Why is Danzig's AEI/CI [4.26/3.78] so much better than Storm Cat's AEI/CI [3.64/3.67]? The CI is roughly the same so the mares are probably getting bred to other stallions of similar quality.
Is it purely a matter of Danzig's superiority; or is that Danzig was bred to smaller books or that Clairbourne did a slightly better job of screening the book or that the Danzig's tended to either stay or be kept in training longer?
-llbean
Danzig's AEI/CI Vs. Storm Cat's AEI/CI
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Danzig has been much tougher to get a mare to than Storm Cat. In the past ten years, if you didn't know someone with shares in Danzig, you couldn't get a mare to him. Storm Cat on the other hand is available to just about anybody willing to cough up the stud fee. If you understand how AEI and CI are calculated, it is actually pretty easy for a stallion manager to manipulate the ratio by weeding out the mares that will hurt the ratio and accepting the mares that have a good chance of helping the ratio. As an example, as was discussed awhile back, Cee's Song is almost guaranteed to hurt Storm Cat's AEI/CI ratio. If you have a young stallion, you have to be pretty foolish to accept a mare like her, in Storm Cat's case, it really doesn't matter. So, I agree with your suggestion that it is basically a function of how Claiborne is managing Danzig.
I don't agree that a stallion manager would be "foolish" to accept a dam of a Grade 1 SW. Even if it somehow affected the CI, that effect would be negated by the potential bump in sales figures--which is where the real action is at especially for a newly minted sire. It's also a numbers game in another way: even the best sires only cover a limited amount of Grade 1 SPers. There are lots of other mares to balance out the ratio.
But Cees Song is a problem in another way: she freaked so much with an otherwise mediocre stallion, she may not be a good bet to produce with another stallion.
But Cees Song is a problem in another way: she freaked so much with an otherwise mediocre stallion, she may not be a good bet to produce with another stallion.
Sysonby:
My computer crashed with my first two attempts to reply so I'll keep this short this time. All stakes winners are freaks (<5%). Mares that produce more than one stakes winner are freaks (<5%). Why send a mare who's filled her quota with another stud to your own, she'll most likely make your look bad, which is important when your trying to prove a young stud. JMHO
My computer crashed with my first two attempts to reply so I'll keep this short this time. All stakes winners are freaks (<5%). Mares that produce more than one stakes winner are freaks (<5%). Why send a mare who's filled her quota with another stud to your own, she'll most likely make your look bad, which is important when your trying to prove a young stud. JMHO
In today's thoroughbred world the most important thing for a vast majority of the breeding industry is tied to $$ not necessarily performance. Additionally, the most sought after commodity is a very well heeled colt who is thought to have a "stallions" pedigree. This pedigree comes from the female family, thus a top mare with a top pedigree will be welcome in any stallions book.
Also, I believe history has shown that the percentages are far greater for a mare to throw a second stakes winner than a mare who has not produced one at all. Now, this may be the result of her being bred to superior stallions, or it may be because she is simply a superior producer, either way, one peruse through the stallion directory will easily take the place of trying to hunt down this research.
In the case of Danzig and Storm Cat, I am not sure you can compare one to the other, rather, perhaps, they should be considered similar unto themselves. I believe it is only about 20% (or fewer) stallions whose AEI exceeds their CI, and in Storm Cat and Danzig's case this is a fantastic accomplishment given the high CI they both possess.
Also, I would not wish to be the one to try to compare or contrast the handling of Storm Cat by Overbrook to Danzig by Claiborne. Personally, I think both farms have done a magnificient job. Overbrook has had the advantage of owning Storm Cat, thus they can make decisions in a different manner and they can be choosier in the numbers and the mates. Danzig, because of his age, health, and desires of his ownership, is managed in a much different manner. The ownership group must be considered and their rights and desires accommodated, thus limitations will be naturally set.
In either case, if someone wants to give away a breeding right to either, I will be happy to use it.
Also, I believe history has shown that the percentages are far greater for a mare to throw a second stakes winner than a mare who has not produced one at all. Now, this may be the result of her being bred to superior stallions, or it may be because she is simply a superior producer, either way, one peruse through the stallion directory will easily take the place of trying to hunt down this research.
In the case of Danzig and Storm Cat, I am not sure you can compare one to the other, rather, perhaps, they should be considered similar unto themselves. I believe it is only about 20% (or fewer) stallions whose AEI exceeds their CI, and in Storm Cat and Danzig's case this is a fantastic accomplishment given the high CI they both possess.
Also, I would not wish to be the one to try to compare or contrast the handling of Storm Cat by Overbrook to Danzig by Claiborne. Personally, I think both farms have done a magnificient job. Overbrook has had the advantage of owning Storm Cat, thus they can make decisions in a different manner and they can be choosier in the numbers and the mates. Danzig, because of his age, health, and desires of his ownership, is managed in a much different manner. The ownership group must be considered and their rights and desires accommodated, thus limitations will be naturally set.
In either case, if someone wants to give away a breeding right to either, I will be happy to use it.
But there is a lot more to making a stallion than worrying about how the mare might screw up the CI. In my experience, CI doesn't even really come into play until the stallion has at least three full crops running. Up to then, other indexes are paramount--how are the babies selling; how many are getting to the races; what is the average winning distance; what is the average winning purse and the average money earned per start and what kind of races are they competitive in? If the stallion performs poorly in enough of these earlier measures, no one is going to care about a stallion's CI ratio.
