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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:53 pm 
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Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2005 2:43 pm
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Location: Ohio
Has anyone seen the book yet? Plan to go from Sept. 18-21! Looking at fillies! Hope the $ are more reasonable!


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:29 pm 
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Grade II Winner

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OBS was a blood bath. I'm sure there will be tons of bargains in September. There just aren't enough buyers for the horses that are being sent to the sales. I'm so glad I sold both my weanling and yearling privately. October is no doubt going to be even worse than Keeneland.
For OBS:
For the two Open sessions, 371 horses sold for a total of $3,083,000, compared with 404 grossing $5,456,400 a year ago. The average price was $8,310, compared with last year's $13,506 while the median price was $4,500, compared with $9,500 in 2015. The buyback percentage was 37.7%; it was 19.8% a year ago.

It costs more than $4,500 to raise a horse from foaling to the sale and that doesn't factor in the stud fees.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:20 pm 
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Have to agree with Tap. I was at the select session and thought some pretty well-bred, nice-looking youngsters were going for low prices. I don't think it's going to be pretty at KeeSep for anyone but those selling the cream of the yearling crop and those hoping to buy at bargain rates.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:35 am 
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Freshman Sire
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hi Mahubah

Mahubah wrote:
Have to agree with Tap. I was at the select session and thought some pretty well-bred, nice-looking youngsters were going for low prices. I don't think it's going to be pretty at KeeSep for anyone but those selling the cream of the yearling crop and those hoping to buy at bargain rates.

Recent results and numbers speak volumes...mega LOUD and clear. Question is...how much longer can such pain and financial suffering be endured by so many?

Breeders may be eternal optimists, and absolutely love their horses; but, reality seems to be hitting extremely hard right now.

It will be interesting to see how Keeneland September fares, and what breeders and consignors experience and have to say.

Might be wise to fasten the seat belts.

Best to ya.

Respectfully


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:50 pm 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
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Location: Idaho
FOS;

Good to see you back on the PQ forum.

Shergar


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:49 am 
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2yo Maiden

Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:50 am
Posts: 88
Location: East Coast
I can honestly say that we breeders cannot take it much longer. I'm so tired of hearing the sales company presidents saying "it's more of the trend we have seen. There's buyers at the top of the market..." like it's somehow our fault. How dare we darken their door with our book 3 horses! Okay so what as an industry are we going to do to attract new people or bring old people back? The breeders are getting it from all sides at this point. The stud farms are WAY ahead of where the market is on stud fees. The auction companies are still taking huge entry fees and commissions on horses that are not even selling for enough to cover the enormous stud fees. Or are we just to the point where unless you have Havre de Grace and money to breed to Tapit or Warfront every year you just don't bother? The sport cannot survive on 200 horses a year. I'm pulling way back and planning my exit strategy. I cannot keep asking my husband to subsidize such deep and incredible losses. I have 2 fantastic foals heading to KeeNov. If they don't perform I'm out. They have both received rave reviews in ky, they are early big correct colts by hot new sires with solid well established female families. Not book 1 horses but certainly early book foals. If there is not a market for them then there is no market beyond book 1 and it will be time for me to take my ball and go home. Of course even "home" is screwing me right now since the state of PA owes me thousands in breeders awards. At least I'm only owed thousands, I'm sure Xanthus and Pin Oak Lane and others are owed tens if not hundreds of thousands at this point. I'm sure those operations are really feeling the strain. Well that's enough grumping from me! Time to go shovel more money... I mean feed to my stock.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:04 am 
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Location: Louisville, KY
I have been an avid watcher of this industry for the past 17 or so years and dipped my toe in the sales market here and there only to get it cut off. Five years ago I loosed the majority of my mare herd; three years ago I enacted my exit strategy - got my trainers license and cut back to breeding only what I could train myself. It's astonishing that there is a lack of homes for young stock and then subsequently the fields are just so SHORT. The breeding industry is in line for a major correction - stud fees are way too high; anticipated profits are out of line. I know what it costs me to raise a nice sound correct youngster on my farm.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:12 am 
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Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
With tracks closing down and the cost of grain stays high in the feed stores while farmers are not getting near those prices affects all breeders in whatever species raised. With the decline in wagering goes along with people making low wages has affected the whole gambling industry. We need to get people back to the races as tracks need to attract other horse people with offering horse shows, rodeos, cutting, dressage, jumping, and whatever else to be offered as alternative entertainment at our race tracks. Tracks have been so focused on racinos we need to get back to tracks to being good wholesum entertainment.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:22 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:55 pm
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Location: San Diego, Ca
Check out hip 3774 (Justin Philip) out of stakes winner Meditations. Meditations won the Three Ring Stakes by 10 3/4 lengths as a 2 year old. Was weighted at 112 lbs in the 2006 Experimental Handicap and on the Oaks trail till an injury ended her racing career. She has a 2 year old filly on the track by Colonel John working at Churchill Downs. Also, Meditations has a 1/2 sister by Alternation in the sale as well, hip 3516. These are not my horses, but I do own their half sister by Street Boss. I hope they sell well but I have a feeling they may end up as real bargain buys. Good luck!


