the 2YO Death Spiral

[brogers]

In light of a new study that has come out to confirm that horses that race at two have longer and more lucrative careers, I have posted a comment on this which also considers the racing environment with smaller foal crops to come.

http://performancegenetics.com/2012/02/ ... th-spiral/

[Barcaldine]

Interesting article. Whether the conclusion would hold up for American racing is problematic, at best.

Anyone familiar with New Zealand 2yo racing (which is the study group) knows the great disparity between the racing culture there and in the U.S. Their horsemen (whom I consider among the best in the world) do not ask their babies for speed. They are generally guided by a mindset which aims for the longer Cup races. Most horses in training aren't whisked in and out of their stalls for a quick gallop/work on a hard dirt track; they are given hours to dawdle around, learning to relax while saving their big runs for a quick burst of speed at the end of their breeze. Many are then turned out in small grass paddocks.

Of course, all NZ training and racing is on turf, with a few exceptions (beach sand!). Very little training occurs at the racetrack; practically all trainers own private stables with vast grassland on which they condition their horses. NZ receives a fair amount of rain year round so it's rare to find a rock hard track there. People just don't abuse their babies like they do here. They care for their animals better than we do, IMO, and scoff at American hurry-up-and-get-it-done training methods.

So it comes as no surprise to me that NZ 2yo's develop stronger bone and mental maturity, which leads to longer racing careers.

To extrapolate from the NZ study that U.S. babies also benefit from 2yo racing would be unfounded. The two worlds are light years apart.

I know Dr. Bramlage came up with this proposition a while back but I question whether his work differentiated between 2yo's which raced earlier in the year, as opposed to later; and between 2yo sales graduates and non-sale horses. There are a lot of variables which can impact racing lifespan--merely tabulating the long-term success of 2yo starters vs non-starters seems far too simplistic to be viable.

[zinn21]

I have no problem racing two year olds as long as they are capable of handling the physical stress required to run. But there are percentage of two year olds that are not physically capable of handling the stress. Those who choose to push the envelope will likely compromise the horse's racing career.

The other piece to soundness and longevity is recovery time after extended periods of race training. Back in the day when racing shut down for most in September/October, two year olds were rested until February/ March allowing time for bone and muscle to remodel, strengthen etc. Today with year around racing the top two year olds shut down after the BC in November and are back at it by February. Most fall by the wayside before the Derby. IMO, there is not enough down time allowed for bone fatigued from continuous stress to recover.

[DDT]

Brogers

Although the racing and training are different here in North America, if one looks at 2010 North American racing figures, there were a little over 10,000 2 year olds that started at least one race. This is about 30% of the 2008 foal crop which was a little over 30,000 foals. Now, if we figure in a foals to starters percentage of 70% (a little high for the national average) that is another 10,000 horses from the crop, that leaves 10,000 foals that will start at 3 or older. I would think that the physical and mental advantage the 2 year olds enjoyed in 2011 would equate to longer racing career, in this case 2 years to 1, and probably higher earnings. I don't know for sure, but I think I might be willing to wager that the horses that raced at 2 will be on top.

DDT

[aurora]

Zinn21 I must disagree with your statement "... two year olds were rested until February/ March allowing time for bone and muscle to remodel, strengthen etc....'


Whaa? bone does not remodel while a two year old is resting. Muscle doesn't strengthen either.

[brogers]

A similar study in Australia found pretty much the same things, and while they race on turf, they have a strong accent on 2yo racing and they train for speed so it is a little more like the U.S

My greater concern is that when these smaller foal crops start to come through to the racetracks, the racing secretaries will give up writing 2yo races until late in the year so storied races like the Saratoga Special and Del Mar Futurity will start to fill with lesser quality horses and more worryingly trainers actually don't press on the horses at all at two which has the reverse effect to what everyone seems to think it has.

[Barcaldine]

A similar study in Australia found pretty much the same things, and while they race on turf, they have a strong accent on 2yo racing and they train for speed so it is a little more like the U.S .

Let's see it. I doubt the conclusions were parallel to the NZ study.

"My greater concern is that when these smaller foal crops start to come through to the racetracks, the racing secretaries will give up writing 2yo races until late in the year so storied races like the Saratoga Special and Del Mar Futurity will start to fill with lesser quality horses and more worryingly trainers actually don't press on the horses at all at two which has the reverse effect to what everyone seems to think it has."

Not surprisingly (!) I take the opposite view. Two year olds which start their racing careers at the end of the year will generally last longer than those which began before July 1. Joints dont close until 30 months of age---that's when baby racing should begin. Let the chips fall where they may when it comes to the future of stakes races early in the year. The Hollywood Juvenile Championship was once a very rich and prestigious race. It barely fills nowadays---at no loss to the sport

[brogers]

If you click on the link in the post where it references the Australian study, it takes you to it.

