derby which the winner frequently went on to win.

During one 14-year period The Blue Grass produced nine Derby winners, starting with Tomy Lee (1959) and followed by Decidedly (1962), Chateaugay (1963), Northern Dancer (1964), Lucky Debonair (1965), Proud Clarion (1967), Forward Pass (1968), Dust Commander (1970) and Riva Ridge (1972).

From 1989 on the Blue Grass has been run three weeks before the Derby and since the change only one of its 21 winner has gone on to win the Derby -- Strike The Gold (1991).

[dublino]

Eskendeyra is a clear cut above.......

Way too slow of a horse

I love the way lineof David fought off super saver and Dublin.

Fought off?
The jockey on Dublin needs shooting.

With a better ride in the Derby Dublin looks good to me, I'll be backing him e/w.

[Derby2004]

Ok Dublin might not have had the greatest ride. Super saver came up and Dublin but you have to like the way the no name horse turned them away. I thought he was gonna fade at the turn for home. But he didn't. I was all for Dublin or nobles promise to win. Wouldve saved Jackson bend a spot in the earnings. And I do believe that Jackson would be able to turn around in two weeks. I don't think waiting to see who defects is an option. Too many good horses running in the derby trial and Lexington stakes. Never wouldve thought 230k wouldn't get a horse in. Any one of the top 15 can win this thing.

[FOS]

hi Derby2004...hi Patuxet

... I love the way lineof David fought off super saver and Dublin.

When Line of David turned for home I said...now we'll see how 'brave' he is. Well he showed us; he dug deep...gave it his all...and did prevail. An impressive effort...and hard-fought victory (in a million dollar race no less).

Line of David gave notice he's got talent...guts...tenacity...and no quit in him; BUT (based on what I've seen of him) I don't sense that the mile and quarter KyDerby is something he's best suited for. LODavid was all out and did prevail (last eighth in a rather pedestrian 12.85); but, it should be noted he carried a mere 118 pounds...whereas the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place finishers were toting 122. LODavid will pick up 8 pounds in the KyDerby...and have to carry 126 going the mile and a quarter.

Weight aside (for now), I get a sense (based on what I've seen of LODavid thus far) the mile and a quarter KyDerby will VERY likely be too much for him.

... And it's even worse for me cuz Jackson bend is sitting at 22 on the list. So now zito has a decision to make. Run him next weekend and then if he hits the board he has to turn around in two weeks for the derby.

Would it surprise you if Nick Z recommended (to Team Jackson Bend) that (even if JB met the graded earnings threshold) the colt be pointed elsewhere than the KyDerby?

If Jackson Bend is indeed a "tough little horse" he should have no trouble running in the Derby two weeks later.

Running in the KyDerby is one thing...being a threat to win it is another thing altogether . The words Jackson Bend a Mile And A Quarter and KentuckyDerby just don't sound like a winning formula/combination.

How about the words Jackson Bend and Seven Furlongs and Kings Bishop? Yes it's months away...but that seems (to me anyway) to be a Grade 1 possibility worthy serious consideration/circling on the calendar.

And he is one tough little horse so I think he can do it.

Jackson Bend is a tough little horse, but he seems to be screaming that he's barely a threat (if a threat at all) to win versus quality stakes competition at a mile and an eighth...much less at a mile and a quarter in the KyDerby.

Or he waits and sees if two horses defect. But there's some damn good horses that will be run next weekend that would make him fall further. So I say run him next weekend

It'll be interesting to see what Zito/Team Jackson Bend decides to do.

Best.

Respectfully

[toadie]

I was on the rail right at the finish line for the Arkansas Derby and IMHO, 2 more strides and Line of David would not have been the winner. I honestly didn't even know who he was, but in the post parade I thought Damn!, what a good lookin' horse. I was really disappointed about the horrible trip that Noble's Promise got.

As far as the Derby goes, I'm wishin' and a hopin' that Setsuko gets in

[Derby2004]

I think the Preakness is more setup for jacksons style of running. But I think he's worthy of a shot in the derby. For one zito has ice box and needs some speed in there. This derby is not setting up like previous running. There are half the horses on one end of the scale and the other half on the other end in regards to speed versus stamina. There are a few horses I wouldn't call derby style runners in the top 20. Jackson running in the derby is not a bad thing to me. Running in the Preakness is a better idea and I'm looking forward to a showdown with d'funnybone. I wouldn't be shocked if they did pull him off the derby picture. I'm biased cause I have a mare that just got bred to hear no evil and I'm very high on him. As far as line of David goes he had a gritty performance against 3 of the best 3 year olds in Dublin, super saver and nobles promise. And you have to respect that. So it wouldn't be a shock if he pulled an upset in the derby.

[KAL]

Actually, to me, it would be a complete shock if Line of David hit the board in the KY Derby.

Everyone is giving the horse all kinds of credit, and he did prove game, however where is the love for the ride Jon Court gave him. When he got the lead I thought he would be cooked by 1/2 mile... then I noticed something interesting... Court got him to slow, controlled the pace, backed him up and left something for the turn for home. Watch the replay if you get a chance and see the restraint Court has on him down the backstretch. Court literally backed up the race. Once they hit the turn, all Court had left to do was let the horse go and hope he had enough. Oaklawn has a fairly short stretch... and it was just short enough. Fantastic ride.

Probably should have been pressured far more on the backstretch, but other jocks were probably worried about other horses and figured this one would come back to them. Borel should have known better, he has enough experience at Oaklawn and knows Court well enough... and might have had enough horse. Anyway... the horse was game and did fight back, but only because Court left enough in the tank. I don't think this will work with the longer distance, longer stretch, and inclusion of more speed in the KY Derby.

If you "must" jump on the wagon of a longshot winner of a prep, my advice would be to let others "have" Line of David. Personally, I would be more interested in this critter for the Preakness than the Derby. If I were Sadler, I would probably lean toward skipping the Derby... unless ownership told me otherwise.

However, I am pretty certain if I were in the shoes of the ownership, I would go to the Derby... lifetime dream... maybe only once in a lifetime... plus, who knows... these are living, breathing, explosive and unpredictable critters... and the Derby has seen its share of strange things.

[Tappiano]

The horse who gets the best trip will with the derby. More often than not, that is not the same as the best horse in the race.