The Future of American Horseracing.

[Shammy Davis]

With all the national and world economic woes taking top billing on the TV news and in our thoughts, I got to thinking about the future of horseracing. The central bank just announced that it was holding rates at 1/4% thorough July 2013. That doesn't show they have any confidence in a rebounding economy does it? As far as Wall Street, the investor doesn't know what's happening from day to day. One day the market is in free fall and the next day it recovers what it lost. It should give up on the "Bulls and the Bears" because the investor is getting "Skunked." It is apparent to no one's great surprise that like most every major industry in the U. S., horseracing is facing some very serious challenges. Curious, I googled the topic and really didn't come up with much. Horseracing is not on the minds of any economists at the moment. I thought this November 2010 Paul Moran article did a good job of identifying some of the problems. We've been looking at the situation with unwanted racehorses for sometime. It certainly has put a strain on the tracks, owners, and trainers. My opinion is the problem is going to increase as many of the OTTB adoption organizations are already tasked to the limit. Beyond that industry leaders have provided or offered little if any direction to bringing the paying fan base back to "live" racing or developing a new younger fan base. I've noticed that in Australia that new high tech betting applications have increased interest (betting while races are being run) while in the U. S. horsemen are still trying to get there share of the take from the Racinos to keep their horse fed and running. It won't be long before the casinos tell the horsemen to shut up or haul to another track. In the U. S. those in the money are the owners of the stallions. They will continue to stay in the money because they are in leadership positions. Auction houses are controlling sales to the chagrin of lesser producers. The consolidation of track managements under the likes of Stronach and Churchill have not been productive for the industry. Maryland and California are facing severe problems. CA is trying to solve its problems with a bigger take-out. The Kentucky Derby is still the premier horserace and KY stills stands the best stallions, but it can't keep producing mares in the state and if you don't have the $ you are not going to ship in when stud fees are high along with high day rates. In states with limited racing or no racing breeder awards are as up and down as a kid on a pogo stick. Some of the articles I read were still focusing on cleaning up the game by eliminating raceday drugs and illegal activities as the solution. To me that is history. The sport has bigger problems and cleaning up the game is just one minor step in the right direction. No body is going to track unless its a big race and there is a social reason to attend.

I was wondering what others on this board might be thinking. Is Moran on target or is he missing something? Is this conversation too late?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/ ... id=5863756

[ratherrapid]

my vote would be that shammy davis replace paul moran at espn as step #1.

seriously, can u get any gloomier than that piece of garba'ge by moran? Shammy's post was more informative and spot on!

possibly we're already beginning to see a turn around imo. sport made for the internet. personally I am still waiting to see a Zenyatta Lisa G. Fly video add on ESPN main page listing today's national pick six pots and links were to place a bet.. Unlimited market out there. Stronach will figure it out somewhere around his 90th birthday.

[DDT]

Moran just loves to go off. Simulcasting and the Breeders Cup have damn near ruined racing. Simulcasting put an end to on track attendance and handle and the Breeders Cup has changed the way owners and trainers race their top horses, racing less and less throughout the year waiting for that big purse at the end of the year and championship status. Until tracks learn how to cooperate with each other the product will continue to be diluted and not generate the amount of handle needed to sustain operations, or they could end up like Delaware Park, small fields, $60K in live handle and only a handful of on track fans. Sooner or later the tracks will be forced to cooperate or fold.

DDT

[Shammy Davis]

http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/08/1 ... is-on.html

[Shammy Davis]

http://jockeyclub.com/resources%5Cselected_exhibits.pdf

[Shammy Davis]

http://www.aolnews.com/2010/11/04/zenya ... le-future/

[bdw0617]

I can honestly say, I have never seen a positive Moran article.

[Shammy Davis]

Here is an interesting interview about the state of horseracing in the UK.

http://www.priceform.com/interviews/4_t ... nston.html

[ratherrapid]

what would be the reaction of all those owners and trainers at the smaller tracks to this fellow's call for fewer races and meetings? horse racing is in trouble. it must be too many races and race tracks (instead of lack of advertising, promotion, marketing, and trainers injuring every horse they get a hold of.)

[zinn21]

DDT wrote:

Simulcasting put an end to on track attendance

You know that might just be the bottom line to this whole thing. With bettors able to pick and choose the tracks they want to play we really don't need nearly as many tracks or horses. Which is a good thing since owners are are exiting stage left at an ever increasing rate.

Maybe we should lower takeout for bets made on sight at the racetrack. An incentive to get in your car and go to the track.

[bdw0617]

DDT wrote:

Simulcasting put an end to on track attendance

You know that might just be the bottom line to this whole thing. With bettors able to pick and choose the tracks they want to play we really don't need nearly as many tracks or horses. Which is a good thing since owners are are exiting stage left at an ever increasing rate.

Maybe we should lower takeout for bets made on sight at the racetrack. An incentive to get in your car and go to the track.

All simulcast did, was help point out the weak points in racing and that is, the crappy racing.

people no longer, have a reason to get in the car, drive, buy admission, parrking, to watch a bunch of cheap horses run just to make a wager. i can do that from home

but there will always be a market for good racing on track. we even do this subconciouswlyi. i will sit at home and wager and watch but come say, arinasas derby day, my butt is in the stands. and then don't even consider going back to the track the next day

[JimbleBrimble]

Simulcasting and the Breeders Cup have damn near ruined racing.