"Joints don't close until 30 months of age"....not true. Please reference your study where it says that they do.

Despite presented with evidence that two year old racing is important for a horse to have a long career, you are wanting to see less races???? That makes no sense.

[Barcaldine]

Your evidence is based on some New Zealand study taken of a small population of horses bred, raised and trained in the exact opposite manner of the U.S. Until you can PROVE your "A" grade for this report can be justified in a U.S. environment I give it almost as little credence as I give your nicking methodology.

Any number of vets will certify that most young horses' knees don't close until they are 2 1/2 years old (that's 30 months).

[Barcaldine]

TIMING AND RATE OF SKELETAL MATURATION IN HORSES,
With Comments on Starting Colts and the State of the Industry


©2005 By Deb Bennett, Ph.D.

The Schedule of Growth-Plate Conversion to Bone



The process of converting the growth plates to bone goes from the bottom of the animal up. In other words, the lower down toward the hoofs you look, the earlier the growth plates will have fused; and the higher up toward the animal's back you look, the later. The growth plate at the top of the coffin bone (the most distal bone of the limb) is fused at birth. What that means is that the coffin bones get no taller after birth (they get much larger around, though, by another mechanism). That's the first one. In order after that:

Short pastern - top and bottom between birth and 6 months.
Long pastern - top and bottom between 6 months and one year.
Cannon bone - top and bottom between 8 months and 1.5 years
Small bones of the knee - top and bottom of each, between 1.5 and 2.5 years
Bottom of radius-ulna - between 2 and 2.5 years
Weight-bearing portion of glenoid notch at top of radius - between 2.5 and 3 years
Humerus - top and bottom, between 3 and 3.5 years
Scapula - glenoid or bottom (weight-bearing) portion – between 3.5 and 4 years
Hindlimb - lower portions same as forelimb
Hock - this joint is "late" for as low down as it is; growth plates on the tibial and fibular tarsals don't fuse until the animal is four (so the hocks are a known "weak point" - even the 18th-century literature warns against driving young horses in plow or other deep or sticky footing, or jumping them up into a heavy load, for danger of spraining their hocks).
Tibia - top and bottom, between 3 and 3.5 years
Femur - bottom, between 3 and 3.5 years; neck, between 2.5 and 3 years; major and 3rd trochanters, between 2.5 and 3 years Pelvis - growth plates on the points of hip, peak of croup (tubera sacrale), and points of buttock (tuber ischii), between 3 and 4 years.

[brogers]

Wow.....you have cited a paper that is NOT peer reviewed. How about you try one that might appear in a equine journal that has a peer-review process.

[Barcaldine]

That's a pretty funny statement from a legend-in-his-own-mind who doesn't have any letters next to his name. Except, of course, the understood B.S.

[zinn21]

Aurora, I meant recovery from bone microfracture due to continuous stress..

[da hossman]

While I am no fan of nicking and have stated the basis for my disbelief on other threads, I have to take Byron Rogers side in this one. The study Barcaldine quotes must not be on Thoroughbreds as every equine surgeon will tell you that fetlocks (pasterns) are set by 6 weeks of age. That is why it is so critical to do PE's etc before the foal is 4 weeks old, otherwise any ankle/pastern deviation is irreversible.

To be so drastically mistaken in the first two joints she references certainly casts doubts on the rest of her study.

[kimberley mine]

Their horsemen (whom I consider among the best in the world) do not ask their babies for speed. They are generally guided by a mindset which aims for the longer Cup races.

But there are still a substantial number of sprinter and miler races, so that horses who don't have the wherewithall to run 2400m can still compete and make money, even for the babies.

Very little training occurs at the racetrack; practically all trainers own private stables with vast grassland on which they condition their horses.

Buh whut? Really? Then what was happening on that large green expanse in the middle of town at 6:30am when I was out for a run? And no, I am not talking about Ellerslie or Te Rapa.

What IS different about Aussie and Kiwi racing--VERY different in fact--is that the US has no formal system of trials like they do. The trials are where the performance of an animal is tested under racing conditions, everything from gate work to whether they have any speed in the lane to mental conditioning. The ones that have no ability never even make it to trial. The ones that have suspect ability might trial once or twice, and then move on to other careers. In a sense, if a 2yo has trialled and made it to the actual for-money races, it is already leaps and bounds ahead of your average bog-standard horse, in that there is a proven level of fitness and ability. The babies are also less green once they get into a "real" race.

http://www.tbaus.com/UserFiles/PDF/2yo% ... Trends.pdf

Read on the last page about trials...there is a comment about going from a 750m (just less than 4f) trial to a 1100m (5.5f) race being a huge step in fitness for a juvie. It is.

Notice also the table on number of races versus number of trials...juveniles in Australia are trialling much more frequently than the number of actual race starters would imply, meaning the ones that start an actual race are the ones most likely to win. That will skew the stats but it does not in any way diminish the outcome of the study.