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 Post subject: Hollywood
PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:58 am 
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http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... commitment

Does anybody out there have any plans when the other shoe drops and Hollywood Park is no more? Los Alamitos here we come?

jm

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:38 pm 
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I think at the end of the day, within the next 5 -7 years socal and nocal will consolidation to make one schedule. and I think that is what would be best for the long term interest of the sport in CA.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:52 pm 
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It will all pretty much mesh schedules into racing on another track. IF and IF they close, just go with the flow.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:36 am 
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bdw0617 wrote:
I think at the end of the day, within the next 5 -7 years socal and nocal will consolidation to make one schedule. and I think that is what would be best for the long term interest of the sport in CA.


IF that's the case then you've just siphoned about 1/3 of the purse money out of Cal racing from the food chain of owners, breeders, etc. The economics of scale are stretched. Most aren't making it as it is? Costs will go up (shipping/relocating horses). I don't see other costs (in California!) going down. Consolidation makes sense on the surface, but I don't think it can sustain an industry there. And then so many would have to relocate for 6 months or whatever.

jm

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:57 pm 
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Joltman wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
I think at the end of the day, within the next 5 -7 years socal and nocal will consolidation to make one schedule. and I think that is what would be best for the long term interest of the sport in CA.


IF that's the case then you've just siphoned about 1/3 of the purse money out of Cal racing from the food chain of owners, breeders, etc. The economics of scale are stretched. Most aren't making it as it is? Costs will go up (shipping/relocating horses). I don't see other costs (in California!) going down. Consolidation makes sense on the surface, but I don't think it can sustain an industry there. And then so many would have to relocate for 6 months or whatever.

jm



you are correct. it can't sustain. they have to downsize, the money just isn't there right now to support two successful full circuits in California. you can move money around, promise this, except that. But when 2 circuits combined on an avg Saturday might crack 5 million dollars in wagering.. the money just isn't there.


there is no way from an economical standpoint, with the decreased size in horse population, with the lack of times that we run our horses per month, there is not enough money to support both tracks with the current purse structure unless you want to turn GG into portland meadows south,. IN business you can't make decisions beucase they aren't convenient , you got to do what you got to do to stay afloat, and this is what they have to do. I mean as is, I can hardly play golden gate and I try to but there is no money there. by that i mean, half the races are just unplayable beucase someone at the track has put 1-2 grand on a horse and made it a crappy wager so i have to go somewhere else. and that's now. what's going to happen when there are less horses which means instead of 7 horses in a race there are 5 in combination with less money being wagered.

and you complain about the shipping and training fees now, how bad is it going to be when the avg field size is dipped and the amount of money being wagered is down another 30-40% in 2-3 years.

the only way they can survive is to cut down the amount of races and keep the field sizes up thus keeping avg race wagering somewhere along the lines of where it is now.

it's going to get so bad soon that it's not even about who is right or who is wrong the time for arguing over horse racing economic theories is about to go down the drain starting next year. it's about to go into okay if you don't take this we hae to shut down for good mode.

the most important ingredient for a track is avg field size because with that, you are guaranteed to make just about X amount of money give or take. you might have to cut days people aren't getting paid as much as they are usually getting paid, it might be harder for barns to run, but at least you are still alive and it's getting to that point in nocal now. At least you buy yourself time to get the business back in the right direction and to move back up one day hopefully soon. But by taking the well this is just not going to work route we will just run the number of days we run now and raise takeout to bring in more money or something along those lines you might as well go and get the bulldozers now. the market is too competitive for that to work

. that above all else has to be maintained. by that at least you give yourself an opportunity to eventually fight back by adding more days when the time is right based off the money you are making now. but

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:35 am 
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It can be sustained; the question is at what level.

I once thought the Preakness should be moved to CA but not now.

griff

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