This is brain-dead thinking. Simulcasting was only semi-embraced by the near-sighted fools who have been ru(i)nning racing, and it is that sub-par common sense that is ruining racing.

Simulcasting is the result of new and better technology that one could never have enjoyed whilst in a boxcar enroute from Washington DC to Bowie Race Course in the winter of 1964.

Simulcasting, when applied fully and correctly, should and will open the doors to much greater fan interest all over the continent and the world.

We've already evolved from a place where the Del Mar results were little more than a few column inches in the Saratoga Form 30 years ago to a time when they are right in our face just as soon as the "official" sign is lighted (and vice versa).

Unfortunately racing has been saturated by track operators who know nothing more than to stand there with their hands out. The prevailing thought among them is that both the fans who foot the bills for the whole thing, and the states in which those tracks operate, somehow owe something to those track operators. This is the cause for the illusion you have that "Simulcasting... (has) damn near ruined racing".

[ratherrapid]

+1

[Marsalon]

American horse racing is in big trouble and on the way out, it appears.

I give big credit for much of this decline to the surly, condescending, rude parimutual clerks whose strong unions prevented the bad apples from being fired. The clerks were often the customer's only contact with the industry and back in the 60s and 70s treated their patrons like crap. So fans gradually stopped coming . . .

I know the story is much more complex than this but I'm sure the clerks had a lot to do with it.

[Shammy Davis]

I'm somewhat surprised that this thread hasn't received more hits. It is like everyone is trying to ignore what might be inevitable.

There have been a couple of research papers related to the cost and economic utility of the Thoroughbred as it pretains to horseracing. There have also been a couple of research papers that addressed whether horse ownership could be truly treated as a business and benefit the industry. For the most part sports in general has a great many exceptions to the business rules. Like horseracing, the value of the athlete is a subject of great concern and interest but the factors of paying great athletes to play professional sports has great economic return with one exception: Horseracing. The conclusions of the authors are academic and somewhat disparent and really have no value because it is unlikely that anyone in the industry will take them seriously. Simply, the rich and powerful in the horseracing industry need no lessons on the current economic reality of horseracing.

The other side of the coin is what JimbleBrimble suggests that track owners are not operating tracks to the benefit of the industry and the public as a whole. Track owners and horsemen are looking for a "hand out." True. The casino industry is and will continue to be happy to oblige because it realizes that tracks are just one stepping stone to the expansion of gambling in the U. S. I prefer to stay out the "simultcasting and OTB" debate for now because I've not read anything that directly places blame on them for the reduction in track attendance.

There are two sides to the horseracing coin. One side is horse ownership. Currently, no one seems to agree with the idea that racehorses should be valued consistent with their economic utility. That simply means that what an owner pays for the horse is consistent with the honest expectation of financial return. The other side of the coin is that track owners, horse racing officials, and the Jockey Club have lost sight of their mission. This occurred right after WWII. Simply, the industry leaders and track owners have to acknowledge that horse racing is nothing more than entertainment and that it should be displayed and produced as such.

In Europe and the UK, it appears that both sides of the coin are being recognized and the state of their industry is good. Australia, Hong Kong, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Indonesia, and South American racing, just to name a few, can be included. Personally, I impressed with Canadian industry.

As long as American horseracing is segmented into small organizations, each with a part of the pie, the TB racehorse industry is doomed. We can't expect that the JC members will do anything to change the downward spiral because they have been running the registration side of the show without change too long and it's unlikely they will think outside the box. Secondly, they have influence over the entire industry. Strike One.

The NTRA and BC are for the most part minions of the JC. Strike two.

The track operators are boxed in between the individual state commissions (who actually limit productive expansion of the industry and encourage limitations on track and/or meet expansions) and the national organizations (NTRA, BC, TC) who provide much needed exposure for the tracks in the media. Foul tip.

The sales organizations (Keenland, F-T, Barretts, Ocala, etc) and breeders are walking a very fine line between providing the industry quality athletes while making a hefty profit. The problem is that biases are included in their sales formats and there is an illusion that sales companies are being selective with the horses they catalog. Foul tip.

The stallion owners are not likely to enter the conversation because many are JC, NTRA, BC, et al, members or associates and it doesn't benefit them financially to become generous. Strike Three.

I can't speak to the nasty unionized pari-mutuel clerks because VA is a "right to work state." But it makes sense to me that if they are pissing off the customers they don't know what entertainment means.

There was a time not so long ago, that the American public had no idea what the Tour de France was? Today, across this nation and across the world cycling is becoming a not only a individual exercise but it is becoming a recognized sport, much like running did in the 1970's.

The industry is doomed because the powers that control the industry have become greedy and they have failed on the overall mission to provide entertainment to the public. The breeding and sales side of the industry has failed because they have become greedy and it doesn't make sense to them to take a reasonable profit on horses consistent with their economic utility when they could in fact hit the "mother lode" with a single yearling by a "hot" stallion.

So here we are checking to see what track will fold, what owners will flop, what breeders will have herd reductions, what stallions won't make it in KY, what sales will have the most "buy backs," what prince and sultan will throw millions at another "green something or another," and the high rolling casinos and racinos are making a big profits at the same places where the racing stands are empty.