Dear Birdie must have an enormous production index. I can't imagine a stallion manager not being delighted if she was in his application in box. She's a quality mare who knows how to throw runners--just what a young stallion needs.
Dear Birdie must have an enormous production index. I can't imagine a stallion manager not being delighted if she was in his application in box. She's a quality mare who knows how to throw runners--just what a young stallion needs.
Hi all,
Wow, lots to reply to.
Dave, AEI/CI are of no interest to stallion managers when they are selecting mares. Of interest to the stallion manager would be whether a proven mare would work with his stallion and if there is an inkling of possibility - he'd take her. Every other Claiborne stallion including Seeking The Gold has an AEI lower than their CI.
The AEI/CI has interest and meaning to you but as long as those figures don't hurt the stallion's stud fee, the farm isn't interested in them. What the stallion farms ARE interested in is the sales price of (especially) yearlings because they are the underpinnings of the stallions fee. Storm Cat is $500,000 because of the sales averages of his yearlings. The simple formula used is: SalesPrice / 2 - $5,000 = StudFee.
Capote's AEI was always well below his CI (1.76/2.52) but his yearling sales prices held for years and his fee ranged between 30K-75k for most of his career. If you're implying that because of these numbers he was overpriced? I'd agree.
I don't agree that Storm Cat was more accessible in recent years than Danzig. Each of the last 4 years (that I can remember and perhaps more) there have been at least 2-4 seasons to Danzig auctioned at the Stallion Access auctions held by Fasig Tipton. I know people who were able to get to Danzig, not to Storm Cat.
Sysonby, you're right that the AEI is not a mature indicator for several years. I don't believe that AWD and other technical numbers matter to buyers though. What matters is whether the sire has gotten precocious and classic oriented sons as well as graded winners of either sex. The stud fee (sales prices) will diminish over time unless there are G1 winners in the mix. Take a look at Devil His Due's sales prices at Keeneland in 2003 (less than 20K) and in 2004 with 2 new G1 winners at almost 40k. It'a all about hope and perception. If the buyers perceive that a stallion is getting important runners (even if a small percentage of his get are doing well - like Pulpit) they will have hope of a top horse and buy accordingly.
Kal, good points - we often seem to see eye-to-eye
. About 1/3rd of stallions have AEI higher than CI (rather than 20%) according to Bloodhorse.
The simple facts about Storm Cat and Danzig are that they are both top sires, Storm Cat even more commercially popular thatn Danzig and Danzig has always had better numbers.
Danzig has 18% SW compared to Storm Cat at 13%.
Danzig has 10% GSW - not sure about Storm Cat.
Danzig has 5% G1SW compared to 3% for Storm Cat.
Simply put, Danzig has more and better quality SWs on balance than Storm Cat.
The fact that Danzig can carry enormous averages in the sales, has better numbers and was listed at half of Storm Cat's fee is interesting. The market continues to love Storm Cat and that's the bottom line.
Regards,
Pete
Wow, lots to reply to.
Dave, AEI/CI are of no interest to stallion managers when they are selecting mares. Of interest to the stallion manager would be whether a proven mare would work with his stallion and if there is an inkling of possibility - he'd take her. Every other Claiborne stallion including Seeking The Gold has an AEI lower than their CI.
The AEI/CI has interest and meaning to you but as long as those figures don't hurt the stallion's stud fee, the farm isn't interested in them. What the stallion farms ARE interested in is the sales price of (especially) yearlings because they are the underpinnings of the stallions fee. Storm Cat is $500,000 because of the sales averages of his yearlings. The simple formula used is: SalesPrice / 2 - $5,000 = StudFee.
Capote's AEI was always well below his CI (1.76/2.52) but his yearling sales prices held for years and his fee ranged between 30K-75k for most of his career. If you're implying that because of these numbers he was overpriced? I'd agree.
I don't agree that Storm Cat was more accessible in recent years than Danzig. Each of the last 4 years (that I can remember and perhaps more) there have been at least 2-4 seasons to Danzig auctioned at the Stallion Access auctions held by Fasig Tipton. I know people who were able to get to Danzig, not to Storm Cat.
Sysonby, you're right that the AEI is not a mature indicator for several years. I don't believe that AWD and other technical numbers matter to buyers though. What matters is whether the sire has gotten precocious and classic oriented sons as well as graded winners of either sex. The stud fee (sales prices) will diminish over time unless there are G1 winners in the mix. Take a look at Devil His Due's sales prices at Keeneland in 2003 (less than 20K) and in 2004 with 2 new G1 winners at almost 40k. It'a all about hope and perception. If the buyers perceive that a stallion is getting important runners (even if a small percentage of his get are doing well - like Pulpit) they will have hope of a top horse and buy accordingly.
Kal, good points - we often seem to see eye-to-eye
. About 1/3rd of stallions have AEI higher than CI (rather than 20%) according to Bloodhorse.
The simple facts about Storm Cat and Danzig are that they are both top sires, Storm Cat even more commercially popular thatn Danzig and Danzig has always had better numbers.
Danzig has 18% SW compared to Storm Cat at 13%.
Danzig has 10% GSW - not sure about Storm Cat.
Danzig has 5% G1SW compared to 3% for Storm Cat.
Simply put, Danzig has more and better quality SWs on balance than Storm Cat.
The fact that Danzig can carry enormous averages in the sales, has better numbers and was listed at half of Storm Cat's fee is interesting. The market continues to love Storm Cat and that's the bottom line.
Regards,
Pete