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:19 am 
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They don't call it the Sport of Kings for nothing. The kings (or sheiks) rarely have to worry about Profit/loss. My dabbling in the breeding bus. is on hold. But sadly, as people lose money the market forces (if its a true market) will have to change. Nobody will pay the $20k stud fee to lose $25k. Maybe take the risk on a $5k fee. But ironically when everyone is bailing, will be the time to jump back in - if you have the guts and backing to do it.

I think, with Madelyn, breed to race can make it if, like Madelyn, you can control your costs... The smaller fields actually help some folks. IF the state breeders programs hold up (sorry for y'all in Pa...) And its always the need to hold out long enough just to get that one good one to carry the day.
Madelyn, what does it cost these days realistically to train a yearling to a 2yo start (assuming they make it), and beyond? (not asking for any personal info...)

jm

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:04 pm 
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Yearling

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Location: Virginia
I was at the VA TB Assoc. Yearling Futurity today -- there were three by Justin Phillip. I have to say I liked them all. The filly, o/o Fiona by Cuvee, was the nicest and placed fourth in a class with several nice fillies. The colts did not do as well but I would have placed them higher.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:01 am 
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Joltman wrote:
They don't call it the Sport of Kings for nothing. The kings (or sheiks) rarely have to worry about Profit/loss. My dabbling in the breeding bus. is on hold. But sadly, as people lose money the market forces (if its a true market) will have to change. Nobody will pay the $20k stud fee to lose $25k. Maybe take the risk on a $5k fee. But ironically when everyone is bailing, will be the time to jump back in - if you have the guts and backing to do it.

I think, with Madelyn, breed to race can make it if, like Madelyn, you can control your costs... The smaller fields actually help some folks. IF the state breeders programs hold up (sorry for y'all in Pa...) And its always the need to hold out long enough just to get that one good one to carry the day.
Madelyn, what does it cost these days realistically to train a yearling to a 2yo start (assuming they make it), and beyond? (not asking for any personal info...)

jm


Even a 5K stud fee has the same costs associated with getting that foal to the sales as a yearling. The market correction which has a smaller breeding pool of stallions means the farms control everything and have set fees that people have no choice but to pay if they want to have any chance of being "competitive". In the 10K and under space there is very little demand from anyone local but in Puerto Rico they hit the jackpot at the recent sale.

The future is in breeding syndicates. Get a group together to buy a few of the best mares your budget has, send to the best stallions in the range you can afford and then hope the foals turn out to be good physicals.

Also, even if you got that great deal on a stallion, you are competing with 100 or so other foals by the same sire at a sale. In that case it becomes is your mare better than the other mares.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:52 pm 
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Well that's the point of breed-to-race as the way to go. The breeding syndicates have potential in being competitive and making stallions, but if someone can race what they breed, and control costs, they've got a chance. There are stallions like Daaher that are well under 10k whose foals earn 2x the average with a decent crack at a SW. They don't face the sales arena and prep costs, and can actually treat a yearling like an individual, and not feel pressured to rush into a sale. Then again, if you've got one in training that can run, you can drop into a 2yo sale or private.

jm

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:22 pm 
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Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2005 2:43 pm
Posts: 200
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You don't play this game having short pockets even if you breed to race. I have tried since 1992 and everyday something happens that requires more $$. That being said, I have never had more enjoyment breeding, raising, racing the horses that we have owned. No stakes, allowance winners, but we run for claiming $$, and wins, places, and shows gave us thrills that most people will never have in a lifetime. It's like watching your child excel in sport at school (elementary, high school, college). We are forever blessed for the chance to be involved in thoroughbred racing.
I still plan to attend the sale between the 18th-24th. Hope the prices are not too high!!


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:20 am 
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Joltman wrote:
Well that's the point of breed-to-race as the way to go. The breeding syndicates have potential in being competitive and making stallions, but if someone can race what they breed, and control costs, they've got a chance. There are stallions like Daaher that are well under 10k whose foals earn 2x the average with a decent crack at a SW. They don't face the sales arena and prep costs, and can actually treat a yearling like an individual, and not feel pressured to rush into a sale. Then again, if you've got one in training that can run, you can drop into a 2yo sale or private.

jm


Not a stallion syndicate, I'm talking about a group of people who will band together and buy mares. Power in numbers, help defray some of the costs.

20dourmdd wrote:
You don't play this game having short pockets even if you breed to race. I have tried since 1992 and everyday something happens that requires more $$. That being said, I have never had more enjoyment breeding, raising, racing the horses that we have owned. No stakes, allowance winners, but we run for claiming $$, and wins, places, and shows gave us thrills that most people will never have in a lifetime. It's like watching your child excel in sport at school (elementary, high school, college). We are forever blessed for the chance to be involved in thoroughbred racing.
I still plan to attend the sale between the 18th-24th. Hope the prices are not too high!!


I am enjoying what I have done the past six years and I am looking forward to having my two year old, who is at Belterra Park, hopefully running later this year. You are right though, it's not for short pockets, but getting back to the earlier comments in this thread, the industry is marching down a dangerous path. Japan is now bearing the fruits of many decades of buying up our best bloodlines and are very competitive on the international stage, perhaps more than we are. They have the pockets, the funding and the desire to stick with their program. How many families are left in this sport that jumped in 20 years ago? We can't seem to get anyone to stick around for more than 4-5 years and while it seemed like a program that Classic Star had could have been successful, they had other "motives" that led it its demise.


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